Member Info for MudPump

Che7win

The delayed accounts of 2024 and resignation of BDO were tied to the Nigerian operations. Here's an AI summary:

"According to disclosures from BDO, the breakdown in internal financial controls is heavily concentrated within Savannah's Nigerian business operations (which include its midstream asset Accugas and various oil/gas fields). The specific control failures identified include:Management Override of Controls: Upper-level management actively bypassed standard authorization and governance mechanisms.Policy Breaches: Discovered breaches of internal guidelines concerning contract management and how corporate payments were officially recorded.Supplier Onboarding Inconsistencies: Processes used to vet, approve, and onboard new operational suppliers were applied inconsistently.Foreign Exchange Transactions: Controls surrounding cross-border currency exchanges were flawed and inconsistently executed."

Even though the Chad resolution will be material I don't see why it would delay the accounts, it simply has to be noted.

The total lack of newsflow certainly isn't helping. I assume they will need to issue an operations update at the latest by 7am 1 June, before the AGM. The timing of the AGM is unusual, every previous year it has been around 30 June.

My point was that, due to the total lack of newsflow, we're back at the price that they made the previous buy-back. Assuming there is no hideous disaster they haven't bothered to tell us about, hopefully they'll take advantage of the weak price ( having partly caused it, including by failing to dispel fear of yet another suspension related to the accounts) to at least take some shares out of circulation, using the authority they were previously granted.

Noix,

Coming out of suspension at 26p, SAVE made a significant placing at 7p - the justification being that it wanted to get Nipco on board with the implication that would have business benefits ( not so far apparent). Generally speaking I suspect most holders expected the re-listing price to be higher than this. To soften the blow the company said it would also buy back shares at 7p, thereby keeping dilution at this level to a minimum. Subsequently the company cancelled that buyback. Later, the company made a smaller buyback at 6.8p.

That all suggests to me that the company would be happy to be able to buy back more shares below 7p, but would struggle to justify the issue at 7p if buying back above that level.

Given the dilution at 7p to get NIPCO on board, the buyback resolution only makes sense if there are willing sellers below that level. Congratulations to Management, who have now achieved this.

Shows all the signs of a 'strategic review' ie break up of the random conglomerate. Nipco/Accugas, with Nipco majority ownership, would emerge as a focused company with potential. The rest sold off, and AK ( who seems to have been the mug in every deal) out of active management. I can't see any other logical path, with the exception of a deal with Chad - regaining 40% of Doba might turn things around.

Good question about evolving battery chemistry....but impossible to know the answer. Silicon is replacing some graphite in the anode also...but tricky and costly engineering apparently. And maybe iron batteries are going to take a chunk of the stationery storage sector. But for the time being the big expansion of EVs seems likely to involve LFP batterys due to cost/safety/availability....which have plenty of graphite. The alternatives suggest a cap on price potential, but the current graphite price already gives an NPV which is a multiple of the current stock price. It will be important to sign some decent offtake agreements with credible counterparties.......then the chemistry risk is on them.

The NIPCO/Accugas combination makes a lot of sense, with the chance to get some new gas blocks in the current licence round, the commissioning of the AKK pipeline adding to gas demand and the fact that Nioco have customers that actually pay for the gas. Not sure what value AK personally adds to the jv going forward. His opportunistic acquisition strategy is in tatters, and the renewables an unfocused mess where SAVE never get beyond 'studies'. Maybe something can be salvaged from the Chad debacle, if not it will be time to break up the 'AND' company and send AK back to fund management.

I assume BP are interested in the pre-sal potential, mirroring Brazil - expensive wells but some produce 30,000 bopd. Above Block's league, although if there is potential I suppose the pre-sal could be farmed out independently.

Re. Chad, oil minister changed again, now Acyl (previous one went to Trade & Industry, so presumably still has influence.....attended the Paris hearings and has been working to increase foreign investment, which nationalisation hasn't helped). Perenco doesn't seem to want to get more involved following nationalisation and Sonagol apparently turned it down. A week or so ago Acyl was in Algeria, came away with some promises of downstream investment, and technical help but seems Sonatrach don't want to touch Doba. Interestingly Algerian resource nationalism was the model for Chad in Deby's eyes 20 years ago....but that calls for minimum 51% ownership, not 100% ( recently the mining law accepts national ownership as low as 20%). By taking over the Petronas share Chad fulfill that aim with 60% minimum, so perhaps the best way forward is for Savannah to get the Exxon 40% after all in return for some guaranteed investment to get production rising and maybe a revival of the solar project. Better for Chad than losing inward investment and paying compensation, while Doba production would continue to fall.

".that raise feels like its going to peg it here for reasonable length of time unfortunately"

That will depend on who has taken the placing shares. If it's Tenyson linked flippers we're stuck, if it's Edale and Maven maintaining their percentage holdings and Sanning taking the balance we ought to move up. Presumably holdings notices will not be updated until after the vote?

Should pique the interest of anyone who's been around long enough to remember Tony Buckingham....

This is something of an internal deal BTW, CEO of Pilgrim, with 75% of shares, is Simon Barry, also 'Chief of Staff' at........Block Energy. I can guess who holds the other 25%....

SAVE is theoretically the acquisition vehicle of hedge fund man AK. The total lack of newsflow must be a real embarrassment. Perhaps he still hasn't got over being stuck in Juba uselessly for months.

Dilution of current shareholders interest in the Georgia assets, yes. But whether or not that is ok in this situation depends on your view of the value of the assets acquired. To me this is very much part of the 'partnership progressing' tag to the Beijing photos, which was also mentioned in the original RNS. To have a financially strong partner who is aggressively entering the upstream business means Block can finally start to realise its potential. Note there are no warrants. Are those 'Make Block Great Again' hats?

Presumably many of these shares will have been (conditionally) placed with Sanning?

Signing ceremony wtf

This was the signing of the Amendment to the Free Trade agreement between China and Georgia - lowering barriers to Georgian honey etc - by Mariam Kvrivishvili. No nothing directly Block related. But significant that PH was there. And the more Chinese interest in Georgia the less risk of Putin invading.

I believe DFC gained right of first refusal (?), so difficult to see how BRES can move with anyone else until DFC have confirmed yes or no....and I don't expect they'd do that until Beehive results are fully in and JORC update. So IMO it looks to be a few months before funding news, explaining why a few impatient holders might be bailing.

The real bull story here is not old stuff about FDA approval, it is Peter Collins. In his last job he led Saga Diagnostics to a buyout for nearly $600 million. Saga annual revenue is difficult to know from the outside, but estimated to be below $50m, perhaps significantly so.......not so far away from where Cellbxhealth ought to be in a couple of years. He has assembled a board with much experience of selling companies. If he can pull off a similar trick to Saga (and he must think it's possible), then shareholders will be richly rewarded.

This is what Trinity Delta said in September 2025:

"following H125 results and updated guidance, we suspend our forecasts and valuation pending

review; for context, our prior valuation was £118m, or 37p per share"

To my knowledge they have not released a report since. So you are posting out of date research, unadjusted for the refinancing at 1p.