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I wonder if the events in Venezuela will make Chad think a little more deeply about compensation for nationalisation......

Prax

Presumably the shareholders meeting on Dec 12 would have been a good forum to ask about KRT; did anyone here attend?

Seems the market has overlooked the action over the border, but it would only need a few comments from the Saxony government to get things moving when we're sitting on an NPV8 of €2.2 billion!

Your account should be suspended

I don't see that there will be a problem raising the funds for stage 1, the timeline is short, and there are no legal, regulatory etc issues so I certainly wouldn't suggest selling at 20%. Just using that as a minimum logical price to illustrate how undervalued this is right now.

As far as I can see, the minimum takeout price for a company such as this would be 20% of DFS NPV, which will increase as funding is secured and work starts. Which implies that a share price below about 40p is illogical and likely to be corrected over the short term.

TIL,

I believe there is a World Bank guarantee covering some of the Calabar debt, so perhaps you're a bit pessimistic

Crossthetea, you're forgetting the debt.

Not as pointless as your comment

Anyone have a feel for whether the new government is likely to aid or hinder the payment of vat due? They seem to have been elected on a spend, spend platform so doesn't look too hopeful.

Hxul, I'm not familiar with Bushveld, but a major difference between many junior train-wrecks and SAVE is that the CEO is a big buyer. AK either thinks there is a good chance of getting the receivables paid and some decent deals done, or he is insane.

Awax, 90,000 tonnes per year would not produce enough revenue to 'quantum shift' the share price, so I hope that's the pilot project (?). Looking at a number of existing large scale projects https://www.catf.us/resource/carbon-capture-storage-what-can-learn-from-project-track-record/

indicates a typical capacity of around 1 million tonnes per year, which would be more interesting. The investment to get to this scale would be out of reach for Block alone I assume.

All sounds good, but " Block Energy is now moving toward the pilot injection of CO₂, anticipated in mid-2025 " suggests a few months wait at least for results.

Https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/05/08/nigeria-has-more-people-without-electricity-than-any-other-country

Background article discussing opportunities and risks in Nigeria's electricity sector.

Trek, I think your fear of a placing to complete the acquisition funding is entirely logical, but I suspect that you'd see that in the price already - the moment they started sounding out some big holders. No sign of that today......and hopefully will stay that way.

Zengas, my guess is that it is connected to this:

https://thenationonlineng.net/25-companies-win-2024-oil-licensing-bid-round/

Plenty of 'companies' with the connections to win won't have the finance and operational skills to develop their asset, SAVE does.

My thanks also to scotpak for the report.

Too far for me to go for coffee, but if I had the opportunity I would be focusing on exactly the point made by Hambro below. The business looks more or less as everyone expected - receivables are an issue, as they were for Seven, but we know the answer is to talk to the Government which they will be doing. We know AK is looking for inorganic growth, but of course he won't be able to talk about it. But the 7p placing is really odd. AK knew there was stock available from TT at a distressed price, he could have let BlackSea negotiate with TT for the block, with the board/other institutions taking any surplus to remove any overhang. If it relates to a liquidity crisis in the company he should have been trying to get the highest price possible, and why would a chunk of the issue be delayed until September? And why was the chairman seemingly left out, despite buying a lot at 26p, and left making a token average down trade significantly above the rest of the board? AK was clearly nervous about the whole thing, as he referenced spending considerable time spent with their lawyers on the pricing issue, and tried to imply that he had been forced to issue at the distressed price. In my opinion it is the stink surrounding the 7p placement which is holding the stock down at present, not a stock overhang or concern about the business.

I would imagine, following nationalisation in Chad and S Sudan, there is some reluctance to pump money into Niger unless it can be funded in some non-recourse manner. I don't think the partnership with Blacksea has anything to do with the focus areas you mention, it's all about acquisitions, using Savannah's operating experience and Blacksea's desire for an offtake agreement. So I would expect some kind of deal relatively soon - could of course be Nigeria.

A bit more background:

https://www.thecable.ng/exclusive-accugas-issues-new-deadline-to-fg-after-receiving-n13-6bn-arrears/

indicates that the negotiations are primarily with the government, that Accugas has previously come close to invoking the World Bank guarantee, and the consequences for the government if it is invoked.

https://www.businessamlive.com/nigeria-risks-nationwide-blackout-as-nmdpra-halts-gas-supply-to-gencos-over-n2trn-debt/

suggests that Accugas have been given the right to cut off gas to Calabar etc if they don't pay, strengthening the negotiating position.

I would agree that the recovery from the power generators is difficult - this is largely the problem that killed Seven Energy and led to the acquisition of Accugas by Savannah

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-nigeria-seven-energy-to-rd-31-05-2017

Of course AK will have known this, hence the World Bank guarantee....although that only seems to be up to a certain level, we don't know if we're already above that.

Ultimately I suppose this has to be solved at the Ministry level, which will depend on the characters involved, to what extent Nigeria want further investment from Savannah etc

This relationship ought to be a strength of AK/Savannah- if you don't think AK can handle this well, then it's uninvestible. At least he has a strong personal financial interest. I assume the attraction of Savannah to Blacksea was partly operational experience and partly the Government relationship ( the leverage as a result of the debt runs in both directions ).