Member Info for mrtibbles

Hi Siko,
Hope all is well with you!
I take it this just the official announcement for publicity purposes, final contact terms are still to be negotiated and agreed by both parties. just as Centamin are doing at present.

You can understand how "Sawface" became a billionaire, he is good at making things look far more attractive on the surface than they actually are!
No doubt some will see this as an attractive offer, however after Cowichan was good enough to post I made some inquires,
Although there is a glossy exterior the reality is It’s just an interesting development in their business strategy – inviting external investment, i..e not their money if it goes tits up!

From a well informed source --"It’s important to note that US$1.3bn of the US$1.4bn is already invested in Endeavour, Golden Star and Altus , it appears some people have read the news to mean La Mancha has US$1.4bn of capital to invest in new precious metals projects.!"

Its staggering the poverty there is in Egypt yet there is an upper class like Sawiris and other rich families that are always claiming to love Egypt yet do little e to help improve the lot of the poor whilst bleating that they themselves despite their billions are hard done by!

Quite so Mr Bond, it doesn't hurt when you are chucking share holders money down the lavatory for the directors of a company on the scale of Rio, especially when you get a bonus for not doing your job properly , an excellent bonus for doing what you should be doing anyway and an exceptional bonus if by luck things should go well!
Having said that after the mess that Pardey created at Sukari he should have got a pay cut, certainly no bonus shares and that lazy bugger Youssef should have been sent down the yellow brick road long ago!
I fail to see how former the qualifications of an Egyptian police captain are really that relevant in managing a gold mine!

It;s also more importantly "Luck!"

Sorry meant "Luck" !

Hi Cowichan,
I would rather trust my lick with a rattle snake in a lucky dip than join anything run by "Sawface!"

Tibbs

Forgine me for assunning your genda ilham , "He who dares wins!" if he buys at the right time that is, some of us believe this is such a time!
According to Warren Buffett, this is the time to be greedy when others are fearful about stock market.
As others are scared, they would sell their shares without even considering what is the right price of a stock!
https://www.growwithmoney.com/blog/be-greedy-when-others-are-fearful-why-we-should-do-so-in-stocks/

Hi Red,
What a bunch of crooks we have for a government,, they only care about themselves whilst wasting money at a truly alarming rate, the NHS & social care is starved of funding unless we pay more tax supposedly ring fenced , my rear end, why do people trust the buggers!
The Tories are just a bunch of spivsters!
A former Tory councillor was given a £120m government contract for personal protective equipment (PPE) which is now lying unused because of concerns about its quality, it has been revealed.
Steve Dechan, who owns medical device manufacturer Platform-14, had his offer to supply protective equipment from China fast-tracked through the government’s controversial “VIP” lane.

The Sunday Times newspaper reports that fewer than 1 in 400 of the face shields procured by the company on behalf of the government have been used, because the regulator does not believe they meet the right standards.

The original order for 120 million shields has delivered just 274,200 into the NHS supply chain, representing 0.23 per cent of the overall stock.

It means the shields used so far have cost the equivalent of £423 each, despite similar ones being available to buy online for less than £1.

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has to authorise all PPE that is not CE marked (an EU designation that means it complies with European standards).

But the regulator said: “None of the documentation provided to HSE indicated the product to be CE marked.”

The regulator wrote to officials in September last year saying the shields “cannot enter the NHS supply chain” and repeatedly refused to approve them.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/former-tory-councillor-got-%c2%a3120m-vip-lane-government-contract-for-face-shields-now-lying-unused/ar-AAMxuZ4?ocid=AVRES000&li=BBoPWjQ&OCID=AVRES000&pc=UE00

Report authors
Jonathan Guy
Analyst
+44 20 3753 3379
jonathan.guy@berenberg.com
Richard Hatch
Analyst
+44 20 3753 3070
richard.hatch@berenberg.com
Oliver Grew****
Analyst
+44 20 3753 3215
oliver.grew****@berenberg.com

Please its not possibly to post some of he charts that form part of this report , sorry.

