Member Info for MudPump

GB, I don't see Block as being alone any more, it feels like a jv with Sanning.

ST, a tribute to your patience. With an implied put at 8p you shouldn't go far wrong. The appearance of a new presentation makes the takeover/delist scenario slightly less likely, the next catalyst will be the appearance of audited accounts before 30 June hopefully!

It's dated 4 June so I suppose will be available via Research Tree etc tomorrow. The target is based on the average discount to NAV of a peer basket.

Oak Securities. Price Target 35.7p

WM, when I checked, they don't need a full signed off audit for the High Court approval but rather a clear statement of assets and liabilities, 'witnessed' by a director, will do. That may be an AI error of course, happy to be corrected.

Hx, I think we can agree there are two potential scenarios:

1. AK still believes in his opportunistic conglomerate approach, thinks the market is massively undervaluing SAVE, and is pulling every lever to max out his position at this price.

2. Nipco are slowly taking over, AK and possibly I&S are in on it, and already know more or less what price they will sell their stakes to Nipco. The company will buy back shares to concentrate ownership more, cancelling them or shifting them to Nipco via the loan mechanism. Once they've cleaned out as many sellers as possible Nipco will tender at the 'pre-agreed' price and Nipcos swollen stake plus AK's plus I&S will take them high enough to threaten to delist and then squeeze out the remaining holders.

As far as I can see, both these scenarios function better with the listing - trying to squeeze out shareholders in a private company would be tricky - so I don't see heading deliberately into a suspension followed by forced delisting to be a likely plan.

I would imagine sellers are predominantly retail enraged by AK's raid on the EB fund, Niger probable checkmate and Chad can kicked down the road. Maybe institutions who fell for the projects that matter renewables bs, and worried by the dominance of the self-dealing AK over the board and other corporate governance red flags.

The buyers will be the company itself, to increase the ownership stake of Nipco and AK. And possibly the event arb desks of hedge funds who see 6.5p stock vs an 8p Nipco put and squeezout potential up to 20p, as well as a potential Chad cherry on top.

Zen, would agree, this is a slow motion takeover by Nipco. They would probably value the Nigeria assets at around 25p, but they are also complementary to their business and contain the skills set (as well as the fields) they need for their stated desire to move upstream. It looks as if they'll end up with them for around half of that, with a chance of something from Chad/Nigeria to further subsidise the purchase. Other projects will go nowhere, looks as if AK is sick of hanging around in s'hole countries. Good trade for Nipco. AK's position in that case is effectively underwritten by Nipco, hence his confidence to borrow. From an outside punters perspective looks like a safe double from here with very little downside risk, but upside limited to wherever the final squeeze out gets triggered.

Re the Nipco loan - it's not obvious that SAVE need this money, the apparent attractiveness of the terms are simply a disguise of a mechanism that allows Nipco to increase their stake beyond 30% in my opinion. The interesting question is why Nipco are so keen to increase their stake at 8p, given that AK's attempt to build an empire seems to be failing everywhere - Niger on the point of write off, Cameroon nothing happening, one renewable acquisition cancelled and the other comically slow, Chad arbitration further delay....together with audit problems and a total lack of interest by management in investor engagement. What do Nipco see that nobody else does?

I think Peter Collins sold his last company for about $600 million, and I'm not sure the revenue numbers at the time were so far away from what cellbxhealth could achieve in the near future. So that should give some comfort to those with a higher average!

A takeover bid, if one appears, won't be very 'hostile' because the background of the new board is virtually advertising that they will look for a sale at the right price, and you could seal the deal with 3 phone calls - the float outside the top 3 holders and management is very small.

I think we will see at least one more service agreement first - top candidates would be Eisei and Roche (they already have relationships).

Scotpak, are you planning to attend the agm? I assume it's not too far from you. I remember you posting a very detailed and helpful account of the last 'coffee morning'.

Looks to me as if the plan is to use the cancellation of share premium to absorb the write down of the Niger assets. Then, once the takeover panel approves settlement of the nipco loan in shares, to use the disappointment over the Niger write off and fears of a delisting to use the loan to buy up shares below 7p (AK will buy some directly), then settle the loan in shares at 8p. Nipco are thus able to increase their holding over 30%. Once Nipco and AK have maxed out their holdings I suppose they'll be an announcement that they've obtained some Nigeria licences in the current round, and cut a deal with Chad.

