Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

That's right I believe a short can only be taken on an upswing. They have to bet against the trading update, that I find remarkable. This will get interesting if they need to close that on positivity.

yorkshirespud, we are all aware of the takeover rules. Also, I understand why you'd be amazed if any agreed takeover price is over 50p as any quantitative analysis we do should really be left to the experts due to the complex nature. Not just debt to equity = lower borrowings rates... I would just stick to what we understand. Average share price held, no bidders have pulled out etc.. etc..

"Funny old movement on the sp today" Flurry of buys mostly from PI's with low values. No idea why when money could be used to buy the dip in the US. For this reason, I would suspect there is some other "other" cohort of PI's buying... if you know what I mean.

HereKittyKitty. There can be no certainty of any deal as with any investment. You must work out the probability by yourself and allocate the appropriate amount. Personally I recommend you invest in funds first. Something like the Blue Whale Growth Fund then allocates the equivalent of their top holding (something like 10-5% in the AA).

My opinions are my own. The bidders will need a final bid of at least 55p to keep recent investors (ABC) and staff from losing money. Then there is the fact that potentially there are multiple bidders who could take the final share price speculatively to 75p plus. We do not know what private companies are working together from official sources, but what we do know as fact is that non have pulled out.

Meanwhile the AA is working on alternative finance paths around increasing equity to reduce interest on the debt accumulated by private equity. ownership. This should mean any dilution will come in at a higher share price than today... possibly even what the Private companies are willing to pay as a guide. This would position the AA for growth and speculatively fast debt repayments. The AA without the debt is worth over 600p... though we will all be gone before that ever happens (in more mays than one! HA!).

No one knows about the situation with the trading update, we suspect it will be out with the bids or deals. It is known that the AA is doing well under Simon Breakwell. Lets hope we don't get the headline "Breakwell puts the brakes on any deal".

Good luck.

The volume has been so thin for weeks that PI's are able to influence the direction. I thought the AA share price held up really well despite the wider market sell-off. Expect the share price to bounce back between now and the announcements.

Hi Rapper, GROW is down due to the massive selling of the sector for "Covid-19 Stay At Home Stocks" largely compromising of the NASDAQ and held by funds such as Baillie Gifford's Scottish Morgage Trust. They are typically higher valuations such as P/E. They all fell on Friday and the US market had a Bank Holiday yesterday. This naturally may have an effect on the listed value of GROW and other listed Private Equity funds... and the market in general.

Who knows if this is part of a wider correction or simply a dip. I am happy to buy on the dip. Added just over a grand today. As Steph mentioned the NAV result will be out in a couple of months and we could well see a good 20-30% gain.

Hi Steph, I am pretty chuffed with the other fund too (the Marian one), performance for both have been very similar. Marian still own some TransferWise and a better disruptor bank in my opinion in Starling Bank. Both share a holding in Graphcore. I think Marian like to hold much longer into the cycle while GROW are much more early-stage, either that or GROW are planning to buy something exciting soon with the cash pile!

JamesBond. A case of The pot calling the kettle black. I will admit I may have got the Sale issue wrong but you certainly got the underwriting of the motor policies incorrect.

Despite this, the RAC still discounting with a 3-month free offer: https://www.rac.co.uk/breakdown-cover

Thanks jpge. I was confident this news would come in. The new owners will hope The AA are in tip-top condition regarding legal issues if the RAC should fire back.

JPGE do you have link that would confirm this? This is very good news for the (new owners of) The AA.

Sources inside the company have told me some time ago that The AA was going after the RAC for this and initiated the complaint. I mentioned this a few weeks ago. The reason was that RAC was always on SALE. Even when they are shown not to be on sale anyone doing a quote would receive an email saying that there was a sales link to follow. The RAC have been doing this for a very long time eating into The AA dominent market share on price.

The AA do not do sales. But as a nice present for The RAC, it looks like the AA are doing a Summer Sale for the first time to hit them hard. I do not believe The AA has ever discounted before?

jamesbond0071977 is an pig-headed ex-employee who left The AA and has not had the decency to research the company and see what has changed. He looks down on all of us with unbelievable disdain. Read the reports. The company has transformed.

Bond says "its you lot talking twaddle". Bond please refrain from posting and insulting those who have done their homework. Are you an ex-employee from a few many years ago with outdated knowledge? You should know the motor and home insurance part is a small part of the business that they can grow. The AA now underwrites more and more of their motor policies as of a year or so ago!

26% uplift since 31 March 2020. is impressive but not unexpected given the performance of listed stocks in similar sectors.

https://www.merian.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/2020.09.01-mcicl-announcement-nav-as-at-30-june-2020.pdf

Rover62, the 200p that you paid was a fair price. The BOD may well be in talks with Alber Bridge and Apollo to work on a deal that will benefit shareholders and you could see you get your money back as the markets may see indebted companies as cheap again due to inflation period we could be entering into for the first time in my lifetime. As much as 4%.

I hope no one is worried about the share price today that allowed traders to jump into Saga? The AA ship is turning around and it is a big ship. I am sure will see 40p and the trading update so don't worry about the red paper losses on your screens for now.

"So just over 2 months to wait for some official guidance on post COVID crash valuation of portfolio."
- My other fund similar to this just received an 26% uplift since 31 March 2020 to NAV. Feeling confident about buying above the current NAV for the long run.

gewillia, sadly I am ignorant of quantitative numbers and valuations. There is also a mistake with the Factsheet that claims MERI had a 14% allocation to THG. The Hut Group Limited on 20/12/2018 and October of the following year acquired a total of £29,648,000 valued at £32,762,000 makes up 9% of MERI that had a NAV of £365,873,000. I am not sure if you have enough information to calculate a NAV increase.

Numbers are not my thing... I use qualitative factors to determine the worth of a company like ambition, the usefulness and usability of the products perhaps even how "cool" a product is.

Source:
https://www.merian.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/merian-chrysalis-investment-company-ltd-interim-accounts-to-31-march-2020.pdf

"They don’t want it to drag on that long that is why the BOD have said put up or shut up. This will happen very quickly now."
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Yes this was the reason. But it is interesting to see the AA are now having a "sale". They have never done a Sale as far as I am aware and using waybackmachine you will see RAC is always on sale. I think a delay would help in our favour as I am convinced they are doing well as a company. Any PE would also know this and this could help accelerate a bid.

Lets hope to get the results in.

Investors buying back in, remember it is a Bank holiday weekend and the price will be more competitive on Tuesday.