Member Info for mrtibbles

This report is prepared solely for the use of Broking Ideas of Liberum
Q2’21 production was 100koz at cash costs of US$883/oz and All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of US$1,290/oz (Q1’21: 104koz @ US$733/oz cash cost, US$1,091/oz AISC).
Centamin is therefore on-track to meet its full-year 2021 target of 400-430koz @ US$800-900/oz cash cost and US$1,150-1,250/oz AISC. We see this as an important.‘result’ in that Centamin has been investing heavily for operational reliability in order to restore market confidence
in the company’s ability to meet guidance.
Egyptian Bid Round exploration licence terms agreed
Earlier this month, terms were agreed over three gold exploration blocks
(incorporating 19 licences) covering 3,164km2) in Egypt’s Arabian Nubian
Shield (subject to final legal formalities, which Centamin expects to complete
in Q3 2021). Terms were agreed under the new Egyptian mining code,
following a tax, rent & royalty framework (28% tax, 5% royalty and 15% freecarried interest for the government), with the new licences independent from the Concession Agreement (CA) for Sukari. We understand that one of the blocks is around Sukari, suggesting potential to discovering satellite orebodies within trucking distance of the plant. How this would work in terms of the interaction of the CA and the new framework remains to be worked out.
More ‘waste’ proves ore; waste stripping well ahead
Open pit mining continued to focus on the low-to-medium grade Stage 5 North area. As we expected, more low-grade ore tonnes continued to be mined than scheduled in Q2 2021, due to the conversion of ‘waste’ to ore during pre-production drilling. However, the strip ratio in H1 2021 of 6.1:1 (Q2
2021: 7.4:1) was higher than the 5.2:1 we had modelled. This was due to the open pit waste-stripping programme (important for future operational flexibility) ramping up ahead of schedule, exceeding Centamin’s budget for total material mined by 7Mt (of which Centamin’s own fleet accounted for 5Mt while the contractor was 2Mt ahead of plan, we understand).
CONT-

Hi Red,
Considering your car knowledge you may well know all of this , but in any case it may help if you aren't sure how important the warning light is
https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/know-how/volkswagen-dashboard-warning-lights-what-they-mean/
It's not uncommon for engine management lights to come on after cars have been into some garages who plug in a fault code reader to get the initial fault code do the job , but either because their reader is'nt capable (not all garages want to pay as subscription to the service diagnostics weekly software updates) or because they forget fail to clear down the ECU fault code memory.
Basic fault code readers can be bought for around £15-£30 which are what they are ,OK to give an idea of basic easy to find faults ,but no use at all for much else, especially on newer cars with built in obsolescence as far ECU electronics go!
Bosch diagnostic kit is up there with the very best, if not some of the best, it copes with just about every car on the road, the technicians are required to attend specialised training g courses several times year and the update programme alone, the worship main diagnostics modules cost £4000- £10,000 each and all sorts of smaller units for battery, brake testing etc £60 -£150 each, then the software update subscription of around £4000- £5000 per year,plus technicians training and updating courses usually start at £250 a day plus accommodation if needed.
i have another friend who runs a Mercedes dealership and his manufacturer approved dedicated diagnostics set up started at £25,000, plus all the ongoing updates, however this is not any use at all on other car brands, although he has access to all new car software on the models release, Bosch have to wait 2-3 years to get some dealer only updates on latest models because of cars warranties.
So this puts in perspective the type of OBD readers that some car owners,mobile mechanics and even garages are using and may well be probably is why some car owners warning lights keep coming on.

Boris was good at getting in the press/media as London Mayor, as to doing the job from what people i know who still work in the council have told me, as London Mayor Boris never ever bothered discussing things properly with anyone, or bothering with the detail on anything, he never read emails or memos properly, spent money without considering if there was a budget and lied or bluffed his way out of trouble and if that failed then blamed others.
Problem is he thought he could do the same with the EU and Ireland, Boris has made an awful mess of Brexit and is fortunate that he has the pandemic to divert peoples attention,
The UK is down the lavatory pan, the EU may have problems but they are in a better place than we,Boris has made the the pound and the UK both a joke, just like flying union jacks all over the place when Scotland wants independence,the Welsh,well those stupid buggers are now crying because they voted Brexit, and Ireland, what a

Hi Cowichan, nails on the head!
You may recall this has always been part of martin Horgan's proffered options, if the terms are right is the key though!

