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Subsequent to that presentation SNL/MEG now incorporate their own estimates of the unreported discoveries in their analyses.
That’s plenty of reading material to start you off. I will answer your other questions & concerns once I get your feedback on the above.

Reply-
Having carefully gone through your presentations and reports. All very interesting with some great pearls of information (e.g. 2% of gold deposits contain more than half the gold ounces in resources; relationship between exploration spent and commodity prices).
I now understand from your 2011 and 2013 notes the methodology and sources of data. I will summarise this for you to determine if I did not get my wires crossed and follow this with comments and queries:

DATABASE

- exploration expenditure come from a number of agencies, but mostly from Metal Economic Group’s (“MEG”) annual survey, which started in 1992.

Comments/Queries:

1) having to rely on data from others without exactly understanding how these were compiled always carries some risk. For example, are only outlays included that have been booked as “capital expenditure” or does it also include outlays that have been expensed?
2) if this relies on response to a “survey” it carries even more risk and one should be knowledgeable how this survey is conducted, the response rate, etc. Why are the audited annual financial statements not the best source for this information?

- all expenditure was adjusted for inflation using the US CPI index.

Comments/Queries:
1) how do you treat expenditure numbers provided in currencies different from the US$?

- the deposit database has been generated by MinEx Consulting itself. The included deposit sizes go down to containing only 10,000 ozs. From the first sentence on page 123 of the 2013 report it appears that deposits above 0.1 million ounces (“Moz”) are used for the analyses. The database had in 2013 information on 4,206 such deposits with discovery dates for 3,153 deposits.

- the discovery date is defined as the date at which the deposit has been recognised as having significant value.

Comments/Queries:
1) the criterion is rather vague and ambiguous, also evident from the phrasing “usually set as the date of the first economic drill intersection", which itself is a very subjective measure depending on the prospective mining methods and process routes, which should in many cases be uncertain. And if the “usual” does not apply, what other criterion has been used? Does this refer to "the step change in known endowment”?
2) the fact that the same deposit can have several “discovery” dates points to the number of discovery numbers exceeding discovered deposits.

- Ounces discovered refer to pre-mine resources, being ounces in all resource categories + historical production.


Cont-

Cont-
Most companies have modest exploration budgets (of ~$3 to 5 m pa) the odds of a company finding a significant new gold deposit in a given year are very low/modest. In summary, to be a successful gold explorer you need to be much better than average!

Peters initial reply

Thanks for your interest in my 2021 gold presentation to PDAC.
There are a LOT of questions there to unpack! The most central one is the logic & methodology used to estimate the number of unreported discovered deposits and the amount of metal contained in them.
The driver for factoring in my estimates of the these undiscovered deposits comes from work that I had done over several years – when looking back at my old analyses I noticed that the identified reported resource (found in a given year) had grown … which led to the observation that it takes time for companies to report their discoveries. This was especially so for the Majors (a couple of which I used to work for at the time) . Furthermore, the published maiden resource often grew over time as companies did more drilling / developed a better understanding of the structural controls.
Back in 201 I did a study for a private client to quantify the typical “blue sky potential” of a recent discovery (it varies by deposit type, whether it is open pit or underground and geological complexity). Some of the key results were written up and published in a presentation I gave at the 2011 NewGenGold Conference. You can download the slides and supporting text from my website at ….
https://minexconsulting.com/recent-trends-in-gold-discovery/
The key charts to look at are slides 39 and 43. Which show how the reported ounces “grew” over time. From this I came up with an algorithm to adjust the current reported number of deposits / ounces to capture the (as yet) unreported deposits. The multiplier starts off large in the most recent years and tapers off over time ….. I have arbitrarily stopped it at 10 years.
The above analysis also takes into account changes in cut-off grade (generally brought about by changes in assumptions over the gold price) .. which can grow the overall notional size of the deposit. This can be seen in Slide 40.
This gets discussed in further detail in a follow-up presentation I gave at the 2013 NewGenGold Conference. You can download the slides and supporting text from my website at ….
https://minexconsulting.com/the-impact-of-changes-in-the-gold-price-on-exploration-activities-and-strategies/
The strategic error of leaving out the unreported discoveries (and only counting those discoveries with a published tonnes & grade resource .. which what MEG was doing at the time) is highlighted in slides 14 to 17 the following presentation I gave at PDAC in 2017
https://minexconsulting.com/recent-trends-and-outlook-for-global-exploration/

