Member Info for mugginsthedog

Pikee – you demonstrate an extraordinary lack of understanding of even the most basic concepts of finance and little more about DV.

DV formally merged at the end of last year with Modern Water. As it was at the end of the year very little MW revenues were included in the consolidated accounts, in accordance with accepted accounting rules. However, for 2021 ALL of MW’s revenues will be consolidated. Therefore to understand the real revenue growth for 2021 vs 2020 it is necessary to compare the total T/O of DV and MW in 2020.

In 2020 DV had T/O excluding MW of £4.4m (see DV announcement 11.1.2021). It is less easy to get MW figures but in previous years T/O was in the region of £4m. Therefore the combined T/O for 2020 is reasonably expected to be c.£8.4m. Growth from £8.4m to £10m is nowhere near exponential which many posters were expecting and is disappointing.

All too often acquisition accounting is used to cover underlying poor performance.

I suggest that rather than risking your or anyone else’s money investing that you focus on something that you might be good at – like stacking shelves.

Having just got back from Christmas break I thought that I should check out progress with DV, fully expecting lots of positive developments. Let’s look at some of the expected highlights.

The last investor presentation (p 26) said that all the breathalyser issues were, and I quote ‘solved’. Given that the company focussed on this area exclusively at the AGM one might reasonably expect that there would be news about partnerships, development plans and perhaps even sales. There appears to be virtually no news and this seems to have gone disturbingly quiet. Even if there are trials ongoing we should be getting news about partnerships etc as DV does not have the resources to develop this on its own.

Covid water testing was also supposed to be almost ready to go and was in final testing but there has been virtually nothing on this either. This seemed a real opportunity (much more than the breathalyser which always seemed a pipe dream) and it is disappointing that this seems to have ground to a halt also.

Not much mention of cruise lines either – certainly no sales.

The impression that one gets looking at the presentations and pronouncements is a company with little or no focus, constant flip-flopping, a CEO who is gadding around and not actually finishing anything and a strategy that is opaque.

Many on this board were expecting ‘exponential’ growth for the 2021 revenue forecast. Given that 2020 T/O was £4.4m (exc MW) and MW typically had a T/O of £4m (eg 2018 £4.2m) then it was difficult to disagree with posters who were suggesting at least £20m+ T/O for 2021. What we got was a rather disappointing £10m forecast – hardly exponential. This is a company that looks like it is not really going anywhere and it is not difficult to understand the lack of enthusiasm which is reflected in the SP.

I am getting increasingly bored with posters that have been forecasting a blockbuster RNS for months. In the absence of news of sales or, in the case of the breathalyser a significant partner, there is more downside than upside here.

GB is beginning to embarrass himself and the company on Twitter. When are the BoD going to step in and stop this?

Seems I missed the Unilever RNS? If there was an agreement of substance they are required to announce via RNS. Looking through the RNSs there is nothing from Unilever so I think we can assume that there is nothing of substance.

Realistically the breathalyser will only generate significant revenues when it has been accepted by government, end users, restaurants/stadiums/shops etc etc. As far as one can judge this is a long way off - if it is ever achieved. I would have thought that this is self evident and one of the reasons why the SP tanked after the AGM presentation. It is an interesting idea but without a big partner with government support it will be an uphill struggle (at best).

Until it has been fully tested it is still under development. ATM we have no idea if it works or not, will ever work or will pass regulatory approval. The idea that the development has been completed is incorrect.

Newuncle – that is a very sensible question which requires a considered response. IMHO there are a number of reasons for the SP fall;

• The breathalyser is too little too late. To do something like this requires resources well beyond DV. This problem was magnified by the ludicrous twitter countdown and car crash presentation. The development seems to be progressing very slowly. If they do not get orders or partner with a big organisation or give a clear direction how they will get this to market with scarce resources then the breathalyser should be abandoned. The capex/development cost to bring this anywhere near the market will bankrupt us.
• There has been lots of talk about sales to cruise lines etc for months but the actual number of new sales contracts seems limited judging by the lack of RNSs. I am not sure that I understand why they have failed to sell. There is a pressing need – so is it a failure of product or management?
• A CEO who spends too much time twittering and not enough time selling.
• Share Options for NXDs is contrary to best practice. This not only dilutes the other shareholders but means that Institutional Investors will be reluctant to invest. Look at the number of institutional shareholders – there are hardly any and this is an indictment of the unacceptable behaviour of the BoD. This is further exacerbated by the unearned MW shares for 2 of the BoD. It all leaves a nasty smell without being illegal and will turn off high quality investors.
• Despite assurances on funding IMHO there will be a funding requirement in the first half of next year – certainly if they keep developing the breathalyser.

To be balanced the tech has great potential and they seem to have some hard working staff. Perhaps the SP was too high in part due to the ramping here and elsewhere. I do think that if they get some serious orders then the SP could be at a different level but there is too much uncertainty atm. Perhaps a CEO with a different skill set is required.

100% accurate unlike Simmo

Simmo – I realise that you are a bit slow and not very good at maths so let me explain to you. You said that ‘Mugg has been warning me all the way from 16p (1.6p) to where we are now (up over 60%)’

That is factually incorrect because my first post on DV was on 31 August when the SP was at 36.5p. So rather than a SP increase of 60% which you mistakenly claim, the reality is the SP was 57% higher then than it is now.

I am sure that GB looks very happy what with his unearned shares and his and the NXD BoD dodgy options

Burt - I think that you will find that most of the people on here expressing concern about the performance of the company and the BoD snouts are long term holders not day traders.

Retire - the largest market for MW was North America (see 2019 and 2018 financial statements). They sold almost exclusively there via their own sales team. You claim to know about the company with all your research but you clearly do not.

Unfortunately the entire North American sales team left (although this was material for the company there was no RNS) and this has no doubt led in part to the collapse in MW sales in the first half of the year.

Shame it is not salespeople

I am in danger of agreeing with newuncle.

It is time that GB stops effing around on twitter and lining his pockets and gets out to Japan/China/US/India/ UK Gov/Italy etc etc to bring in some sales. No good having great technology if you cannot sell it.

Paul and lunch - I do like to think that I take a reasonably balanced view. I have made clear that I thought that the presentation was better, that the sewage testing is interesting and that the technology is great. However, as most comments on this BB are overly optimistic (I am getting so bored with comments about supposed sales RNSs tomorrow and SP jumps that are entirely without foundation) it seems that there is a need for some balance.

To the best of my knowledge we are not the same person. Our styles are rather different.

Most days are down days.

The odd thing is how any poster who makes any comment which is not entirely DV supportive gets a kicking from the fanboyz. There are some serious questions about this company and the snouts in the trough attitude from management, so perhaps you might be a bit better off giving this some thought ?

Simmo - I first posted here when the SP was 38p. It has fallen substantially since. Your post is simply wrong. Pathetic

Indeed. A shame that so much of our resources have been diverted on the breathalyser. This was the beginning of the SP drop

There is no breathalyser product to sell as it has not been developed, so why do expect people to buy it? I am not sure that is being negative just stating the bleeding obvious

Unfortunately we do not have a test, only some prototypes going through testing. Apparently 'there is no rush to publish results'. No wonder we are left in the starting gate.