Wall Street Breakfast: Brexit Tensions Resurface
23 July 2021

The Brexit drama is far from over, with the U.K. and EU on a collision course over the rules for Northern Ireland. It was only seven months ago that the two sides came to an agreement on a Brexit deal, but Britain now wants to overhaul the trading system for the territory. The special arrangement was previously inked to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland and prevent a backdoor for smuggling into the bloc, but the protocol has subsequently resulted in a fractious relationship.

Why is it still an issue? Northern Ireland's status is somewhat of a hybrid as it is still part of the United Kingdom, as well as the European Single Market. That means checks need to be done on goods that are traveling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland to block items from leaking into the EU. Most of the checks are carried out on the Irish sea border, which has caused tensions among the pro-U.K. unionist community in Northern Ireland, which doesn't like the idea of a barrier with the mainland.

U.K. Brexit Minister David Frost now sees the situation as untenable and has proposed a plan to substantially rewrite the Northern Ireland protocol. The deal would largely be based on a light-touch regime and the honesty of traders, whereby businesses would register their transactions and agree to inspections of their supply chains. Meanwhile, a deadline is looming at the end of September, when a series of so-called grace periods come to an end and the full weight of checks are supposed to be applied across Irish sea traffic.

Going further: Frost wants to extend the waiver periods indefinitely, and if the EU doesn't put the current arrangements on hold, he's holding back the option of overriding the entire treaty unilaterally. If that would happen, the EU would likely retaliate with tariffs and sanctions, while the relationship would deteriorate even further. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU will be "creative and flexible," but has ruled out renegotiation.

Hi RED,
The UK is already in on ongoing train crash caused by driver Boris and his cabinet of liars , its well under way in Ireland and the shortages on the UK supermarket shelves are more to do with shortage of stock , the mangers of our local Co-op and Lidl stores both confirmed they are receiving a third of their usual deliveries because the distribution warehouses have been told to ration stock to each store so they at least have something put-on the shelves!
My friend who owns the local Bosch car repair franchise has 3 x BMW's , 2 x Audis and 3 x VW 's 3 x Alpha's, 2 x Merc's and Range Rover parked up in the back showroom awaiting outstanding parts deliveries that DHL say are held up due to having to undergo new import procedures which will incur extra charges, incidentally none of he parts were available from main dealers either countrywide.
Two of his best fitters a German and an Italian who waked for him for over 5 years each have both gone home and he can't find suitable replacements , also two of his reception staff are self isolating although they don't know way they were pinged!

Sotolo, On the contrary it isn't unfortunate, it was essential that the management made it clear that Centamin would only make a small profit this year, it is indeed great credit to Martin Horgan for being so honest about the mess that was created by the behaviour of the previous management and the forward strategy that he was implementing to put things right on a sustainable basis for the the long term future of Sukari.
Indeed he is to be commended. as are the teams who who involved in the clear up of the upper and lower shop floor's at Sukari which through their efforts is at present ahead of schedule and should achieve better production efficiencies than originally thought at the clear up plans conception, that of course is subject to final confirmation when the clear up is nearer completion.
The very positive aspect of this clear up operation is that it is revealing some previously unrealised information about the geological state of Sukari which may well bring other benefits once more is known.
Far too many unknowns in the world to predict whats happening with the price of gold, but taking the time to have a good clear up to make Sukari easier and safer to mine puts Centamin in a better place to cope whatever fate brings.
Production might be lower, but that's only on a temporary basis, and at least we can be pretty sure its going to be considerably better and at considerably less cost in the not too distant future and possibly most importantly of all we have a CEO with integrity as well as professional; capability!