The sessions kick off in a couple of hours time, and over the weekend. All the big pharmas are there. I don't think Peter Collins is there for the views and buffet.

D-Geeman, news released today because of the oncology conference starting today, so that it can be discussed freely there. Other big pharmas will want to talk to Cellbxhealth I suspect.

WM, but his transaction, in practical terms, does imply a lack of confidence on his part that the stockprice will be significantly above 19.2p by 2029. He could get pretty much any theoretical value he wanted for the warrant exchange calculation by changing the implied vol input....if he used something incorporating the drop from 26p to 7p he'd be overvaluing them, but since the stock was suspended for a long period the vol for over that time would be zero! Since he's presumably not hedging the options with short stock and constantly trading around the long gamma position he has no way to extract that theoretical value in any case. So the value in his situation is related to the probability he sees in the stock exceeding 19.2p for long enough for him to exercise and sell...therefore his choice is not particularly bullish.

Hxu, thanks for drawing attention to this, I hadn't seen it. There was something fishy about the placing at 7p, when it wasn't obvious that the company needed the money - proved by the fact that they announced a buy back at the same price....which was then cancelled via AK and Nipco taking them instead at 8p. A token buyback at 6.8p seemed intended to excuse that trade. The placing justification at the time was the value Nipco would bring....which we have seen nothing of so far, either in newsflow or in the stock price. In fact the lack of newsflow, continual checkmates and fear of another accounting scandal or suspension have driven the price to the point where another buy back at 6.8p would be plausible....perhaps benefitting AK but certainly not the seller, a stock holder who presumably once believed in the "AND" conglomerate. One can only hope that the elusive nipco value-added will be revealed at the AGM.

WM, thanks for posting this detail. Like you, I tend to think SAVE have a strong case at the ICC, and I see multiple ways an award can be structured. This is not priced in at 7p so we should see an upward move. But I think that will still leave a problem at the company, namely AK. He appears to have come off the o&G desk at Merrill, where I don't doubt he was a good stock picker, thinking he would clean up at the sharp end of the business. It appears to me his relationships were with the majors who wanted to shed holdings, and has no insight or contacts in the host governments. Time and again he seems to have been ill-informed and then wrong-footed. I assume he didn't expect the Chad nationalisation, seemed to waste a long time and a lot of money finding out S Sudan were not serious about a deal, is taking a long time to sort out the Nigeria issues ( not to mention the accounting issues ), and is now floundering in Niger. Some checkmates you might put down to bad luck. But when you're a consistent loser, you have to ask yourself if you're in the right game. The shareprice tells you what the market thinks.

If you are looking for a stock that could run a lot further than expected, CLBX ticks boxes: first-in-class technology, large TAM, multi-billion partners lining up, very small float (under 30%, possibly 20% depending on definition). We're just missing listed options and a link to SpaceX.

Hxu, you're assuming that Chad want to keep 100% of Doba. That isn't a requirement of the 'Algerian Resource Nationalism' model that Chad have been inspired by, it requires they invest money they don't have, and we know that they approached Sonagol, and possibly Sonatrach, to offer some sort of participation. Other players don't want to get involved with arbitration ruling hanging over the asset, but some percentage of Doba could satisfy any ruling payout demand, either with Savannah getting the Doba share, or receiving payment from a third party for the share. No need for that arrangement to take long following the ruling.

AI, used Carrot-style, will happily insert Parsortix into the sort of AI driven cancer pipeline being pursued by Isomorphic Labs and its various partnerships with top ten pharmas. It seems that Cellbxhealth have found a 'picks and shovels' niche in a major focus area for future research. A buyout for a few hundred million, chump change for the top ten pharmas, brings the technology in-house, and wrong-foots the competition. Peter Collins and his board have a lot to work with here, and importantly, they've all done this before. 10p is just the start, IMO.

For reference:

The pipeline transitions from computer code to living biology utilizing the Parsortix system.Epitope-Independent Harvesting: The Parsortix microfluidic device captures Circulating Tumor Cells (CTCs) and highly dangerous CTC clusters from blood samples based strictly on size and deformability, bypassing the limitations of antibody-based traps.Ex Vivo Screening: Intact, living cancer cells harvested by Parsortix are cultured into patient-derived organoids or tested directly in "preclinical trials in a dish".Efficacy Benchmarking: The AI-designed drug candidates are applied to these patient-derived cells to confirm that the predicted biological blockades translate to real-world tumor cell destruction.