Member Info for mrtibbles

Key Takeaway
We hosted Centamin CEO Martin Horgan, CFO Ross Jerrard and Head of IR
Alex Barter-Carse for a group call with investors. Key topics of discussion were
importance of the divi, stability of the open pit and longer-term upside in the
underground. A replay of this call is available upon request. Reiterate Buy with 175p
PT.
Commitment to the Divi. With a 7% yield, the divi is a true differentiator (global peer
average: 2.3%) and hallmark of CEY's investment case. Despite the significant pickup in waste stripping in 2021 as part of a multi-year campaign, CEY has already
committed to a payout at least equal to last year. With capex decreasing and
production increasing from 2021 onwards, the FCF profile (JefE 8.3% 2022) is very
supportive for coverage of a robust yield. Even as Doropo advances (current capex
budget $275m, incl 15% contingency) there was a confident tone around the ability
to fund development capex and not impact the divi. A likely outcome discussed was
a project finance facility at the asset level for the majority of capex and cash injection
from funds already ring-fenced for development.
Stability in the Open Pit. With c90% of reserves and c75% of annual production from
the open pit, this remains the backbone of Sukari's production base. The current
20km infill drill program is focused on conversion of waste to ore within the current
pit design, predominantly for Stage 5 & 6 West and the Cleopatra zone.
Unlocking the Underground. Returning towards the 500koz per annum production
target will ultimately require a higher contribution from the underground. With mining
now in the relatively lower grade Ptah zone (vs Amun), returning to or potentially
exceeding the 500koz mark is expected to be dependent on moving deeper into
the higher grade Horus zone in several years. Mgmt is optimistic about additional
targets at depth, and we would expect the Phase 2 update (December) to focus on
the additional drilling and potential to bring in additional ounces into resources.
Cost Reductions. By year-end, CEY expects to have achieved c60% of its targeted
$100m per annum cost savings by YE23. Remaining savings will come from an expat
reduction program, processing plant optimisation and reduced power usage, among
other items.
Longer-term Ambitions. The Doropo project provides CEY with a feasible second
producing asset that would not just provide diversification but could lift conceptual
group production to 700koz by middle of the decade (recap note here). CEY is already
pushing ahead with a pre-feasibility study, expected to be completed by mid-2022,
and conceptual first production remains late 2024/early 2025.
Valuation. CEY trades on 0.6x P/NPV and 3.3x 2021 EV/EBITDA. Reiterate Buy with
PT of 175p and divi yield of 7% for TSR of 64%. We believe the key re-rating for CEY
is hitting operational targets following the adjustment of the mine plan and catch up
in waste stripping. Catalysts - 2Q21 productio

Hi Mr Bond,
You may be aware that the link isn't working?

Tibbs

Hi Mr Gnome,
Boris has created such an unbelievably bad mess for the UK!
US president Joe Biden urged Boris Johnson to ensure the Northern Ireland peace process is protected in his bitter row with Brussels over post-Brexit trading arrangements, the White House has disclosed.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden – who has spoken of his pride in his Irish roots – had held a “candid discussion” with the PM about the issue during the course of the G7 summit in Cornwall.
Answering questions from American reporters, Sullivan said the president had expressed his views with “deep sincerity” but declined to go into detail, suggesting Biden may have delivered his message with some feeling.
“All I’m going to say: they did discuss this issue. They had a candid discussion of it in private,” Sullivan said.
“The president naturally, and with deep sincerity, encouraged the Prime Minister to protect the Good Friday Agreement and the progress made under it.
“The specifics beyond that, I’m not going to get into.”
Sullivan would not be drawn on whether the president had linked the issue to a free trade deal with the UK and did not specify when the conversation took place.
The two leaders held a bilateral meeting on Thursday before the main summit began and afterwards Johnson played down any differences between them on the issue.
The disclosure came as the gathering ended with a furious diplomatic spat after foreign secretary Dominic Raab accused French president Emmanuel Macron and other senior EU figures of talking about Northern Ireland “as if it was some kind of different country to the UK”.
He described such attitudes as “offensive” and called on the EU to show “respect” as such comments caused deep concern within Northern Ireland.
At his closing news conference, Macron strongly denied that he had ever questioned British sovereignty but insisted the UK must honour the commitments which Johnson signed up to in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
“On this topic, everyone should return to reason, and my wish is we succeed, collectively, to put in motion what we all decided upon together several months ago,” he said.
“We should do it in all calm and with mutual respect, and I think that polemics every morning are not helpful.”
The continuing row over the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the agreement – intended to protect the peace process by ensuring there is no return to a hard border with the Republic – overshadowed much of the summit.
Johnson repeated his warning that he could unilaterally delay the latest checks on chilled meats moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland – due to come into force at the end of the month – unless there was a resolution to the dispute.
The EU has previous said that its patience is wearing “very, very thin” and had threatened to launch a trade war unless the UK abides by its treaty obligations.