Hi Cherryburn,
I agree some of the "Spivsters" you refer to use many different handles on many different forums, some of them have popped up here from time to time, they tend to be the type that contribute very little of any substance, but plenty of chat about their past trading prowess and tell people to to stay on topic or move on, I suppose its distracting them from promoting doom and gloom when they were pushing a short on behalf of some big clients.
Some of the said "Spivsters " on T2W and ADVFN forum's although they change their handles when people start to get suspect!
As I have said before anyone can be whomever they want to be on this type of forum and even a one or two of those who seems to be the good guys are actually sowing the seeds of doubt, but they are masters of the craft and carry out their installing of doubt in share holders minds in very subtle ways that are most convincing, its still happening and will be on the increase now the results are after all in line with what Martin Horgan previously stated.
Looking back through old posts where you will find the clues that will assist you in reading between the lines of the posts of those who are certainly not really on our side or even
actually Centamin investors!

Hi Mr Bond,
You may well recall they bough an extra crusher in the past, are you taking this one into account ?

Hi Mr Bond, yes you are right of course about the American way, (screwing the UK just as they have always done at every opportunity since the first colonies when they wanted the UK to provide them military but didn't want to pay any taxes to pay for the cost, it continued on from there to the present day!)
Yes , Haliburton , up to their necks in just about anything bad that the US foreign policy and
military have been involved in!
Although to be honest BP due to cost cutting were lax in their monitoring of the contractor!

The GAO found that the offshore oil and gas industry has left behind about 18,000 miles of inactive pipeline in the Gulf since the 1960s. While federal rules require removal of decommissioned pipelines except in special cases, the GAO found that 97% of pipelines have been allowed to stay on the seafloor.
“Such a high rate of approval indicates that this is not an exception ... but rather that decommissioning-in-place has been the norm for decades,” the report said.
It’s unclear how many of these disused pipelines still contain oil or gas. The BSEE does nothing to ensure cleaning and decommissioning standards are met, and conducts no inspections once pipelines are abandoned. If pipelines are later found to pose environmental hazards, there’s no funding dedicated for removal, the GAO report said.
Environmental groups praised the report.
"The oil industry needs to clean up its messes in the Gulf of Mexico and stop making new ones," said Miyoko Saka****a, oceans program director for the Center for Biological Diversity. "This report shows how corporations profit from polluting our water and air, leaving the rest of us to pay the price."
https://www.nola.com/news/business/article_5b1a1e00-a129-11eb-8674-ef37cc4fd078.html

Hi Mr Bond, I well remember being invested in BP, utter pants of a company , very poorly managed, they too failed to managed their contractors properly and it led to the Gulf of Mexico Deep Water Horizon disaster The oil spill response plan that BP submitted for all of its offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico would be laughable if it hadn't led to an environmental and economic disaster.
The plan talks about protecting walruses, sea otters, seals, and other Arctic wildlife that don't live in the Gulf but contains no information about currents, prevailing winds, or other oceanographic or meteorological conditions.
The plan also listed a Japanese home shopping website as a primary equipment provider. Yet BP claimed its plan would enable the company to handle an oil spill of 250,000 barrels a day—far larger than the one it so clearly couldn't handle after the Deep water Horizon explosion.

https://www.liveabout.com/deepwater-horizon-facts-1203711

BP also had its pants pulled down by Putin and co , they didn't like good old Bob Dudley, well he was a Yank and an utter Toss Pot!, so BP and got kicked out of Russia!

Good to hear from you Bob&Liz,
The markets today aren't a place not or most ordinary people to invest in today, its more like a an bigger version of "BetFred", "Paddypower" or any of the other online Casino's, but with less real regulation and certainly far more manipulation from behind the one way mirror!
Lets face it it if any of the predictive methods, charts, algorithms,etc were so reliable then the market experts would have all used them and sailed off into the sunset!
It's very noticeable recently how many of the new members that popped up claiming to have gotten out with a profit and warning others of a potential share price crash seem to have gone very quiet , even gone elsewhere!
Although I don't like to admit it after the last open pit near catastrophe, the kicking of the can down the road for years on the Egyptian outstanding issues, not to mention the never ending promises of revealing the details of just how good the West African resources are, it is now apparent that Joseph, either wasn't up to the job, or was up to the job and chose to stay shtum before riding off with full saddlebags, whilst Pardey, Youssef and others continued running Sukari just like any other pyramid scheme!
At least now we see to have a CEO with some integrity, the desire and the professional ability to run Centamin and its various operations properly in a sustainable and safe manner for the future!

