Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

Sorry same stupid mistake! Please ignore.

18.01% now
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AA./form-83-aa-plc-1c7dq7cb4f32vpg.html

1. Sell - Its an option. The NAV is almost closed to 555p. Just make sure you find a better fund!?!
2. Hold expecting premium - MERI and HGT are similar sectors, both Listed Private equity trading at a massive PREMIUM.
3. Hold expecting NAV growth - We could pencil in some growth. Draper target 20% pa so we should hope for NAV of 610p at the end of this year and 680 buy this time next year. Speculative but doable.

My own view is that the GROW and HGT are both lagging the market and recovery is still that of under a world tracker like VWRL when it should be tracking more like the NASDAQ or Software as a service index. For this reason, this stock is very strong buy in comparison to other tec funds. MERI is trading at a massive premium and rightly so. I believe GROW will catch up.

Starling Bank has bucked the trend: It's back on track to turn a profit by the end of this year.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/starling-bank-profit-coronavirus

Looks like I profit taken a little too soon!

:-(

Pianista, apologies that would be bond holding I presume. Still its some rise from previous to 12%.

And at this rate, I expect another RNS from Albert Bridge tomorrow. The seller must be at 29p. This could be a nice floor for an offer.

Pianista - "It's true that Albert Bridge has upped its stake to 17.99% - but only from 17.97%."

12.079% on 04 Aug 2020 (day before)
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AA./holdings-in-company-bdfbdqutqj2l5s6.html

17.99% on 5 August 2020 (yesterday)
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AA./form-83-aa-plc-3hb8c91jap7fgxb.html

With a potential 4th interested party with lunchtime RNS today of holdings upped to 17.99% for Albert Bridge Capital LLP.

Agree, let's keep an eye on the RNS's and feet on the ground.

Sadly I can't find any evidence of them buying at higher than today's price. The good news is that this is at least some sort of floor right?

(apologies for the multiple posts - I hope you all had a good lunch).

They paid about 70 pence over 12 months ago.

What is the highest price paid by Albert Bridge Capital LLP in the last 12 months?

"Where a bidder is interested in shares carrying 30% or more of the target’s voting share rights, the bidder must make a mandatory offer in cash at no less than the highest price paid during the preceding 12 months (often referred to as a "Rule 9 offer"). " https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk/

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AA./form-83-aa-plc-3hb8c91jap7fgxb.html

Wiseman post on ADVF7 at present was bang on the money. We just have to wait, not long to go, and the AA share price has slipped just a bit to fit in with the overall market as PI's are the only ones selling. Shame there are planks on their too asking him stupid questions.

However, there are two events next week that may impact the share price

1. This Friday a possible rise for next Monday's event that should see about cr£1m buys for cr5000 buyers. Very small volume. May not have any effect.

* Monday rise for Tuesday's event - This the trading update.

Then it is not long until the end of the month.

The BOD want a bidding war into the pounds but I don't see that as remotely probable.

deemule - I hope you can now see from my posts above that cteal calculations don't quite add up.

Thank you cteal, but I was only coming down to a level we all understand, but I also ague who would expect a dividend return of 12% on equity? Equities are yielding 4%. That only requires captial NAV growth of 6% pa easily doable for PE. Remember they can only convert 900m of the debt by investing cr1.2 billion taking debt down to 1.7 billion.

Like I wrote we can continue to do basic math all day but we are will never be better than than the army of analysts from 4 organisations!!!!!

Reduced by 50%. MERI is now trading at a hefty premium to NAV now. You can get better value in a similar fund GROW where I have moved most of the funds. I will wait for the next NAV report before I think about adding back.

What cteal is saying (correct me if I am incorrect) is something like; if we presume a buyer invests 3 billion in the AA then hypothetically this investment converts all debt into equity the return on 3b of 12% dividend for the private equity company requires £360m of FCF just to pay this. Currently operating free cash flow after capital expenditure was only £228m (2019: £173m).

We must all respect this.

But I argue that we can look into the quantitative data all-day long to make adjustments on the above, but we are not smarter than the 3 bidders and their army of analysts. The private equity cycle can be long (not just 5 years) and complex and the 3 bidders know what they are doing. We are not going to get pounds for this I agree. But all going well we will get something.

There are some planks on these forums and you are NOT one of them. We just agree to disagree.

cteal wrote: "...the bidders like the last bidder that took this company private need 10-12 % return"

Absolutely. And they would have worked this out in their cycle and will not overpay. But we PI's can not work this out ourselves and rely on the qualitative facts to hand like 3 bidders.