Hi Red,
Thank you for the classic car links, very nice Jag, although I would sort out the drivers seat,(it lets the interior down) with some leather cleaner, food and colour polish https://www.buffaloleather.co.uk/repair-and-care-products-leather-car-seats.htm
Its amazing how many classic car dealers fall down on the finer detail, the drivers seat is a very important part of the buying experience and might be the sale clincher, even adding £1-2k to the agreed price.
I would also want to have a little tap or two with my tiny panel hammer of the that under seal on underside of the sill, under seal can be a good thing, but it can block drain hole causing rot or be used to cover issues rather than dealing with them properly.
The video made me cringe, the idiot from the auction drove much too fast when passing the parked cars and on the gravel of the car auction plot, those stones can cause chips to underside of wheel arches etc, you wouldn't get this behavior in an American auction, the Yanks do know how to prepare classic cars and present them much better than some sellers in the UK!
Nice Jensen, Italian styled body, although which engine 6.3L or &. 7.2L,You’re unlikely to find a manual – only 24 were made – but the Torqueflite automatic is superb. And parts for it are relatively cheap because of the huge numbers built!
Listen for rumbling on start-up: the Chrysler V8 can be very long-lived, but only if it’s well maintained. Many Jensens have been through long periods of neglect or occasional short journeys. The latter can wear them out in as few as 50,000 miles!
But more important than specification is condition, because the complex bodyshell can rot almost anywhere, especially in the bottom six inches of the structure.
Buyer beware, many are full of filler, often hidden behind stainless-steel sill trims, and many have been poorly repaired. So I would take my panel hammer and magnet and spend plenty of time inspecting door shut lines and looking along the sides of the car, get right underneath, too. Then check the car’s restoration history!
The SunBeam Alpine has been re trimmed inside, so its more than likely had bodywork too which is fine as long as its done properly!
Water and neglect are a sports car's greatest foes and many Alpines suffer the effects of both. Values during the 1980s were so low that owners dumped rusty cars rather than replace rotten sills, floors and chassis members. Those which survived into the 1990s frequently did so due to cheap repairs which are now due for proper and costly rectification. Jacking each side of the car and checking for changes in the door gaps is a quick way to uncover serious structural faults. If the framework seems sound, check under the carpets for dampness or evidence of rust, the sills, wheel-arch lips and rear quarters for body filler.
Alpine power plants are tough, reliable and easily maintained or rebuilt. Virtually everything is available!
So the Chopper may prove to be a wise

Sorry Don, Microsoft added an e to your name!

Hi Done,
I agree entirely with your thought's on a job for life, but that requires commitment and trust on both sides and few employers are willing or able to offer a guarantee of job security, which has benefits for both employer and employee.
Th NHS might be considered, possibly the police service are two of the few reaming employers that is able to offer any long term job guarantee, but even then the terms and conditions of your employment contract are likely to change whether you like it or not.
We can thank Thatcherism and her decimation of he unions and to some extent the privatization of most of the public sector and utilities sector.

Tormadotony,
For some reason my last post uploaded before I had checked it for typo's,so apologies for that.
You mentioned an approaching hospital stay, so I do hope that everything goes well for you.

