Member Info for mugginsthedog

Gwoods - I had not considered that and you might well be right. Some of the DVRG team have an ‘interesting’ history. It would certainly explain why they are so resistant to discussing the issues, get very exorcised when anyone makes even the slightest criticism and endlessly ramp.

NU - you seem very bitter, but frankly your Chamberlain comment is odious and you should apologise for it.

You also might want to address the issues rather than spouting vitriol.

Rather than speculating why I am invested David perhaps you would be better advised wondering why I invest than considering the issues raised. I get a torrent of personal abuse but nobody addresses the issues raised. Pretty much everyone on this BB ramps this share, there is virtually no critical analysis, yet over the last few months the SP continues to be flat at best. There are no serious institutional investors or major PIs. Have you ever stopped to think why this might be? Have you ever looked at what certain members of this management team have been involved with?

NU - rather a sad rant. I am a long term investor as I have made clear previously

David - with respect I am not at all sure that you are the one who is missing the big picture. DVRG originally said that we would get an update on progress by the end of last year. They then said that that would be pushed out into Q1 2021. The update did not say anything from the time of the AGM presentation which said that everything worked and was, and I quote, 'sorted'. Clearly nothing much has moved on, the testing is on an unbelievably small sample - a teeny fraction of the thousands that will be required before it gets anywhere near the market. No news on a timetable, no news on any major partners, no news on getting regulatory approval and no update how the huge costs (development, manufacture, regulation will be funded.

All the while GB continues to behave in an infantile way, efffing around on twitter trailing the RNS. Serious PIs and institutions will see this and all the various other black mark areas (Mrs GB share sales, NXD share awards, unearned shares from MW), not to mention the previous activities, and be turned off. I fear that this is what is happening.

HappyDays - I bow down to your amazing brains and business knowledge and insights.

It is clear that the market has given their opinion and has given the RNS as a big fat raspberry. Hardly surprising as the testing is months behind. The testing group is tiny and they have failed to attract significant government/commercial partners which they would have done if this was anywhere near ready and did as claimed.

The RNS is indeed an oddity. It was marketed several days in advance on twitter. Very strange as price sensitive information should be announced asap - by definition it should not be pre-announced. This is the kind of thing that will put off the more savvy PI and institutional partners.

Seems that the market broadly shares my news that the announcement was, at best, ho hum. They are doing little more than continuing testing which they have been doing for months (and failing to meet deadlines). The trial sample size is disappointingly, almost pathetically, small. More like the numbers that you would expect for a kids tea party than a proper trial.

DVRG has made a key part of its strategy partnership and collaboration. They have claimed on numerous occasions that they would rather have a smaller part of a larger pie than vice versa. It is strange, putting it mildly, that they do not seem to have a serious commercial partner here. DVRG clearly do not have the technical, financial or sales/distribution resources to complete the development far less get any product to market. Until they bring in a partner, be it government or commercial, I do not think that any serious PI or institution will take this very seriously. You only have to see the SP to be able to confirm that.

I had pretty low expectations but even these have not been met.

We already knew that the product was being tested - nothing new there. I am amazed that the trial size is so small. No indication when or if their would be a commercially available product. If this was such a great product governments and/or big corporates would be supporting this. There is no sign of this. TBH I was expecting an announcement that indicated ;
- Mass testing
- An indicative timetable
- Government or big corporate partnership.
We have got none of the above.

An RNS is supposed to communicate a message that is comprehensible to your average shareholder. Whenever an RNS includes so much incomprehensible mumbo-jumbo risks the perception that it deliberately intends to erect a fog of uncertainty.

I am sure that PaulCon can confirm that they have won lots of awards over the years but that has made little impact on sales. Without wanting to put words in his mouth I recall him mentioning once that they wished that they won more contracts and less awards.

In this case they seem to be congratulating themselves on being nominated. They have not won anything. To put an RNS out for not winning something is really desperate.

Talking about recycling the same old bilge. How about looking through this BB at the endless repetition of promised blockbuster RNSs (which never happen), bumper new orders (which never happen), breathalyser developments (which are deferred/never happen - anyone remember the end of year promise, that is last year), cruises (all gone rather quiet there to) - the list is endless.

Meanwhile you all spout the same nonsense, each patting yourself on the back because you think that you are so clever. All the while the SP falls and Mrs CEO share sale looks increasingly well timed (which is one of the few things that you do not seem to repeat - funny that).

Meanwhile institutions and more sophisticated investors stay away in their droves.

MWG have been getting awards from China for years but sadly rather less sales. This is not even an award only a nomination. Seems a bit desperate that this is all they have to announce. I would rather see some contracts than meaningless nominations (or awards)

Seems Mrs CEO timed her share sale rather well

NU - I think that I said that yesterday but all I got was a torrent of abuse.

People of this BB spend all day pump, pump, pumping ......and ramp, ramp, ramping......and still the SP falls - even on a bit of good news.

Investors simply do not trust GB and the boys in the trough and when you see what has happened to PIs it is not difficult to see why.

I think that I have explained it - although there are a few here who want to bury their heads

Paul – I broadly agree that the news today was welcome. Perhaps not earth shattering but even so one might reasonably expect that the SP might have ticked up but it has not.

