Nationwide House Price Index30 Dec 2014 09:01
In December growth in UK house prices slowed to 0.2%, as expected, with the pace of annual house price growth softening for a fourth consecutive month from 8.5% in November to 7.2% in December.
A slight cooling of the still-frenetic London market was a key reason for the fall, with annual house price inflation in London decelerating to 17.8% in the fourth quarter from 21.0% in the third.
Prices increases are being restricted by tighter bank lending, with mortgage approvals retreating over the last five months to an 18-month low in November.
House prices were up 1.1% in the final quarter of the year compared to the previous year, which was the smallest quarterly gain since the second quarter of 2013 and down from gains of 1.6% in the previous period.
Nationwide's chief economist, Robert Gardner, said he expected the housing market to regain momentum in 2015.
"The slowdown in housing market activity is surprising given further steady gains in employment, a pick-up in wage growth (albeit from low levels) and the continued low level of mortgage rates.
"If the economic backdrop continues to improve as we and most forecasters expect, activity in the housing market is likely to gain momentum in the months ahead. Supply side developments will be crucial in determining the trajectory for prices.
"There are encouraging signs that construction is starting to pick up. Hopefully, this will set the stage for house price growth gradually converging with income growth in the quarters ahead."
Economists elsewhere agreed that there will be some pick-up in housing market activity during 2015 from current lows, with possible extra impetus from the increased likelihood that the Bank of England will not lift interest rates before late-2015.
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said he expected house prices to rise by a "solid but unspectacular 5% in 2015", compared to the double-digit annual house price increases seen this summer, as the weakening of buyer interest in houses bottoms out and consumer confidence and employment levels increase.
"Looking ahead, significant restraint on house buyer interest and prices is still expected to come from more stretched house prices to earnings ratios, tighter checking of prospective mortgage borrowers by lenders and the prospect that interest rates will eventually start to rise in 2015.
"Many people may also be deterred from buying houses because they look pricey in a number of areas after recent sharp rises."
Archer added that there were also some signs that the limited supply of houses is currently easing as an overall factor pushing up house prices, though it is likely to remain a "significant influence in some regions" for some time yet.