Member Info for MudPump

The current CBAM price is around €75/tonne, so you might be a little high at $60 given injection costs and the need for profit for the other party/parties involved. But no denying the economics look fantastic. Incidentally Climeworks is offering retail the chance to pay around $1000 per ton of CO2 fixed via DAC! Maybe not too many takers, but they're aiming to get DAC capture costs below $100/ton one day, and Block must have one of the quickest, cheapest sinks around. Their plant in Iceland apparently can only run at 25% capacity a lot of the time due to icing issues.....shouldn't be a problem in Georgia.

I think it's very interesting that Block's new partner is the upstream gas arm of a chemical company, not unlike Indorama. You can be sure that they will take a lot of interest in the CCS project - they talk about reducing their carbon footprint, albeit via efficient process rather than CCS to date. And presumably the Patarzeuli potentially offers a linkage - CO2 pumped in to force more gas out. Incredible that BLOE market cap is still under $20m. SM might finally be able to get out at her 15p entry price when it all comes together!

About time you answered the question: what dates are these targets from, pre-1p dilution or after?

Every share of BLOE that Sanning can accumulate (directly or via the warrants) below about 1.8p increases their percentage ownership of the field on the same initial terms as the farm-in (assuming some success and the early production spend is triggered). In addition they would gain the upside of the CCS and other projects. That's the base price below which it would be illogical for them not to accumulate shares (subject to any risk limits they may have on country/project exposure). Of course, they must rank the probability adjusted value significantly higher or they would not have farmed in, so their upper limit on a logical purchase would be significantly higher. If they are able to buy the 1p or other warrants directly from holders (with the help of Block) as well as the stock they could accumulate a position of over 10% without declaring their hand.

Logically, it would make sense for Sanning to start buying BLOE Shares if the price stays down here.

SO, if it dips to 1.3 you'll be around .4p better off. But if it goes to 10p, as it probably ought to, you'll be worse off by rather more. Good luck, but I wouldn't take that gamble....

Holding on to 49% and operatorship make this a great deal for Block, much better than the average farmout terms for a junior.

Yes, buyers loading up. And sellers selling. It's called a market. Now, have you worked out yet whether your target price has been adjusted for the dilution at 1p yet?

I believe the 4p target is based on a research report factoring in the dilution at 1p. The others probably not - have you checked the dates? Do you have links to the research?

"the same networks that once fueled Savannah’s growth"

Err, what growth?

A couple of oil investors who have links to an oil trading company once invested in Savannah.....they must be as disappointed as the rest of us!

What are the dates of your 3 research reports targeting average 30p? Are they before the major dilution in November at 1p? If so, you will need to adjust the targets down....

Scaffman,

"unless they're going to build a canal and float the graphite on barges to Mombasa"

Not to Mombassa - the long term plan will be to use the planned railway extension to get there.

But there is an interesting project, VICMED, to connect Uganda (and others) to the Mediterranean using the Nile. Currently at late feasibility stage, backed by Egyptian government and ADB. Could be a neat way of getting product to Italy or Morocco.....

Interesting time to be sitting on over 2 TCF contingent reserve of non-Gulf non-Russian gas, 15 miles from a pipeline to Europe. And the market 'prices' that at £10m, ignoring CCS et al. So much for the Efficient Market Hypothesis!

"Sounds to me like Mike is suggesting Beehive gets mined first because of higher grades……."

This occurred to me, that in fact they may need to redesign the whole operation in view of yhe results - would certainly delay things, although the ultimate value would be higher.

Plenty of pomp at Windsor, let's hope AK made it onto the guest list.....

The wind farm, which the 'government' is apparently keen on, will be part of the negotiation.

HX, agree with many of your points, however there has not really been a recent successful case of nationalisation without compensation in Africa, so I would think SAVE are in line for something. As far as I can tell, Doba production is dropping due to lack of investment, and since Chad don't have the money for that (but express the desire to raise production) they need to bring in a partner. IMO it's likely to be the Chinese (planning to invest in the local refinery) or perhaps the Abu Dhabi lot WM mentioned. And the payment to SAVE will be made from the payment Chad receive for selling a share of Doba.

Certainly nothing in the Chad or South Sudan debacles suggest any negotiation skill on the part of AK.

"My understanding was that the green stuff enables funding/investment from various international institutions for ESG reasons"

Perhaps that was the plan a few years ago, but that sort of government funding has been drying up due to Trump, and Europe's defence funding requirements. I'm not sure that there was ever going to be much benefit in bundling hc and green projects anyway, given AK is always looking to make project funding non-recourse to plc. More likely to put off the green funds, due to hc involvement in fact.

CYB, I think you're right to view SAVE as a collection of special sits, I don't see any vision or logic holding the parts together over the long term. AK has tried to opportunistically assemble the portfolio, and all the attempts to stick on an overarching strategy - 'why we do what we do', 'projects that matter', 'an AND company' - just go to illustrate that there isn't one. This thing needs breaking up to liberate the 'pointless conglomerate discount'. NIPCO/Accugas has a solid business logic, lots of opportunities (particularly in the upstream expansion given the government is now looking for technical ability rather than just insiders), but doesn't benefit from being tangled up with renewable projects all over the continent (which are better positioned inside a green fund). The Niger/Chad play - with the possibility of a second route for Niger oil and second customer for Cotco - makes sense but would be better handled by a state player such as UAE with the ability to threaten to fund rebels etc to persuade host governments to play along; AK is out of his depth here.

None of that means it isn't a good gamble at 10p...the company is arguably underwriting a put at 7p via the buyback scheme, while the potential value that could be realised with a bit of luck is closer to 50p.

Moab,

If I understand you correctly, you are saying that Parsortix is essentially pretty useless as a screening tool as if there are detectable CTC it's basically too late?