Interesting article halfpenny, thank you!!

I asked Kees Dekker if he had any thoughts on this, see below-

As I read it, the production downgrade is due to encountering an unexpected structure that has offset the mineralisation in a particular area. Without illustrations it is difficult to understand the exact problem. Even with the quoted offsets of 17 m and 37 m one would expect management to quickly cope with this and the mine having flexibility to draw ore from other areas while they develop to accommodate the mineralisation displacement.

The reason why I prefer analysing Canadian listed companies is the obligation for them to publish studies in support of mine plans. The insight gives you also a view what can be expected years in the future. However, when there are unexpected structures, that no longer holds!

Hi Tornado,
Yes, like many other LTH I can well understand your disappointment and frustration, these miners really need to be more conservative in their forward production estimates because clearly whatever methods they are using to assess future output is as reliable as a chocolate teapot in some instances!
From our Centamin experience it is clear that the majority of analysts have little idea of the physical state of the mines production areas, or how well they are managed, certainly no idea of the reliability or state of the plant involved.
With that in mind their reports on the future likelihood or capability of the mine to deliver are most likely based on increasingly over optimistic statements made by the management with fingers double crossed in the hope of keeping the MM excited.
However, it’s never a good idea to be overly optimistic, especially in mining where as we now realise so much can and does go wrong, and when that happens the market is unforgiving and invariably swift to take its pound of flesh in retribution!
Far better to get back to telling the truth and airing on the side of caution to demonstrate a responsible attitude and also be more inclined to under promise and then over deliver, which will reassure investors and make the market purr like the cat with all the cream!

Oh another yet another miner hits unexpected low grades,despite all the expertise these mining companies claim to have they seem more likely to deliver excuses rather than the predicted output!

(Alliance News) - Shanta Gold Ltd on Monday said it has cut 2021 production guidance for its New Luika mine in Tanzania.

Shares in Shanta Gold were down 27% at 11.75 pence each in London on Monday afternoon.

Guernsey-based Shanta Gold is an East Africa-focused gold producer, developer and explorer.

Group-wide gold reserves as at June 30 were 666,000 oz with grading 2.99 grams per tonne.

"Whilst we are looking forward to the future, we are disappointed that we will be reducing this year's production guidance to [between] 60,000 and 65,000 oz. Whilst this is partly due to a deferral of ounces to 2022 onwards, it is not the outcome we hoped for this year. Our softer production for the second quarter has also meant that our revenues have been slightly reduced for the quarter but we are pleased to confirm that we have received USD4.2 million in VAT offsets as we work with the Tanzanian government to clear the outstanding balance," said Chief Executive Eric Zurrin.
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/shanta-gold-shares-sink-following-cut-to-2021-production-guidance-ef8pzvgpf6zawal.html

It's "Freedom Day" in the U.K., which just lifted the majority of its remaining coronavirus restrictions, but investors seem to be more nervous there, as well as across the globe. The rise of the rapidly spreading Delta variant is threatening to derail many efforts towards a full economic reopening as worsening outbreaks continue to cloud the once-promising outlook. U.S. stock index futures are also joining the global selloff after the major averages posted their first negative week in four: Dow -1.1%; S&P 500 -0.8%; Nasdaq -0.4%.

Mixed feelings: "If we don't do it now we've got to ask ourselves, when will we ever do it? This is the right moment, but we've got to do it cautiously," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement. It's a continuing argument that's playing out worldwide. Some have warned that hospitalizations could rise substantially over the coming weeks, jeopardizing the progress made in containing the pandemic, while others have put more of a focus on personal responsibility, saying there were worse consequences for the economy, livelihoods and mental health.