Cont-

The following presentation looks at the global trends in exploration for gold. It also introduces a number of new metrics (associated with drilling and the number of companies) for assessing exploration performance.
Key observations were:
• Exploration expenditures are extremely volatile – with boom/busts of +/-70% not uncommon.
• The overall level of exploration spend is mainly driven by changes in the gold price.
• The impact of COVID-19 on the level of exploration activity is complex and dynamic. On the negative- side, office closures and travel-restrictions and have made it difficult for geologists and drillers to work on projects in remote areas. On the positive-side, market uncertainties, coupled with low interest rates has caused the price of gold to go up (from US$1420 in 2019 to $1771/oz in 2020) – thereby encouraging to be more active in the field. The net effect was a modest increase in the World’s overall spending on gold exploration … up from $4639m in 2019 to $4830m in 2020.
• It is worth noting that the level of activity varied by Region – with expenditures in 2020 up in Canada (by 4%) and Australia (by 15%) and down in Africa (by -6%) and Latin America (by -15%).
• On average around 40-50 significant gold deposits are found in the World each year.
• Over the last decade (2010-19) Canada accounted for 12% of all gold discoveries and Australia 15% by number.
• In terms of ounces over the last decade a total of 628 Moz of gold was found in the World. Ten of these contained more than 10 Moz each. This includes three Cu-Au deposits, where gold is a by-product.
• After adjusting for by-product credits the “average cost per ounce found” rose from $15 in 1980s to $61 in the last decade (all in constant 2020 US Dollars). Part of the reason for the increase was cyclical (associated with higher labour and drilling costs – which have now come back down) and structural (namely the extra cost of exploring under deeper cover and/or in more remote locations).
• In terms of “$ spent per discovery”, unit costs unit costs have risen from $41m in the 1980s to $142m in the last decade.
• In terms of “metres drilled per discovery” the amount of drilling required rose from 336,000 metres in the 1990s to 551,000 metres in the last decade.
• In terms of the “number of holes drilled per discovery”, the amount of drilling required has stayed relatively constant at 6700-6900 holes over the study period (1990 to 2019). The challenge is that the average depth of the hole doubled from 41 metres to 82 metres over this period.
• In terms of the number of “gold discoveries made per Company per year” performance in the Western World over the last two decades has declined from 1-chance-in-25 to 1-in-29.
Most companies have modest exploration budgets (of ~$3 to 5 m pa) the odds of a company finding a significant new gold deposit in a given year are very low/modest. In summary, to be a successful gold explorer you need to be much better than a

Hi Mr Gnome, further to your posting below I forwarded the the report the global trends in exploration for gold to Kees Dekker with your suggestion which he agreed to follow up-

Richard Schodde has made his business around tracking discoveries for 40+ years. He is a keynote speaker at all of the major global exploration conferences (PDAC, New Generation Gold, Diggers and Dealers etc), consultant and govt advisor on all continents. Very well connected, very committed. I think Richard also subscribes to S and P Mining Intelligence, which we set up some decade or 2 ago.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining
Kees can contact him at the below link
https://minexconsulting.com/contact-us/
He will learn a few things without doubt

Cont

Hi Red,
It may have been that they were prone to rheumatism and arthritis, although what they went through can't have helped , what they suffered in military service may have even brought the condition on sooner in life than it would have otherwise occurred if at all.
Whatever they were certainly brave men that had no real support or counseling/de briefing as is provided today after active service in any conflict.
I also have a second cousin who was a commander in the tank regiment, he did three tours of Northern Ireland as a Saracen commander, he had a few stories to tell and the experiences he went through scarred him mentally, he suffered terrible flash backs to incidents of the past for many years afterwards, he remained deeply troubled by the way our military were ordered to behave in Northern Ireland by the political will of the time.
Those that bring about that wars and conflicts never have to endure them , possibly a discussion for a week end though?

Hi Red,
Thank you for the post, I saved the pic!
I won't go on for too long being a week day!
When I was very young I spent lots of time with my grandfather (Pap) who spoke very little about his time in WW1 to anyone other than myself as a young boy, he made me promise that I would never go to war because he said the ordinary people on both sides always lose so much!
My Pap due to being in the home guard ( supplemented his income as a "Clicker" with £6 per year)got sent out to Belgium with a "Pals unit" at the start of WW1, he lost most of his close friends in action and suffered injury several times, although he never received a medal because e he was shot by friendly (British Lewis guns) whilst he was advancing in no mans land.
Anyway after returning from behind the lines hospital his commanding officer volunteered Pap for duty as a gun loader in one of our tanks, after 3 days training his tank went into action and as soon two shots were fired from their tank the interior filled up with smoke because the tanks extractors had been put out of action by sniper fire. the steersman was forced to open his viewing slot and got blinded by shrapnel so lost control and the tank got stick in a hug shell hole.
So Pap and the rest of the crew bailed out and made a run back to their trenches, several days later the same tank crewed by ( Jerry) attacked our lines, although it got stuck in the mud and the crew bailed out and ran back to German lines, and so it went on!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESKxi4EEDUQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MCmKrf91o4

Hi Red,
Your nephew is indeed fortunate, another example of how much we have al lost in the UK due to Brexit, the Brexiteers thought they were gaining so much, the reality is quite the reverse as unfortunately due to their stupidity or ignorance!
I feel as though I have been made a prisoner and lost so much freedom, yet I am innocent of any crime!