Tibbs

Tornadotony,
Thank you for the reply, there wouldn't have been an election in 2019 were it not for Joe Swinson who had her bum in the party leaders seat she pursued the misguided notion of becoming P.M. somewhat unlikely though without proportional representation only the two main parties stand a chance of a majority to form a government.
Having said that the choice was somewhat limited in fit for purpose candidates accross all parties , although party leaders change, unfortunately what we ended up with as a government was'nt at wise choice to say the least.
I quite appreciate your point concerning differing opinions on share performance, however often less experienced traders or investors don't have your experience and may well regard a brief statement of "The chart not looking good "as confirmation of impending meltdown.
It is understandable that newer entrants to the markets may get the impression that the charts are reliable indicators, BUT in reality they are only records of what happened at a given time under certain circumstances in the past, as we know we can all be experts in hindsight, although predicting the future is quite different, especially with the present contradictions and lack of credibility in so many governments policies and statement's the world over.
If charts were such a reliable means of predicting the markets then surely it would be a simple case of buying the appropriate software, familiarising one's self with it's use and then get down to trading making handsome profits, buying and selling at just the rights times until the desired fortune is amassed and then sail off into the sunset to a sunny retirement, but how many chartists achieve that, very few!
Possibly chart's are more of an aid to those that manipulate the markets than many realise , the dance masters (MM) are aware that many traders and investors will be following the same secquebs of movements in and out of the last waltz up and down the indices so the markets makers know just where to put in all the trips to knock the particapant sout of step and falyt on their face!

Torandotony,

Yesterday you stated "Chart is not looking good for Centamin at this time." strange statement for an "optimist" and likely to cause unnecessary panic amongst some newer investors. possibly causing then to make hasty sell decisions.
Yet instead you could have calmed concerns and offered newer investors some reassurance by posting what you already know from your past experience and you posted this morning,
"Centamin and gold are doing what they have done quite frequently in the month of June. In fact if we put in a low this month the probability from fundamentals and charts is for a mid-summer rally"

The present government policy on Covid is shambolic to say the least and cannot be relied upon !
It's all very well being optimistic but there is also a strong need to face the true facts which are that the NHS is no longer providing the service it should and Covid is being used as an excuse for failed government policies.
Any essential business or public service should have spaer capacity and contingency plans to deal with the unexpected (Pandemics), accepted there may be some initial interruption in the provision of routine surgical procedure's and treatments, but 18 m0nths is unacceptable !
Its somewhat difficult to see how anyone who is now going to be waiting four years rather than two for surgery can be optimistic!

Agreed RedSparrow!
The world needs more people like Cowichan and Mr Gnome, unfortunately people of their caliber with honest values, integrity,understanding, compassion, technical and professional experience, even plain common sense rarely stand for parliment any more, and even if they did their inability or refusal to lie, deceive and thoroughly gorge themselves to bursting point from the over flowing trough of political privilege and plenty whilst the people and our world are treated with contempt and disregarded would prevent their chances of ever rising up the greasy political career pole!
Our present government of odious lying, greedy, deceitful parasitical and thoughtfully obnoxious and inept politicians are a testament to that!
There are good decent unselfish people the world over that achieve many marvelous things despite of, not because of the majority of those that are in charge!

A very special message to Boris https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ro4DrewXHE

The French have the right attitude towards politicians, although I wouldn't guillotine them, just pack them up oven ready fashion and export them off to Australia or Norway by the cheapest method, give them the choice though!

Hi RedSparrow,

However long your posts and on whatever subject they are always of interest and long may that continue,
Forget this market madness , what will be will be, enjoy the sunshine and the bird song, at least they are free from lock down, for now!

Nails on the head, Astro, was the tG7 was about more than climate change, Macron wants to give all the gold away to India and other African states, Biden is selling what gold they might have in Fort Knox to buy bonds with lots of lovely newly printed dollars which he is giving away to everyone whether they have a job or not,, Boris doesn't have that much gold (Gordon sold it)so he wants the LBMA to carry on selling the paper stuff whilst he does more trade deals with anyone on anything as long as they aren't from Europe and don't vote for lefties, the Chinese really don't care a jot coz they got 50, 000 tons of gold for all anyone knows and control bitcoin, Putin don's give a monkees cos he's got massive oil and sheds load of precious metal , oh and lots of new tanks and nuclear war heads
We wondered why the Cartel was so laid back about Basel 3, well possibly this is why, another way ways to combat China and Russia influence is to knock the bottom out the precious metals markets and it solves all l those outstanding paper positions!

