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Given how good the technology is looking, and the fact that the board is very much orientated towards a sale in terms of experience, the most likely explanation imo would be the receipt of some buyout offer that the board (and major investors) have one view on and Collins another.

Thanks Workbench. If you feed this paper into an AI model and ask about the implications for the Parsortix market you'll get some interesting results.....

Niger looked like a write-off sometime ago, and with it the wind farm. AK strategy of combining renewables with hydrocarbons in the Sahel clearly a failure, due to Nationalist governments and AK incompetence. The only renewable acquisition is not completed, and presumably won't be. Just leaves some Chad compensation to be collected and then Nipco can complete their acquisition of the Nigeria assets they want. The untrustworthy and incompetent AK can then retire. Only two questions matter here: what will Chad compensation be, and how much will Nipco pay to complete the acquisition? The share price discounts a very poor result, the reality should result in a good profit (3 or 4x from here?) for those prepared to ignore the illiquidity, with a one year horizon I would guess.

Pure speculation of course, but the CFO's lack of co-investment would be consistent with someone who didn't fancy early retirement, wants another job somewhere else and to be able to distance himself from the AK 'every man for himself' strategy.

Incidentally I would be surprised if all of AK's 'ownership' is his own, it's coming via vehicles that probably have outside investors.

Personally, having failed so publicly as the CEO of a listed energy company, I would be looking for an exit, back to being an anonymous stock picker with my own private fund based out of Edinburgh. Knowing that pretty much however you value it the Nigeria assets are worth around 30p/share, and that Nipco see synergies beyond that, I'd trash the stock price by playing on fears of delisting, accounting issues, failing to articulate a strategy or respond to shareholders, raiding the employee share trust, and use the weakness to build as large a position around 7p as possible alongside Nipco doing the same, via market purchases, loans settled in equity, buybacks. Once the Chad settlement is finalised (a nice cherry on top) I'd agree to a takeover by Nipco, pledging my stake at 28p and quadrupling my investment for a profit of £60 million (plus any Chad value) - not a bad golden goodbye for a failed ceo. Nipco get the assets they want for around half the pv10. And patient shareholders who buy around the current level get a great return.

I think that's the investment case right now.

Moho, correct, and unless there is something else going on, one would expect the audited accounts (either in June or after a short suspension) to be followed by company buybacks and possibly more buying by AK. That's the strongest argument against those who suspect a plan to delist. Buybacks are the easiest way for nipco and AK to increase their claim on the undervalued Accugas core asset and Chad payout. Difficult to imagine AK ever being able to raise money in the public market again for any new venture after this debacle, so he needs this to end with a big pay day.

Certainly AK and his pointless conglomerate have made no progress towards renumerating shareholders for their patience to date, but in terms of white rabbits there are two obvious ones: receivables resolution and Chad salvage. AK's justification for bringing Nipco on board at a price which heavily diluted shareholders was the promised benefits they would bring, of which we have seen nothing, and can probably be filed in the bs category. The main investment thesis at the moment is that sentiment is so depressed and AK seen as such a crook/clown that there is virtually no downside left (the company is likely to start buying back shares down here), and the rabbits are definitely not priced in. Even the appearance of the audited accounts before June end is likely to trigger a small rally.

In my opinion the hot money will be out within a week, and then we'll stabilise until rumours of another partnership surface, which will push us back over 2p. Another catalyst could be an updated note from Cavendish, tempting in some institutional toe-dipping. Collins has a good board, a good strategy, the right connections and a good product imo, not worried at all about short term fluctuations.

Some hot money exiting, that had gambled on another service agreement or similar with a major being announced alongside the results. The strategy is clear, and there will be more partnerships in the near future no doubt. Time to accumulate the disappointed gamblers shares.....they'll be back at a higher price.

Eisai is another potential:

Assay Development & Profiling: CelLBxHealth collaborates with Eisai to develop custom oncology assays—specifically focusing on targets like HER2, AR (Androgen Receptor), and DDR (DNA Damage Response).

One big story in Chicago was Daraxonrasib, for pancreatic cancer - difficult to biopsy multiple times. As this moves through phase 3 for other cancers eg lung and colorectal it should drive demand upwards for CTC monitoring generally. Increasing interest from US investors combined with the low float could give us a nice upward move.

GB, I don't see Block as being alone any more, it feels like a jv with Sanning.

ST, a tribute to your patience. With an implied put at 8p you shouldn't go far wrong. The appearance of a new presentation makes the takeover/delist scenario slightly less likely, the next catalyst will be the appearance of audited accounts before 30 June hopefully!

It's dated 4 June so I suppose will be available via Research Tree etc tomorrow. The target is based on the average discount to NAV of a peer basket.

Oak Securities. Price Target 35.7p

WM, when I checked, they don't need a full signed off audit for the High Court approval but rather a clear statement of assets and liabilities, 'witnessed' by a director, will do. That may be an AI error of course, happy to be corrected.

Hx, I think we can agree there are two potential scenarios:

1. AK still believes in his opportunistic conglomerate approach, thinks the market is massively undervaluing SAVE, and is pulling every lever to max out his position at this price.

2. Nipco are slowly taking over, AK and possibly I&S are in on it, and already know more or less what price they will sell their stakes to Nipco. The company will buy back shares to concentrate ownership more, cancelling them or shifting them to Nipco via the loan mechanism. Once they've cleaned out as many sellers as possible Nipco will tender at the 'pre-agreed' price and Nipcos swollen stake plus AK's plus I&S will take them high enough to threaten to delist and then squeeze out the remaining holders.

As far as I can see, both these scenarios function better with the listing - trying to squeeze out shareholders in a private company would be tricky - so I don't see heading deliberately into a suspension followed by forced delisting to be a likely plan.

I would imagine sellers are predominantly retail enraged by AK's raid on the EB fund, Niger probable checkmate and Chad can kicked down the road. Maybe institutions who fell for the projects that matter renewables bs, and worried by the dominance of the self-dealing AK over the board and other corporate governance red flags.

The buyers will be the company itself, to increase the ownership stake of Nipco and AK. And possibly the event arb desks of hedge funds who see 6.5p stock vs an 8p Nipco put and squeezout potential up to 20p, as well as a potential Chad cherry on top.

Zen, would agree, this is a slow motion takeover by Nipco. They would probably value the Nigeria assets at around 25p, but they are also complementary to their business and contain the skills set (as well as the fields) they need for their stated desire to move upstream. It looks as if they'll end up with them for around half of that, with a chance of something from Chad/Nigeria to further subsidise the purchase. Other projects will go nowhere, looks as if AK is sick of hanging around in s'hole countries. Good trade for Nipco. AK's position in that case is effectively underwritten by Nipco, hence his confidence to borrow. From an outside punters perspective looks like a safe double from here with very little downside risk, but upside limited to wherever the final squeeze out gets triggered.

Re the Nipco loan - it's not obvious that SAVE need this money, the apparent attractiveness of the terms are simply a disguise of a mechanism that allows Nipco to increase their stake beyond 30% in my opinion. The interesting question is why Nipco are so keen to increase their stake at 8p, given that AK's attempt to build an empire seems to be failing everywhere - Niger on the point of write off, Cameroon nothing happening, one renewable acquisition cancelled and the other comically slow, Chad arbitration further delay....together with audit problems and a total lack of interest by management in investor engagement. What do Nipco see that nobody else does?

I think Peter Collins sold his last company for about $600 million, and I'm not sure the revenue numbers at the time were so far away from what cellbxhealth could achieve in the near future. So that should give some comfort to those with a higher average!