Hi Red,
Very interesting read, thank you!
Amazing isn't it how the US can claim to be a guardian of democracy and freedom and yet it felt it did the US ban civilian ownership of gold ,
Although the US were desperate to knock the United Kingdom’s Pound Sterling off it's pediastal as the worlds reserve currency they planned to invade Canada and then take control of the UK in alliance with Germany the UK.
https://aangirfan.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-fourth-reich-bis-donald-maclaren.html
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/revealed-americas-secret-war-plan-invade-canada-15359
As it was WW2 came along and the Yanks were able to bankrupt the UK selling it seaworthy ships and overpriced military junk including "Tommy Cooker tanks which were were unfit for purpose!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_50EGgz5_Xk
https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=217773
After WW2 the US remained in occupation of the UK to form a buffer zone in order to be able to carry out war with the Eastern bloc if need , this would ensure that our people suffered retaliation before America.
All the US military personal were exempt from paying any UK taxes, even their ow n personal vehicle could be driven on UK roads without the need for insurance , road tax and MOT, of course all their petrol was bought on the airbase so that was also tax exempt!
US base personal who committed crime or broke the law off base could also claim diplomatic immunity and still do!
https://yorkshirecnd.org.uk/us-military-bases-in-the-uk/
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10075756/woman-fled-britain-diplomatic-immunity-death-wife-american-spy/
https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-uk-end-anomaly-allowing-diplomatic-immunity-american/story?id=71916844
The "Brexiteers" claim that the UK was under the influence of the EU and they were claiming back freedom , what freedom , don't they realise the UK is still occupied by more American military personnel than it was during the Norman occupation!

Sorry had to post again !
mailto:bobbym@buchanan.uk.com
mailto:chrisj@buchanan.uk.com

Hi Mr Bond,
Sorry didn't post the email addresses last time!
Bobby Morse
Chris Judd

Hi Mr Bond,
I know Alex has been on leave, not sure if she is back yet, you could try these next week, let me know if you have no joy and I will see what I can do to help.

Alexandra Barter-Carse

governance@centamin.je
investors@centamin.je
mailtoinfo@centamin.com

Att Sue Bannister
Office Manager:
Centamin plc
2 Mulcaster Street
St Helier
Jersey JE2 3NJ

Or
Bobby Morse
Chris Judd

Hi Bonker,
Some conflicting opinions it seems on NFP ?
"Gold posted mild gains [earlier this week] despite ADP payrolls beating expectations [on Wednesday], providing a good preview for Friday's numbers," says a trading note from Swiss refiners and finance group MKS Pamp.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-070220213

Possibly Marmot will posts later with his view on the NFP?

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire breaks down the gold and silver markets in the wake of the Basel III June 28th implementation date.
The precious metals expert addresses differing opinions on Basel III, explains his bullish outlook for the historic ruling and makes the case for a gold price re evaluation.
Andrew Maguire is also joined by proud Wall Street Silver member and sound money advocate, Jim Forsy the, to talk all things silver and discuss the latest initiatives of his non-profit organisation, Citizens for Sound Money (C4SM).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYUdqE0t9-c

Sorry typo title should read "Writing on the wall"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good

1. Introduction

Here is another interesting analysis by my fellow countryman Kees Dekker, and it is about Centamin Plc, the Egyptian gold producer. Notwithstanding the omnipresent jurisdiction risk (in my view Kees has been generous with a NPV discount of 5%, which is acceptable for running operations in top 20 Fraser Survey jurisdictions, however Egypt doesn't belong there, it doesn't even have a rating), Kees shows why Centamin might be facing challenges regarding grade and production (this might even be a case of ongoing grade variance when looking at mined grades vs reserve grades), and might be severely overvalued. It is quite a long read as usual, but it gives a good impression of the actions and communications of management, and of Centamin as an investment in my view.

All presented charts are provided by Kees Dekker, unless stated otherwise.

All pictures are company material, unless stated otherwise.

2. Executive Summary

This is an update of a report published on Seeking Alpha (“SA”) that went out under the title “Get Out While the Going is Good and earned the classification of Top Idea from SA. This valuation report, completed in November 2015, concluded that the best times were past for Centamin, with the company facing, among others, higher operating expenses associated with an increase in strip ratio and having to share the net free cash flow equally with its Egyptian parastatal partner.