There is a lot more not looking good for the UK and the world than charts predictions I'm afraid, although agreed they are all part of the package of lies and scare tactics used to cause panic and drive the herd in whichever direction those that control the market want it to go in,
Possibly a better use for the charts would be shove them up the rear hole of Broris with all the other lies that seem to be emitted from there on a regular basis and set light to them in the hope that something sensible, or even truthful might be emitted next time he opens his ugly gob or rear end!
Faint chance though this is the bloke that those that should have had more common sense elected because they believed his lying and completely stupid Brexit rhetoric.
So hear we are condemned to another month of open prison by the bloke who has just wasted many millions of £'s on hosting a G7 jolly in Cornwall (which should have been done by video link) with the aims supposedly to come up with ways to cut harmful emissions and reduce carbon footprint.
So now our idiot Boris PM proudly announces he has secured a deal with a country 10,000 miles away rather than the one we had with countries that were just across the channel 22 miles away, not only that the deal is far worse than the one our farmers already had with Europe and the tariff free meat we can now import if we choose ,is from animals that are subject to lower standard of welfare and usually given large amounts of drugs that are not used or allowed in UK livestock.
So putting things in perspective I really care not a jot whatever charts look like, or whatever the market experts predict, because we really don't matter in the eyes of hose that unfortunately some chose to elect that now control our lives and the markets, so they will always win and carry on doing just what they like !
In fact if I wake up tomorrow and the whole of the precious metals markets has imploded and Sukari disappeared under a pile of camel ****e whilst the West African asset's have been taken over by renegade Ewoks and Boris has announced a tariff free deal with Saturn, I shall just close my laptop lid, then set about mending the puncture in he rear wheel of my push bike and go for a ride.
This is all just a pile of pants, why would anybody in their right mind think that they have any influence or control over what is taking place, we don't, we are either lucky or unlucky in the markets, sometime the market makers shaft us, sometimes it's the company, other times its experts with ulterior motives, but more often or not those that dabble in the markets s get shafted one way or the other ,despite what they claim!

Bullion Vault?
Gold Price 'Already Seen 2021 High and Low' as Stocks, Inflation Forecasts Both Rise Ahead of the Fed
Tuesday, 6/15/2021 14:10
GOLD PRICES held unchanged in Asian and London trade Tuesday, contrasting with fresh all-time highs in global stock markets ahead of this week's monetary policy decision from the US Federal Reserve – now facing the highest forecast for inflation among US consumers since at least 2013.

Moving around $1865 per ounce, the Dollar gold price yesterday sank 1.7% to sudden 1-month lows as bond yields rose, before rallying but failing to regain the weekend's level.

Silver prices were more volatile today, falling back within 10 cents of yesterday's 1-week low at $27.50 per ounce.

Crude oil today rose sharply above $70 per barrel, but base metals slipped further from their recent all-time and multi-year highs, while foodstuffs corn and wheat both lost over 2.0%.

"Inflation is on the way, I'm a big proponent of the [new] supercycle," says Mick Davis, ex-CEO of former mining giant Xstrata and now raising mining finance through $300m special purpose acquisition company ESM (NYSE: ESM), speaking today at a Financial Times' commodities event.

"The mining industry cannot respond to demand from the green-energy revolution any time soon."

Gold mining output is set to rebound by 6% from 2020's Covid slump to reach a new annual record this year said Adam Webb, director of mine supply at Metals Focus separately today, launching the specialist consultancy's new Gold Focus 2021 report.

Scrap recycling will slow while jewelry fabrication will surge by more than one-third after sinking last year on retailers worldwide choosing to de-stock rather than buy new inventory amid the demand collapse, lockdowns and high bullion prices of 2020.

Overall the gold price will rise 3% on its annual average, said Metals Focus' director of gold and silver Neil Meader, taking it up to a new record high of $1820.