Part 7
Source: Company reports, Berenberg estimates
We have updated our ESG matrix for 2020. In the environmental category the combination
of an increase in the gold price and challenges with production drove a pullback in
greenhouse gas emissions to revenue, but an increase in emissions to tonnes processed
and production. Tailings waste to production also increased due to lower grades being
processed. The 26MW solar farm and associated 7.5MW battery storage system that should
be completed in H1 2022 should have a material and positive impact on emissions moving
forward; however, only 29% of water is recycled water drawn from a sea pipeline and is not
depleting aquifers. The main areas for improvement from an environmental perspective
are the external certification of the environmental management system and a policy on the
management of environmental impacts within the supply chain.
Within the social category the company reported no strikes and fatalities and a lost time
injury frequency rate of 0.84, which is low compared to peers. Centamin scores well in this
category with the main outstanding items being setting targets on diversity and opportunity.
The governance category is more mixed with good independent and female board
representation, but with only 9% of executives being female and only 1.5% of the workforce.
Centamin links executive compensation to ESG performance and has policies on bribery
and corruption, but is not a UN global compact signatory

Part 6 Valuation metrics
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
P / adjusted EPS 22.7 11.8 7.6 8.9 14.4
P / book value 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0
FCF yield 4.3% 8.1% 2.6% 6.9% 4.4%
Dividend yield 2.7% 5.6% 5.5% 3.9% 2.6%
EV / sales 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9
EV / EBITDA 5.1 3.6 3.6 3.5 4.3
EV / EBIT 8.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 6.9
EV / FCF 9.5 5.1 13.6 6.7 8.8
EV / cap. employed 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9

Key risks to our investment thesis
? Gold: With no financial gearing (no debt), Centamin has lower-thanaverage sensitivity to the gold price. Given the strength of the
balance sheet, the Sukari mine will survive a lower price than most.
? Updated mine plan: The updated mine plan, due before the end of
2021, could materially alter our long-term assumptions for both the
open pit and underground mine.

part 5
Growth and margins
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue growth 8.1% 27.0% -6.1% 3.2% -6.8%
EBITDA growth 13.7% 49.4% -10.2% 2.9% -20.0%
EBIT growth 13.1% 87.5% -11.2% 1.3% -28.2%
EPS adj growth 14.6% 104.4% 37.5% -13.6% -38.5%
FCF growth 15.3% 102.1% -66.7% 99.1% -23.5%
EBITDA margin 44.9% 52.8% 50.5% 50.4% 43.2%
EBIT margin 25.6% 37.8% 35.8% 35.1% 27.1%
Net income margin 11.8% 18.9% 27.8% 23.3% 15.4%
FCF margin 23.9% 37.9% 13.5% 26.0% 21.4%Key ratios
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Net debt / equity -21.5% -22.6% -18.4% -18.5% -18.3%
Net debt / EBITDA -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9
Avg cost of debt - - - - -
Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Interest cover - - - - -
Payout ratio 60.6% 66.5% 48.8% 40.0% 43.2%
ROCE 12.8% 23.7% 18.9% 18.0% 12.5%
Capex / sales 14.3% 16.8% 31.1% 25.5% 24.2%
Capex / depreciation 80.7% 111.5% 210.4% 166.7% 149.5%

Part 4
Profit and loss summary
USDm 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenues 652 829 778 803 748
EBITDA 293 438 393 404 323
EBITA 177 313 278 282 202
EBIT 167 313 278 282 202
Associates contribution - - - - -
Net interest 6 2 1 1 1
Tax - - - - -
Minorities 0 0 0 0 0
Net income adj. 77 157 216 187 115
EPS reported 0.08 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.10
EPS adjusted 0.07 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.10
Year end shares 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156
Average shares 1,153 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
DPS 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.04
Cash flow summary
USDm 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Net income 173 315 280 283 204
Depreciation 116 125 115 123 121
Working capital changes -25 10 -50 5 14
Other non-cash items -15 4 2 2 2
Operating cash flow 249 453 347 413 341
Capex -93 -139 -242 -204 -181
FCFE 156 314 105 209 160
Acquisitions, disposals 7 7 0 0 0
Other investment CF -159 -313 -103 -207 -158
Dividends paid -81 -139 -70 -95 -66
Buybacks, issuance 0 -3 0 0 0
Change in net debt 4 -13 27 -19 -6
Net debt (cash negative) -278 -291 -265 -284 -290
FCF per share 0.13 0.27 0.09 0.18 0.14

