Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

Bit disappointing considering the rise of others during the period and the foreign exchange rate.

But we will get it on our site soon. Site to remain anonymous, but is a very well known brand.

B

Broker forecasts are 1-year target so 645p is reasonable for this time next year. This year we can hope the discount to close to 555p (not including NAV growth) as there should be no discount here or other companies like HGT are overvalued (see HGT recent drop from premium, same may happen to MERI).

C19 will have some impact on results where new business may have been deferred into the next month. Where I work implementation of Trustpilot has been held up.

Good see some chunky buying above 500p.

Disappointingly the S&P Software & Services sector had a little dip but the long term trend is up. Though this is a sector in the US only it is used to value European stocks on the basis of NAV.

https://www.google.com/search?&q=S%26P+Software+%26+Services&oq=S%26P+Software+%26+Services

Does not look like there will be late trades today to see the shenanigans, however, I did catch this one. It is hard to say but it looks like the drift down of typical PI volume had been bought by an institution for £361.13k :

13-Jul-20
14:55:19
481.50
75,000
Unknown*
480.00
483.00
£361.13k

In other news, European tech fund HGT now has a 10% premium to NAV and still looking to go up while GROW is still on a 15% discount!

Steff, I have to say I also use a spreadsheet. All my funds target 15% pa. There is fund in the disruption sector up YTD 60% currently entering bubble territory and that is Ballie Gifford's SMT, the top performer with silly P/E's. But GROW is for Ballie Gifford far more reasonable non-bubble European fund. This is where speculatively we could get a rise. MERI is maintaining and increasing its premium to NAV and GROW share many of the holdings.

When an institution normally puts a short on they often always win as they are privy to some deep research. But clearly GCG must have attempted to hedge the crash with a short. Take joy in the fact no other institution followed their mistake and I look forward to them exiting that will drive the price up again.

GLG Partners LP story at GROW is an interesting one. As the coronavirus pandemic hit stock markets from late February, it was clear to many from past events such as the financial crisis that alternative equity markets fell the hardest. The lack of liquidity of the holdings in trust made them risky. GLG Partners LP who own an excellent European fund looked to profit from this and during the slide had put in a short on GROW to complement other shorts like HGT (but that is another story).

Newer rules of shorting prevented GLC from placing that short until there was an upswing. This was quite a waiting game as the share price fell to 280p and then 260p and finally, there was an upswing and an opportunity to short was taken. 0.67% short on the 26th of March at about 310p, but greedy for more completed 0.70% short on the 27th at under 320p.

Unfortunately for GLG now the markets started to recover. This had proved to be a very bad move. Competing funds from Baillie Gifford was buying and GLG decides to sell some that resulted in a short squeeze sending the share price to 472p. GLG only managed to buy back 0.2% reported on the 1st of June at a heavy loss. When this was reported buyers like me bought a bit more 480p knowing GLG still had 0.5% short to buy back. This is why it was so hard to buy stock before this time.

I presume GLC will be managing their exit but with GROW being under the radar to prevent a short squeeze may not be easy. I don't claim to be an expert in these complex matters but it looks like GLC had got GROW very badly wrong. Maybe you can come up with your own story based on the facts here:
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BY7QYJ50/

Agree a weird day for GROW. I also rebalanced profits elsewhere into GROW but also a US-based listed private equity fund. We did not see any of those solid institutional level trades seen at 480p so this was a low volume dip. The rest of the markets are up so rebalancing worked really well having sold some PIN today (still great value) and sold some MERI. That's the power of diversification.

As I type the (overpriced) US markets are all green after worsening C19 news in the morning. The worse c19 gets the better digital-based stocks will do. Unprecedented times.

"We’re not lending to riskier consumers… we’re accepting [more], better quality customers,” Griffiths explained.

https://sifted.eu/articles/klarna-coronavirus-boost/

https://www.ft.com/content/0733e936-062c-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

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https://www.ft.com/content/0733e936-062c-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

Microsoft has said users of its Azure cloud service will have access to specialised chips designed to boost artificial intelligence applications, made by the UK chipmaker Graphcore.