$1820 is this a record high all of a sudden?

Aviation
Trade truce
Transatlantic relations are getting a boost with the U.S. and EU on the cusp of a deal to resolve a 17-year dispute over aircraft subsidies. The breakthrough, set to be finalized today during President Biden's first European meeting in Brussels, would lift the threat of billions of dollars in punitive tariffs via a multiyear accord on subsidy limits. It would also remove a sizable shadow that's been hanging over the planemaking industry, as well as threats that other consumer goods could be targeted with retaliatory levies.

Backdrop: The dispute is one of the longest-running battles at the World Trade Organization. It started in 2004 when the U.S. withdrew from a 1992 aircraft subsidy pact, alleging that Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF) had managed to equal Boeing's (NYSE:BA) share of the jet market due to subsidized government loans, while the EU counter-sued over unfair R&D support and subsidized tax incentives. The case wound through the WTO over the years, but in 2019, it awarded partial victories to both planemakers. While they attempted to work things out over the coming years, billions of dollars in tariffs were progressively imposed by each side, until the two suspended the duties in March 2021, setting a four-month deadline to work out a deal.

The current standstill agreement would likely include a five-year suspension of tariffs and remove claims for compensation. The U.S. would also withdraw a demand that would see it get advanced notice of any future public loans to Airbus. Another critical detail is the benchmark to be used when determining whether the interest on a future loan is market compatible.

Competition is rising: The arrangement would arrive as President Biden pledges to reset relations with European partners, while taking a hard-line stance on China. Beijing has its own ambitions to become a global player in commercial aircraft and even plans on delivering its C919 to its first client at the end of 2021. "There's no question that the rise of China's aircraft industry is... on everybody's proverbial radar," U.S. Chamber of Commerce Senior Vice-President Marjorie Chorlins told reporters on Monday, noting the country's "heavy subsidization" of its industries and threats posed by its state-driven economic model.

Statistic: Job openings soared to a record 9.3M in April as the economy reopened, according to the latest JOLTS report, but 3.5M Americans are still on weekly jobless benefits and more than 9M remain unemployed.

Go figure... While the numbers sound somewhat contradictory due to the ways they are collected and measured, they mean the U.S. is experiencing high unemployment at the same time as a labor shortage. While there are many reasons for the hiring scarcity like shifting employment choices, Republicans have mainly pointed to programs such as enhanced unemployment benefits, while Democrats have flagged items like childcare responsibilities, lingering COVID-19 worries and the need to raise wages.

"Look, this is the biggest economic challenge of our time," U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Suzanne Clark declared. "I went to Rehoboth [Delaware] over the weekend, took my teenager to the beach. And the number of restaurants, the number of small businesses that have restricted their hours, that aren't serving lunch, or aren't open at all because of the workforce shortage is tragic."

Making moves: As a result, Clark is launching an initiative to address the worker shortage called "Operation Warp Speed for Jobs." It will advocate for "federal and state policy changes that will help train more Americans for in-demand jobs, remove barriers to work, and double the number of visas available for legal immigrants." The U.S. Chamber Foundation is also expanding its "most impactful employer-led workforce and job training programs and launching new efforts to connect employers to undiscovered talent."

Quite so Mr Bond,
The other forms tend to be *****y to the extreme!

Somnamna,
I think it was just an exchange of views on a topic that related to other issues that both held different opinions on, no offense was meant by either to the other party, that just have different views on this issue.
Cowichan deserves answers to his questions, although like Mr Bond I have great reservations about the amount of money already spent on exploration for what seems to be very little return either now or in the future.
Indeed the argument now seems in favour of concentrating on running things properly in Eygpt after recent changes to investment and development laws and offloading other resources in West Africa ideally for a reasonable price.
Martin Horgan has a bit of a task of restoring the operational capabilities of Sukari in order to become a flagship mine Sukari offering great potential, although instead it has narrowly avoided becoming unworkable, if Sukari went down then these other west African satellite reserves would be pretty meaningless as far as the share price was concerned, at present they are just money pits rather than money producers!
Sort out Sukari, that should be the priority for now, in my opinion.