I think that for this company to get rerated requires one or both of the following;
• Seriously good news on sales and/or orders. By extension I would include a substantial partnership with government and/or large commercial entity. The hints that GB is dropping on this is entirely counterproductive. He has shot his bolt following the farcical AGM countdown with the subsequent non-event. People will not trust him again. Equally potential PIs are bored by people on this Board constantly forecasting one or, more often, a series of blockbuster RNSs. They have been forecasting this for months and it has not happened. To keep going on like this is simply counter-productive, so please stop it.
• The other issue is trust. It does not take much googling to come across some pretty unacceptable behaviour. Frankly this continues with Mrs GB share sales, undeserved/unacceptable share awards, hinting a material news etc etc. For the avoidance of doubt none of these things are illegal but they do not pass the sniff test and will turn many people away. No doubt this accounts for the low level of quality institutional shareholders. A reputation is easily lost but hard to earn.

Finally, the level of abuse and vitriol that is thrown at individuals on this board who do not follow the orthodoxy is very concerning. The SP continues to fall yet posters seem to regard this with ever more astonishment. Perhaps a few people on this board should open their minds and appreciate why the SP continues to fall even when there is something that looks like good news. Rather than being regarded as an opportunity to buy there seem to be many who regard good news as a sales opportunity.

Previously I have been somewhat sceptical about some of the claims and comments from WaterGenius in the MWG days. However, he has been proven to be correct on many occasions with an extraordinary level of knowledge of the company. Therefore, rather than dismissing his comments out of hand, it is probably a good idea to see if there is any evidence that he is right (again).

So looking at his comments on possible issues regarding manufacturing issues with reagents/consumables

On 30.3.2020 there was an RNS that stated ‘Modern Water announces that orders for water contamination detection bacteria consumables have increased by 46% in Q1 2020 compared to Q1 2019.’ As consumables are a very significant part of MW’s sales and reagents being a consumable are generally in stock then one might reasonably expect that H1 2020 revenues would be considerably higher than H1 2019. In reality revenues FELL (fell is putting it politely – collapsed is perhaps more accurate);

H1 Revenues 2020 £733k
H1 Revenues 2019 £1,934k
(source: MWG Interim Financial Statements)

A fall in sales of this magnitude of one of their main area of sales is entirely inconsistent with a claim that orders had increased 46%. A sale only counts when it is delivered so it would seem that, although orders were increasing, the company was unable to fulfil the orders. Whilst this is certainly not definitive it does suggest that there was (and perhaps still is) an issue with producing reagents. Given WG’s history I would certainly give him the benefit of the doubt.

WaterGenius - I appreciate your insights. Although I was initially sceptical about one or two points that you made on the MWG BB you were proved to be 100% correct. As an example you pointed out the US sales team had left en masse which proved to be true. Keep up the good work!

The SP fall has nothing to do with mysterious market manipulation. While I think that the company has some good tech I am not at all convinced that it will be successfully commercialised. This is largely due to the lack of progress across much of the businesses and the duplicitous actions of the BoD which looks increasingly similar to Alltracel and the negative impact on PIs as set out in the Alltracel BB thread. Not everyone will agree with every points below but the direction of travel is clear;

• The breathalyser was hailed as the next big thing and enjoyed star billing at the AGM. Results were promised by the end of 2020 but there has been nothing from a technical or commercial perspective, no updates on regulatory approval or any signs of manufacturing. To develop and retail this is well beyond the scope of a company as small as DVRG and requires government and/or big partner support. There has been nothing.
• The UK has been highly supportive of novel ways to address the virus (see vaccine) including cash support, and it undermines DVRG credibility that it is not looked for this instead focussing on international markets.
• Waste water testing for Covid using MWG installed capacity looked like an easy win. We were promised updates a few weeks after the July 2020 announcement. We have had little.
• Lots of heavy hints that we would be selling to cruise industry. But nothing has emerged.
• Infantile attempts to ramp (who can forget the twitter countdown to AGM presentation).
• Excessive/unwarranted hyperbole.
• Mrs CEO selling DVRG shares
• GB spending time on MSYS, his next plaything, with a lack of focus on DVRG.
• Potential acquisition of overpriced MSYS resulting in further dilution of DVRG shareholders and triggering next fat payment to GB and cronies and clear conflict of interest. Refusal by GB to waive any profits from MSYS as a result of DVRG takeover.
• Clear conflict of interest with MSYS including GB’s next fat pay day for him and his cronies.
• Unacceptable award of DVRG options to NXD shares with a risible effort by GB to say that these are normal when they are clearly against all LSE standards.
• Failure to turn MWG round (sales continued to fall under GB).
• Constant mindless twittering culminating in the tasteless tweet the previous weekend.
• Spending seems to continue upwards with risk that there will be a DVRG cash call. As GB typically does hugely discounted share issues which PIs do not get access to (see MWG and MSYS) PIs get horribly diluted.
• Inability to attract high quality institutional investors.
• Careless and amateur presentations.
• Lack of independent research.

So not particularly surprising that the SP has been under pressure for some time. At lot has been promised but there needs to be more delivery.

We were initially told that we would get breathalyser results by the end of the year (that is 2020 not 2021) and that was moved to end of Q1. It is therefore reasonable to assume that things are not going well. You do not normally delay if things are going swimmingly.

A product like this is pretty much useless unless you get government behind it or, at the very least, a large corporate, as a product needs access to the market and government support. It also needs to be licensed. We have seen no evidence for anything of this sort and therefore I have pretty much assumed that this will be a damp squib, even if they get it working and licensed. Finally to focus on international markets when the UK governments has been throwing money at projects would seem to be flawed.

Gpt – like you I am getting a bit bored with the relentless ramping when there is ample evidence that things are not going to plan here. It is a bit sad when Pilgrim and his ilk become increasingly desperate to shout down others who do not share his orthodoxy.

Chesh.....you got me. Tragic!!