Cont

Part 3
? We retain a Buy recommendation for Centamin, as we bel the recent capital markets day provided clarity about the medium- ieve that
term production profile. Centamin retains a solid balance sheet and
should produce 450k-500koz over the longer term with a
sustainable dividend of at least USD100m/year.
? Price target and rating: Our price target, based on 1.2x NAV and 6x
EBITDA is GBp138 per share (from GBp137 per share).
? Valuation methodology: We value Centamin on an equally weighted
blend of NPV (10%) and EV/EBITDA methodologies to generate our
GBp138 price target.
Bloomberg CEY LN
Current price Price target
GBp102 GBp138 Market cap (GBPm) 1,364
22/07/2021 London Close EV (GBPm) 1,019
Trading volume 7,350,000
Free float 98.0%
Non-institutional shareholders Share performance
Management: 2% High 52 weeks GBp232
Current price Price target
GBp102 GBp138 Market cap (GBPm) 1,364
22/07/2021 London Close EV (GBPm) 1,019
Trading volume 7,350,000
Free float 98.0%
Non-institutional shareholders Share performance
Management: 2% High 52 weeks GBp232
Low 52 weeks GBp102
Business description Performance relative to
Centamin is a single-asset gold producer
operating the Sukari mine in Egypt. Sukari
has been in operation since 2009 and has a
20-year mine life from today.
SXXP MSCI Metals
& Mining
1mth -1.6% -2.8%
3mth -14.2% -9.5%
12mth -67.7% -81.8%

Part 2Revenues 652 829 778 803 748
EBITDA 293 438 393 404 323
EBIT 167 313 278 282 202
Net income (adjusted) 77 157 216 187 115
EPS (reported) 0.08 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.10
EPS (adjusted) 0.07 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.10
DPS 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.04
Dividend payout ratio 61% 66% 49% 40% 43%
Dividend yield 2.7% 5.6% 5.5% 3.9% 2.6%
Capex -93 -139 -242 -204 -181
Free cash flow 156 314 105 209 160
FCF yield 4.3% 8.1% 2.6% 6.9% 4.4%
Y/E net debt (net cash) -278 -291 -265 -284 -290
Net debt / EBITDA -0.95 -0.67 -0.67 -0.70 -0.90
Gross margin 30.2% 39.9% 37.4% 36.7% 28.8%
EBITDA margin 44.9% 52.8% 50.5% 50.4% 43.2%
EBIT margin 25.6% 37.8% 35.8% 35.1% 27.1%
ROCE 12.8% 23.7% 18.9% 18.0% 12.5%
P/E 22.7 11.8 7.6 8.9 14.4
EV/EBITDA 5.1 3.6 3.6 3.5 4.3Revenues 652 829 778 803 748
EBITDA 293 438 393 404 323
EBIT 167 313 278 282 202
Net income (adjusted) 77 157 216 187 115
EPS (reported) 0.08 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.10
EPS (adjusted) 0.07 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.10
DPS 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.04
Dividend payout ratio 61% 66% 49% 40% 43%
Dividend yield 2.7% 5.6% 5.5% 3.9% 2.6%
Capex -93 -139 -242 -204 -181
Free cash flow 156 314 105 209 160
FCF yield 4.3% 8.1% 2.6% 6.9% 4.4%
Y/E net debt (net cash) -278 -291 -265 -284 -290
Net debt / EBITDA -0.95 -0.67 -0.67 -0.70 -0.90
Gross margin 30.2% 39.9% 37.4% 36.7% 28.8%
EBITDA margin 44.9% 52.8% 50.5% 50.4% 43.2%
EBIT margin 25.6% 37.8% 35.8% 35.1% 27.1%
ROCE 12.8% 23.7% 18.9% 18.0% 12.5%
P/E 22.7 11.8 7.6 8.9 14.4
EV/EBITDA 5.1 3.6 3.6 3.5 4.3
Revenues 652 829 778 803 748
EBITDA 293 438 393 404 323
EBIT 167 313 278 282 202
Net income (adjusted) 77 157 216 187 115
EPS (reported) 0.08 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.10
EPS (adjusted) 0.07 0.14 0.19 0.16 0.10
DPS 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.04
Dividend payout ratio 61% 66% 49% 40% 43%
Dividend yield 2.7% 5.6% 5.5% 3.9% 2.6%
Capex -93 -139 -242 -204 -181
Free cash flow 156 314 105 209 160
FCF yield 4.3% 8.1% 2.6% 6.9% 4.4%
Y/E net debt (net cash) -278 -291 -265 -284 -290
Net debt / EBITDA -0.95 -0.67 -0.67 -0.70 -0.90
Gross margin 30.2% 39.9% 37.4% 36.7% 28.8%
EBITDA margin 44.9% 52.8% 50.5% 50.4% 43.2%
EBIT margin 25.6% 37.8% 35.8% 35.1% 27.1%
ROCE 12.8% 23.7% 18.9% 18.0% 12.5%
P/E 22.7 11.8 7.6 8.9 14.4
EV/EBITDA 5.1 3.6 3.6 3.5 4.3

