Member Info for Muck165

AFR article - https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/why-oil-and-gas-stocks-are-a-bargain-20210913-p58r59

“Investors turning their backs on oil and gas stocks risk missing out on an eventual recovery in the sector once the market wakes up to the huge gap that has built between soaring commodity prices, that will boost company profits, and depressed share prices.

Market sources point to a disconnect between share prices and oil and gas commodity prices that has been evident for months but is now becoming “ridiculous” given the buoyant LNG market and continuing robust crude oil prices, which are swelling cash flows for producers.

The heightened wariness of investors to environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns in relation to natural gas is thought to be a big part of the problem.

But some are anticipating an inevitable catch-up that could see share prices surge 30 per cent or more in a short time as the market recognises the impact of higher prices on cash flows and earnings.

“You’ve got big uplifts coming through and where in this market can you find genuine earnings growth?” said Romana Sala Tenna at Katana Asset Management.

“Genuine earnings growth is a rarity – that’s why people are paying so much for technology stocks – so I think when we start to connect the dots and see the earnings growth coming through, it’s going to be too compelling for some investors.”

The Australian energy sector is “primed for a re-rating” despite the ESG headwinds, says JPMorgan energy analyst Mark Busuttil, who estimates that the sector is trading 50 per cent below the valuation implied by Brent oil prices.”

I’ve been reading a bit about GE and the proposed IPO - am I right in thinking the IPO is expected any time nowish? Thanks

2 sides to this…

Positive - SGS, a charity that’s needs money to fund other projects, are out selling all 1.1b shares at 0.08, or so it seems. The stock has been bought presumably by people who know what they’re doing. It doesn’t look like they’re using the money to fund phase 3, which perhaps hints at commercialisation. Some might say we’re a coiled spring now.

The negative - if commercialisation is well progressed and expected to multiply the SP quickly, why did SGS sell everything at a 20% discount to the issue price? They could have just sold some for immediate outlay needs and kept the rest for profit. Maybe they’re not quite as confident as we hope.

56.3 trade just printed on L2 - 0.0828 at 10.31. Reporting as a sell, which I assume it was.

Great - thanks BD

I think you’re likely to be right HH.

BD, I’m also hoping you’re right re “no reason consent should be withheld”, but there is a nuance in that the SGS lock in ended on completion of P2 if “minimum thresholds” were achieved. I don’t know exactly what those were, but achieving minimums doesn’t sound quite the same as deeming the trial a success to me.

I’d be much happier just to see Igraine agree to the conversion, which of course they still have plenty of time to do.

Thanks BTW for the Sprintex find - v interesting!

I think I am right in saying that Igraine granted Excalibur deferred shares as part of the consideration for co-investment rights, and that those shares only convert to ordinary shares if within 30 calendar days following publication of the P2 results, the Igraine Board unanimously agreed the trial had been a success. If they don't convert then I think they will get cancelled.

Naturally I have therefore been looking out for news as to whether the deferred shares have been converted, but I am conscious that Igraine stock is currently suspended pending proper filing of accounts and wonder if in such circumstances Igraine are even allowed to let the market know.

Does anyone else know??

Thanks in advance.

Will SGS be selling…?

That tick up late yesterday was caused by a MM increasing their bid quote, but unusually that change didn’t seem to be driven by any particular trading action at the time. So perhaps the MM was fishing for stock? Add in the comment by another poster that their platform suspended trading at 16.28 and, well, it becomes more unusual.

SGS paused all other trials to concentrate on Arcadia, and through EML attracted major academic collaboration and financial investment, as well as rapid approval to conduct trials in overseas jurisdictions.

SGS have an awful lot riding on this.

A BMJ paper accepted last month -

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/11/7/e051237.full.pdf

Reconfirms the significantly higher ICU requirements and morbidity rates for diabetics with Covid.

http://chlodwigenterprises.com/about/

Just an observation, but I see that “Jimmy Carr” is one of just three shareholders in EML - see the latest confirmation statement filing at https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12556483/filing-history

Is it fair to think that will be the comedian? He did after all have a tax win at the end of 2019..

Anyone know who is behind Chlodwig Enterprises Limited, one of the other shareholders named in the statement? Can’t find them on companies house…

Probably all irrelevant, although I think it’s useful to know who else has skin in the game!

Agreed - and the calibe of the appointment might well be a good indicator of Vela prospects I think. Certainly I would have expected Arcadia to have featured prominently in negotiations.

Anyone’s guess I think.

Do you think we will get an ED announcement this week?

From 12 April RNS

“At this time, it is estimated that initial results will be available by the end of June 2021…. Subject to successful indications in June 2021 about the outcome of the study, conversations about commercialisation and potential license deals with third parties will commence at that time.”

From 9 July RNS

“At this time, SGS and Excalibur Medicines Ltd ("EML") have begun the process of progressing commercialisation plans, subject to the trial data being successful.”

No doubt this has already been noted on here, but as a newbie to the stock I find it hugely encouraging that commercial discussions commenced after the initial results became known, indicating that those initial results were positive.

Admission expected 3/9

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/VELA/exercise-of-warrants-and-issue-of-equity/15115271

The Board of Vela (AIM: VELA) announces that it will shortly make an application to the London Stock Exchange for the admission to trading on AIM ("Admission") of 1,391,421,209 new ordinary shares of 0.01p in the Company ("New Ordinary Shares").

The New Ordinary Shares are being issued pursuant to the exercise of warrants to subscribe for new Ordinary Shares at a price of 0.06p per Ordinary Share, generating proceeds of £834,852.74 for the Company. The warrants were issued as part of the placing of new ordinary shares completed in conjunction with, inter alia, the disposal of certain of Vela's assets and share capital reorganisations in August 2020.

Thanks BD - appreciated

No worries twisty