The conclusion proved to be wrong in the short term with the share price appreciating in line with an improving gold price and the market not giving cognisance to the cash flow sharing that would start within two years.

https://criticalinvestor.eu/analysis/gold/kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis

Thank you for your explanation, the previous Centamin management regime are undeserving of your loyalty, although, having said that I understand your point about trying to keep the share holders happy with output.
I'm sure this wasn’t your intention, but this statement seems to imply that we shares holders were in some way informed of risk, or given options of condoning the sacrificing of fit for purpose, appropriate and safe mining methods at Sukuri in preference for increased output.
I was certainly unaware of Pardey and Co ever making share holder’s aware of the risks being taken on their behalf to inflate production and share price.
I feel confident that had share holders ever been informed of a choice of running the open pit in a safe manner using the appropriate mining methods, or throwing caution to the wind and "Winging it" in favour of short time gain with the inevitable risk of catastrophic events involved, then theywould have been horrified and most likely wondered just what bunch of chancer's were running Sukari, but certainly chosen for the former option of how Sukari should be operated!
There is no excuse; the previous management were guilty of putting their own self interests first by "Glossing over the facts" and completely disregarding their professional responsibilities to the company and its share holders!
One analyst who was honest enough to flag up some serious concerns and question what was taking place at Sukari was disregarded and discredited by Pardey, and bysome others who claimed he didn’t understand about mining issues!
I am also guilty, stupidly in hindsight of choosing to believe that surely Pardey knows what he is doing, as it turns out he certainly did, and Kees Dekker was proven to be right in just about every respect!
So I have to agree with the paragraphs from part of Cowichans Martin Horgan interview below.

However, the company's bumpy performance since 2018 - when it suffered three production guidance misses due to operational issues - means some are yet to be convinced!

"I just can't trust those guys - they don't do what they say they're going to do" was the verdict of one London-based analyst who wished to remain anonymous!”

As far as I am concerned during the previous managements tenure they purposely deceived share holders on so many occasions, yet after every deception became apparent Pardey pledged lessons had been learned things were going to be different, communications with share holders would be improved, it never happened and instead they yet again betrayed the share holders trust and yet again Kees Dekker’s concerns were proven right!

So as I already stated Martin Horgan and his team have a lot on their plate in Egypt, but they deserve the chance to prove themselves as really being the new order to share holders, so I wait optimistically once again!

For those who are interested see the Kees Dekker reports I have posted from 2015 & 2018

Quite so as a long term holder it certainly seems that Martin Horgan brings qualities that were were severely lacking,even devoid in the past such as integrity ,truthfulness ,professionalism, methodology and a determination to do things properly!

Hi Dasut,
I hope for good news too, especially after the past three years or so !
Yes, it seems that Kees Dekkers past concerns over some of the managements claims and their behavior of management were indeed justified.

Hi GlyBristol,
I appreciate that many hold Sammi El Raghy in high regard as a geologist, I must accept their opinion because because II am not in a position or adequately qualified to dispute the opinion, nor do I wish to!
Sammi has often quoted Sukari as a world class mine, with only the best people, however after ten years of erratic guidance performance, several avoidable production equipment disasters, the claimed unexpected grade problems that were known about three years previously and most recently the near collapse of the open pit wall due to the complete failure to clear waste and manage water drainage, Sammi's claims seem unjustifiable to say the least!
The Sukari mine in it's present state cannot be regarded a world class mine, it is a a mine that is operating in limp mode due to certain area's being full of waste restricting access which has to be cleared and although work has already commenced at present the timescale for completion and the resumption of more normal production can only be estimated at best.
Also whilst the ordinary Sukari site staff may be hard working and committed, their success is reliant upon the directions given and professional abilities of the previous senior management who have now been proven to be inept, complacent,possibly even worse!
In its present state present the Sukari mine cannot be regarded as world class and neither can the previous manegment be regarded as the best, quite the contrary on both counts in fact!
Those facts accepted, I agree that Sukari has the potential to became a world class mine, but only under the right manegment team, this achieved and on a sustainable basis then that team may well justify being regarded to as some of the best!
The future of Centamin and Sukari is now dependent on the new management walking the talk and proving themselves to the market and the share holders, no mean task, but I remain optimistic!

Thank you Cowichan, very interesting, I just can't get enthusiastic about these West African operations, certainly after Centamin's past record they would be drilling more holes and producing coloured charts for the next two decades, and you would still be waiting for your promised recourse updates!
Considering the past shambolic organisation of production in the open and the underground pits at at Sukari projects like this are most probably way beyond the capability of the Centamin, management at present, they have after all spent a decade and many millions of dollars drilling holes and making promises of guidance updates anytime soon, yet have failed to produce anything of any substance!
The new Centamin management team have yet to prove themselves by sorting the mess at Sukari, a project like this would be just another diversion and the excuse why they haven't delivered guidance in Eygpt again!
10 years and millions of dollars drilling millions of holes and yet delivering nothing of any worth as far we are aware speaks for itself, there is either nothing there or as a mining company Centamin aren't up to the job in that environment.