Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

Not a huge part of GROW but UiPath is one of them:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/uipath-files-confidentially-for-ipo-51608252665

I presume all the data from this forum thread would move across to CHRY...
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MERI/results-of-extraordinary-general-meeting-ew2h73o73lwdgod.html

I am hoping that your hope for broker upgrades come in as I rebalanced and increase GROW by a couple of grand this morning as the technicals look stronger for 700p, and MERI also reached NAV. In addition, I had an HVPE prediction that has come to fruition as NAV their jumped 9% this morning so I maybe in a position to buy some more next week. I expect a leg up for HGT at some point soon, again around 10% in NAV.

It been a good tail end to the year going in heavy on VC and LPE. In the new year I am going to have an alternative strategy of buy and hold and only rebalance half-yearly as markets normalise somewhat. I am even buying trackers!

Up 9% at the midpoint of my estimated range. Should continue to do well into 2021.

The fact sheet is really hard to read the holdings allocation. This is taken from Quarterly NAV Announcement 11 December 2020 and posted here for quick reference:

Holdings:

14.4% Klarna
14.1% THG (IPO'ed)
11.6% TransferWise
10.4% Starling Bank (t/o roomers by JPMorgan and Lloyds)
09.8% Graphcore AI (considering listing on the NASDAQ in 2022)
09.0% Embark
7.3% wefox
6.8% You & Mr Jones (really good new entry)
5.5% Featurespace
2.5% Secret Escapes (recovery play)
2.5% Sorted
0.2% Growth Street
5.7% Cash

https://www.merian.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2020.12.11-announcement-nav-as-at-30-september-2020.pdf

Steph, thanks for the info. I am glad we are all positive buying in on this dip to what is technically resistance line that more often than not we will bounce from, but any breaking of this line means forming another trend (and there has been wider market negative news as well as the CFO). The broker target suggests to me a less steep trend should form at some point otherwise we will overshoot the NAV and broker target. I know you would like to see a large premium for GROW and while I do agree because I class GROW as "value chasing tech", I am not sure if the market will see it this way. When we get the next NAV report and broker feedback, we can have a discussion on a target price for 2021.

If a no-deal does happen and pound crashes then for me it is hard to understand the impact to GROW. The top holding of GROW is Graphcore and earning are mostly in the USD giving us a boost, but I think this is in the minority, as the second Trustpilot and many of the minority holdings (Cazoo, Decibel etc..) earning are in GBP. On the flipside, I wonder if no-deal with less regulation for the UK will be easier for these smaller digital companies. I also think with more *certainty* the UK can move on and prosper regardless of outcome.

Better URL without the Google redirect
https://siliconcanals.com/news/startups/10-largest-funding-rounds-of-europe-in-2020/

Europe's 10 largest investments. Two or three in GROWs portfolio.
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://siliconcanals.com/news/startups/10-largest-funding-rounds-of-europe-in-2020/

I added some at 614 and was happy to see a large UT at 625p and would think the CFO shares have all been sold.

In the longer term we (especially me) need an European upgrades after Brexit despite being in all tech. The result of this would be that funds like Baillie Gifford European Fund would have more inflows than outflows meant meaning this would impact BG holding in GROW directly. Baillie Gifford is the most successful investment company of the last 5+ years

Wish there was an edit option. Klarna not Klama.

Klama continues to make loads of money and now valued at of 10 billion, but is a holding I hope MERI will get rid off given the questionable ethics in this article...

https://www.newstatesman.com/business/finance/2020/12/klarna-millennial-empire-started-crumble-credit-score

There should be a period where there is grab on all equities. For GROW I think that will be next week according to my charts that say more often than not we will rise :-). The CFO news and overhang should by then have passed... I suspect the 381.99k UT was part of that?

Agree would have expected a little more given the relative performance of public markets. These are 1 year targets so I expect higher.

Part of reason for only 700p could be cos the likes of BlackRock have down grades Europe that forms a massive 50% if my portfolio. But being in the tech space I feel like I am well geared. US forms 25% and Asia (mostly JAGI) forms another 25%.

Your doing well, and I too am betting on a good outcome.

Regarding how cheap stocks are here are some links from Tim in the citywide forum...

The thing is, it's only what the rest of the world has been saying for around a decade now. For example:
- 2012 SeekingAlpha article "Yes, They Do: Low Interest Rates Do Make Stocks Cheap" https://seekingalpha.com...es-do-make-stocks-cheap
- 2015 "If we continue with these interest rates, stocks will look very cheap” quote from Warren Buffett https://www.penderfund.c...s-will-look-very-cheap/
- 2016 "Stocks aren’t overvalued as long as interest rates stay low" article https://www.marketwatch....tes-stay-low-2016-04-21
- 2016 "With interest rates low, investment funds look attractive" article https://www.theguardian....investment-funds-savers
- 2017 "Low Rates Make Stocks 'Dirt Cheap'" again from Buffet https://www.forbes.com/s...-cheap/?sh=3ec6be766fba

Thanks the L&G Robo ETF is now on my radar along with L&G Battery Value-Chain ETF (BATG),

Who knows if P/E ratings should fall because like I mentioned with no more risk of stock market crashes due to government bailouts, P/E ratings in the future are predicted by some to go to 100 (reed King Lordos on Citywire Forum) and will eventually yield a tiny percentage making retirement from pensions pots for future generations impossible.

For now all that money on low yielding bonds will flow into equities helping to push P/E higher and higher.

With this new top-down way of looking at investments and with the understanding that we can't simply pick the winners from looking at P/E ratings. Look at the chart and the trendlines for GROW:

https://ibb.co/GQVnbcn

(The red marker is the departure of the CFO , I expect recovery at the trendline but is short term risk. As long as the sector grows this will be fine)

I am not saying one is better than the other for sure. There is absolutely nothing in it and the qualitative news with the likes of Graphcore but also the departure of CFO here has put slight lean towards MERI in the coming months.

Combined with a holding in public markets US and Asia it is important for me to have a balanced portfolio and GROW + MERI + HGT adds the perfect blend of VC + Small Caps + Mid-sized companies. Many believe is impossible to say which funds or companies will be the long terms winners by looking at earnings.

It is qualitative factors that matter and I not nesseriliy talking about Tesla and space rockets but can use them as an example. I certainly would not buy them now, but it is a great example. The factors that make investments rise change over time.

Here is an example of change:
Jim Cramer says young investors ‘changed the entire character of the market’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/jim-cramer-young-investors-changed-the-entire-character-of-the-market.html

But the far future is a lot more pessimistic. Investment is related to risk. The higher the risk the greater the potential return. Right now we are seeing very little risk because governments are bailing businesses out. The return of 20% per annum we both hope to get over the years will be impossible for at least all future generations beyond us.

I gave up on bottom-up analysis some years ago so while you could be right, I am not sure I agree with 40% ahead trailing NAV/share for GROW when it comes against MERI. Both hold Graphcore at around 13% and by late January or early February I see more upside in MERI (in return for short term volatility). MERI also has Starling Bank in possible takeover talks with Lloyds and JP Morgan. I would hold GROW, MERI and even HGT in equal weights.

I believe AUGM has been relatively overvalued for some time so never really paid it much attention.

My valuation methods are Qualitative bottom-up + Sector analysis + Chart data + NAV. Absolutely no accounts.

2020 would fit in nicely with our steady, safer, follow the trend strategy much aligned to GROW's.

Graphcore is the biggest holding at around 13% of GROWs NAV and should provide a short term boost when listing of around I suspect 7%. Would be sad to see it go if it does.