Just weeks after they celebrated their "Freedom Days," the Netherlands and Israel reimposed COVID restrictions as Delta variant cases rose throughout the countries. Over in Australia, Sydney and Melbourne are tightening lockdowns, while more athletes are testing positive for COVID-19 upon arrival in Japan, challenging the Tokyo Olympics in a region that just declared a coronavirus state of emergency. In the U.S., more states are also reinstating restrictions that had been lifted since late April, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Michigan, New Mexico and Texas.

Go deeper: Delta isn't the only thing weighing on investors' minds. Inflation fears resurfaced on Friday after data from the University of Michigan showed that consumers believed prices would jump 4.8% over the next year, marking the steepest climb since August 2008. There's also worries about a peak in economic activity, tapering talk, the Q2 earnings season and whether the bullish sentiment in markets has reached a tipping point.

Thank you to Mr Bond!

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-17/Record-inflation-levels-are-coming-with-no-growth-the-worst-of-all-worlds-Steve-Hanke.html

News Bites
Record inflation levels are coming with no growth, 'the worst of all worlds' - Steve Hanke


David Lin Saturday July 17, 2021 21:32
Kitco News
Share this article:
Inflation in the U.S. will climb to between 6% and 9% by year-end, said Steve Hanke, professor of Applied Economics.
Speaking to David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, Hanke, who has served on Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisors, said that the rapid growth of the money supply last year has “worked like a charm” in boosting the economy and in turn, fueling growth in asset prices.
Hanke’s comments come as headline inflation in June reached 5.4% year-on-year, the highest on record since 2008.
He noted that the rise in inflation in 2021 has been caused “100%” by the growth of the money supply.
“The main thing about inflation is that it is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. This is what Milton Friedman taught us long ago and the transmission mechanism goes from growth in the money supply to growth in asset prices to growth in economic activity to ultimately to increased inflation. That’s the transmission mechanism. It always works,” he said. “Right now, the rate of growth of the money supply has been about three times higher than the rate of growth should have been if the Fed would have wanted to reach its inflation target of 2%.”
Hanke added that between 6% and 9% inflation, the economy will experience the highest growth in consumer prices since the 1970s, an era that experienced an economic phenomenon of low growth and high inflation known as stagflation.
“We’d be clawing our way back into those stagflation years in the 1970s,” Hanke said.
Although stagflation is the situation we are likely headed towards, the economy currently is not that bad yet.
“[The 1970s] was terrible,” he said. “It was the worst of all possible worlds. You have a lot of inflation and jobs are scarce. That’s not what we’re seeing now, by the way. We’re seeing inflation in a booming economy. We’re not seeing the stagflation type of thing where the real economy is weak. The real economy is very strong and booming right now as we’re coming out of lockdown and things are getting on track.”
For more information on how the consumer price index (CPI) is calculated, watch the video above. Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV (https://twitter.com/davidlin_TV).

Hi Freedom,
Because central banks are puppets and their master are their governments who use monetary policy manipulate the true effects of their political policy failures so as to stay in power and continue to do very nicely!
The pandemic has provided our present government with an unexpected opportunity to personally make huge amounts of money and also hide their lies to the ordinary people on Brexit etc.

!“The only way to do more was to delink ourselves from unbridled profiteering,” he said.
https://www.bollyinside.com/news/soros-and-gates-back-purchase-of-uk-diagnostic-technology-group
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-reimburse-companies-covid-195622308.html

Hi Mr Bond,
You reminded me of our conversations regarding the reason for Josephs share dispoasls
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-4604538/DIRECTOR-S-DEALS-Josef-El-Raghy-46-Chairman-Centamin.html

All becomes clear now , he took us for mugs!

Specially for Red and Australian friend Mr Gnome as Jacobs Ridge is in Oz!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7N1ljhWAsAU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lER8x4ZYmc

If this gives you a laugh and a giggle or brightens your day a little, please show some love by clicking the link to secure the sanctuary

http://fnd.us/11nYQc?ref=sh_238uyc