The $1.5bn chip company, based in Bristol, is the first start-up whose AI chips will be available at this scale, giving it an edge in the race to build a new generation of specialised chips.

“This [move] is very significant for us because it means anyone on the planet can go to Azure and use our technology to build out their systems,” said Graphcore’s chief executive Nigel Toon. “It’s a massive step for the availability of our technology and a testament to its level of maturity.”

Graphcore is building new hardware to run intensive, power-hungry applications that every high-tech industry, from automotive to health, security and manufacturing, will need to run when they integrate machine learning into their systems.

The widespread adoption of technology will allow computers to spot patterns and make discoveries from large data sets. The market is crowded with companies including Intel, Nvidia, and Cerebras and giants such as Google, Amazon and Apple, who are all working on AI-optimised chips.

Graphcore’s chip, which it calls an “intelligence processing unit”, can be used to train machine learning algorithms, and the start-up claims its systems are 10 to 100 times faster than existing chips for applications such as image recognition, voice processing and video analysis.

So far, early customers have claimed big improvements to their AI-driven work since using Graphcore chips. European search engine Qwant said it had experienced a 3.5x speed-up in its image search application since using Graphcore chips, while hedge fund Carmot Capital said it saw a 26x speed up on some of its financial analysis applications.

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Read more at https://www.ft.com/content/0733e936-062c-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

Starling Bank looking to raise up to £35m with two new BCR grants
https://www.altfi.com/article/6778_starling-bank-looking-to-raise-up-to-60m-with-two-new-bcr-grants

"People close to TransferWise said the share sale was being undertaken at a $5bn valuation - a 30% premium to an almost identical transaction just over a year ago." https://news.sky.com/story/transferwise-hits-4bn-valuation-as-employees-cash-out-12022305

Both EU listed private equity funds I follow now trading at a premium HGT at 2.4% and looking to move up and as you know MERI is at 10%+ premium. GROW remains undervalued.

"People close to TransferWise said the share sale was being undertaken at a $5bn valuation - a 30% premium to an almost identical transaction just over a year ago."
https://news.sky.com/story/transferwise-hits-4bn-valuation-as-employees-cash-out-12022305

Good to see Jupiter Fund Management have kept Richard Watts (from MERI) who must be the reason they are keeping GROW and adding upto 8.80%. Richard is far too smart to be reading forums. Good luck.

OK so I have made another mistake. The RNS is false or misleading as Merian Global Investors (UK) have NOT been selling or buying. What has happened is Jupiter Fund Management have taken Merian over and then added some more funds into GROW.

Jupiter Fund Management has a terrible track record so buying out Merian will strengthen them considerably.

Sorry my mistake Merian are selling to Jupiter Fund Management! Baillie Gifford are definitely bought though.

Hi Steph, and there was me drawing comparisons to MERI when today's RNS announced Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited are buying GROW. I think I mentioned Baillie Gifford style before they started buying here. A very weird situation for me while don't hold many funds having both Merian and Baillie Gifford buying in such a short period of time is staggering.

Good timing to top up. Seeing trades as the £157.20k worth bough at 480p and rising is a pretty good sign. I don't see the mark-down of NAV for C19 lows of 555p is actually a little harsh considering the sectors, so will close quickly to match those of MERI now trading at a premium.

"...why we are below 500." my hunch is that there are few more institutional investors wanting to sell and rebalance combined with little publicity that the last RNS mentions will be addressed. It's a tricky stock to sell as its a fund of private equity / VC. But the underlining companies is the type companies that is needed in the Baillie Gifford UK Growth Fund, so they can embrace Baillie Gifford qualitative valuation methods (as opposed to pure quantitative). These types of companies can not be found listed in the UK.

Qualitative valuation methods are also not popular (though SMT has proven extremely effective because it is a differentiator). Therefore there is a heavy rare discount here. But there does not need to be as proved by HGT and MERI. Even AUGM whose holdings I am not at all convinced about has done better.

I am happy for the discount to remain as I accumulate slowly using my method of getting rich slowly by targeting a modest 15% annualised with a balanced portfolio. This gives me a better chance of success than targeting 20% total portfolio return. no matter how good GROW's prospects are there are external factors that may prevent this.