Cont

Q2 in line, guidance maintained
? Q2 production in line: Centamin has released Q2 production figures of
240kt of gold to be mined from the underground at 5.45g/t. The waste
stripping programme at the pit is progressing ahead of schedule with both
the company’s own fleet and the Capital Drilling fleet ahead of plan. The
plant processed 2.8Mt at an average grade of 1.19g/t versus our expectation
of 2.9Mt at 1.17g/t, with throughput affected by bringing forward a planned
change of the girth gear in the SAG mill. AISC for the period was
USD1,290/oz, above our expectation of USD1,234/oz. Production guidance
of 400koz-430koz/t at an AISC of USD1,150/oz-1,250/oz for the year has
been maintained; we expect production of 430koz at an AISC of
USD1,157/oz. Centamin has agreed terms for 3,164km2 of exploration
concessions across 19 licences in Egypt, with final contracts due to be
signed in Q3. We view this as a material positive as it gives the company
growth options that could leverage off Sukari, including potential satellites
for the mine.
? Balance sheet remains strong: Centamin finished the period with
USD312.1m of cash and liquid assets and with no debt. Revenues for the
period were USD177.5m (Berenberg: USD183m) with an average received
gold price of USD1,822/oz and gold sold of 97.2koz. We expect Q2 EBITDA
of USD78m and NPAT (and post-profit share) of USD28.8m. Capex for the
year has been maintained at USD225m, with 65% now guided for H2 due to
delays.
? Maintain Buy: These are an in-line set of results with guidance
maintained, which we view as a positive after the operational challenges
faced by the company. We increase our price target to GBp138 based on a
blend of 1.2x NAV and 6x EV/EBITDA. We view Centamin as a turnaround
story, with a solid balance sheet that should underpin the ongoing
payment of a dividend – with a 5.5% yield – for 2021, which is at the upper
end of the gold peer group. The main catalyst should be the publication of
the second phase of the Sukari life of mine plan expected in Q4. We have
also updated our ESG matrix for Centamin (see Figure 2).
Current price Price target
GBp102 GBp138
22/07/2021 London Close
Market cap (GBPm) 1,364
Reuters CEY.L
Bloomberg CEY LN
Changes made in this note
Rating: Buy (no change)
Price target: GBp138 (137)
Estimates changes
2021E 2022E 2023E
old ? % old ? % old ? %
Sales 785 -0.8 803 0 748 0
EBITDA 404 -2.8 404 0.0 323 0.0
EPS 0.18 0.6 0.16 0.0 0.10 -0.1
Source: Berenberg estimates
Share data
Shares outstanding (m) 1,156
Enterprise value (GBPm) 1,019
Daily trading volume 7,350,000

Final
Author Yuen Low
+44 (0)20 3100 2091
yuen.low@liberum.com

Market Making
Giles Johnston (Head of Trading)
+44 (0)20 3100 2203
giles.johnston@liberum.com
David O’Gram
+44 (0)20 3100 2201
david.ogram@liberum.com
Marc Wilkinson
+44 (0)20 3100 2206
marc.wilkinson@liberum.com

Part 4
Figure 3: Balance sheet ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 64 74 84 94
PPE 830 917 957 1,050
Trade and other LT receivables 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax asset 0 0 0 0
Investments in JVs / Associates 0 0 0 0
Retirement benefit asset 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 65 69 72 89
Fixed assets 959 1,060 1,113 1,233
Inventories 119 124 133 140
Trade and other receivables 18 19 21 22
Cash & cash equivalents 291 182 99 66
Financial assets 0 0 0 0
Other current assets 9 9 9 9
Current assets 437 333 262 237
Total Assets 1,396 1,393 1,375 1,470
Trade payables 64 73 74 76
Borrowings 0 0 0 70
Tax liabilities 0 0 0 0
Provisions 7 7 7 7
Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0
Current liabilities 72 81 81 153
Total assets less current liabilities 1,324 1,312 1,293 1,317
Net current assets 365 252 180 84
Long-term borrowings and finance leases 0 0 0 0
Retirement benefit obligations 0 0 0 0
Provisions 0 0 0 0
Other payables 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 33 33 33 33
Non-current liabilities 34 34 34 34
Net Assets 1,289 1,278 1,259 1,283
Total equity 1,289 1,278 1,259 1,283
Minority interests 17 17 17 17
Shareholders’ equity 1,307 1,295 1,276 1,300
Source: Liberum

