FT's Lombard17 Dec 2014 06:38
Oil threat overshadows stress tests: That is a relief. All but one of the U.K.’s big banks could have survived a crisis played out against an economic backdrop that no longer exists. Since the Bank of England devised its stress tests — and focused them on a collapse in house prices, a drop in output and a rise in interest rates — the oil price has slumped. The new danger posed by loans to energy companies is highlighted in the BoE’s own Financial Stability Report. In a prescient note, Bernstein analyst Chirantan Barua argued that Barclays, HSBC and Standard Chartered appear most exposed to the oil and gas sector, while noting that participation in debt origination would not translate smoothly into balance sheet risk. We have no reason to believe that Co-op Bank has lent heavily to gum-chewing Nebraska oil frackers, apart from an erstwhile lemming-like appetite for bad risks. As expected, the Co-op failed the stress tests. Its headline capital ratio nosedived from 7.2% to -2.6% under a scenario that, if it were a real-world disaster rehearsal, would require the troubled bank to be stretchered to hospital. The BoE is requiring it to cut its risk-weighted assets by 40% to less than £7.5 billion. There may not be much of Co-op Bank left to float on the stock market, if it is ever ready to take that step.