Member Info for MrMath

"I wonder what the SP will be when it appears on their radar?"

An excellent point. I have considered this as well, as I too know some "money" people who were unaware of SXX.

That's a shame, but best to sort things out now, as Cranleigh has pointed out. Hope things work out for you.

"27-Jul-18 12:02:25 35.00 17,538 Buy* 36.02 (Bid) 34.30 (Ask) 6,138 UT"

The Bid on today's midday UT trade was 36.02p. Nice to see 36p mentioned instead of this talk about 35p.

"September 18 - December 18: Financial close including provision of government guarantee."

The above is from the Sirius 2018 investor presentation document. Given that we almost have the TorPs required for Stage 2 financing, does this mean that we are ahead of schedule? September is over a month away. An RNS of significance will surely be released before then. 35p is living on borrowed time.

Please keep posting jonesrichard at least until we have surpassed the £1 mark. Your efforts are very much appreciated!

"Surely more good news would be worth at least another couple of pence?"

Maybe there will be no gap between the next TorP annoucement and Stage 2 being finalised because the next Torp announcement will certainly take us over the said figure to achieve Stage 2. Two RNS's in one day?

"No rhyme or reason to SXX!"

There is very good reason for today's rise and that's the muted reaction to Friday's fantastic TorP's RNS combined with the inevitable Sirius articles over the weekend. Sometimes people just need telling.

I really should be trading this :-)

"I think that it is fair to assume that the SP will surge."

I agree. The inevitable articles are appearing.

Reiteration: "Expect a rise of at least 5% on Monday."

The traders will be out in force, so it may drop back a bit after the initial rise but we will be left with an increase that will keep us happy for a few days. We always want more :-)

"I really thought the SP would have been in excess of 50p at this stage."

Considering where we are now, the SP is indeed astonishingly low.

However, that does make it a really compelling investment at the moment. No doubt there will be a few articles this weekend for people to mull over and reboot their financial brains. Expect a rise of at least 5% on Monday.

"There are some very low expectations with the SP."

Got to agree with that. Be disappointed with anything less than 70p post stage 2 funding.

Great news! And, yes, you should have topped up!

Judging by the continued low level of the SP, people prefer to hear the good news via RNS.

Having bought a chunk at just under 34p recently, I'm up about 10% and can add another 15% on top of that for the money I've made trading this share.

Happy days you might think, but here's the kicker, I keep very precise records and know that I would have been up over 50% had I just held and not traded. And I'd have a larger holding too!

"Is it day traders taking it down and back up again?"

It's just fools and their money. The brokers must love it!

Take a close look at today's figures it's clear that very few day traders could have made a profit today.

The SP opened at 33.64 and immediately jumped to 33.92, so about 1% if you're trading for free and hit it just right.

Then the SP drops to a low of 32.82 and recovers just before close to 33.60, so that's less than 2% taking stamp duty into account. And that's if you hit it just right. We know how easy that is to do!

Some of the recovery may be due to LTHs getting tempted to top up when they see a fall. I certainly do.

But for the most part I think it's nervous trading types who really need to get themselves better informed about this project and start making money instead of losing it.

"If it shot up to 80p, I would trade a few but then so would everyone else. So it's not really going to happen."

Most LTHs would love to be at the £1 party but all must have considered what they would actually do if the SP were to shoot to (say, in under a week) 60p or even 80p. Reckon a lot would sell a big chunk of their holding on such an event before we get to £1.

However, for such a dramatic rise to occur some big news would have had to have been released (massive TorPs, stage 2 funding 100% secure etc) and this would likely draw in the institutional investors, thus changing fundamentally the SP's behaviour.

LTHs of SXX have become very used to the fact that the SP has had difficulty maintaining its gains. But selling in the above scenario could turn out to be a mistake. It's very possible that the SP could continue to rise steadily even after a major jump leaving the current LTHs with less return than they had anticipated.

"Stamp duty is pretty much insignificant if you hold."

Yep, but it's a killer to successful trading when the range remains narrow. That's why most of the current sellers must be losing money, since they are unlikely to be people who have been LTHs.

"Volumes this week have been half to a third of normal trading."

Was thinking the same. There's not much happening here except for a few sellers losing a bit of their money. The recent range has been too narrow to trade this successfully. The 0.5% stamp duty is a killer.

"How robust is the model being used?"

Hi SpruceGoose2. Would love to know the details of their predictive modelling but haven't had the time over the last day or so to investigate. My interest was piqued by the mention of Monte Carlo since it's one more element that shows the calibre of SXX and falls into the class of confidence boosting information that makes me want to buy more.