Part 3
Figure 1: Income statement ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Total sales 829 734 732 761
Sales growth (%) 27 (11) (0) 4
Gross margin (%) 46 32 28 26
Cost of sales (449) (499) (529) (562)
Gross profit 379 235 203 199
Operating expenses (55) (36) (35) (36)
Administrative expenses 0 0 0 0
Share based payments 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBITDA 439 329 312 329
Depreciation (124) (135) (163) (184)
Amortisation (not acquired) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBIT (pre JVs) 307 194 149 144
EBIT (pre JVs) margin (%) 37 26 20 19
Revenue 0 0 0 0
PBT 0 0 0 0
Tax 0 0 0 0
JV post tax profit 0 0 0 0
JV contribution 0 0 0 0
Profit on disposal 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBIT 307 194 149 144
EBIT Margin (%) 37 26 20 19
Amortisation of acquired intangibles 0 0 0 0
Exceptional / extraordinary costs (1) 0 0 0
Reported EBIT 307 194 149 144
Non-operating exceptional costs 0 0 0 0
Interest income 2 3 1 1
Interest costs 7 0 0 0
Pension credit / (cost) 0 0 0 0
Net Interest 8 3 1 1
Underlying PBT 316 197 150 145
Reported PBT 316 197 150 145
Underlying tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0
Exceptional tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0
Reported tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0
Underlying tax (0) 0 0 0
Exceptional tax 0 0 0 0
Reported tax (0) 0 0 0
Underlying PAT 315 197 150 145
Discontinued operations (net) 0 0 0 0
Profit on disposal 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT 315 197 150 145
Share of profit attributable to minorities (159) (104) (83) (80)
Preference dividends 0 0 0 0
Minorities (159) (104) (83) (80)
Underlying net income 157 93 68 65
Reported net income 156 93 68 65
Weighted average number of shares (basic) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Number of shares at period end (basic) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Reported EPS (basic) ($) 0 0 0 0
Reported EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (basic) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (basic) growth (%) 79 (41) (27) (4)
Underlying EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (diluted) growth (%) 79 (41) (27) (4)
Pro-forma EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
DPS (Ordinary) ($) 0 0 0 0
DPS (Total) ($) 0 0 0 0
Dividend growth (%) 20 (25) (65) 17
Dividend cover (x)

part 2
Recoveries outperformance offsets plant maintenance
H1 2021 production amounted to 204koz, essentially in-line with our 206koz expectation. This was despite a 10-day shutdown of one of Sukari’s two SAG mills being brought forward to Q2 2021 (from Q3 2021). We understand this to be due to recoveries being better than expected by ourselves and company:we had modelled 88.0% for H1 2021, versus the realised recovery of 88.8%
(with Q2 at 89.3%).
H1 unit costs at lower end of full-year guidance range
Total cash costs and AISC came in at US$883/oz and US$1,186/oz in Q2 2021, for H1 averages of US$807/oz and US$1,186/oz – i.e., at the lower end of Centamin’s full-year guidance is for US$800-900/oz cash cost and
US$1,150-1,250/oz, respectively. We had modelled US$868/oz and US$1,216/oz, respectively.
Capex guidance maintained, but more H2-weighted
Capex spend in H1 2021 amounted to US$78.3m, but full-year capex guidance remains US$225m – i.e. 65% in H2 (previously 55%), due to certain payments being rescheduled to Q3 2021.
Balance sheet remains strong
As at 30 June 2021, Centamin had US$312m of cash and liquid assets (March 2021: US$331m), after the final dividend of US$34.5m and Sukari profit share distribution in H1 2021 of US$45.7m, with no debt and no hedging. Detailed
H1 2021 financials are to be released on 5 August 2021. Phase 2 of Sukari Life of Asset (LOA) review by end 2021
An updated structural model was completed for Sukari in Q2 2021, which will be integrated into the full geological model in Q3 2021. An updated resource estimate will underpin Phase 2 of the LOA review, which Centamin continues to expect to complete by the end of 2021.