Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

Out today in the times. I recall GROW attributing a large chunk of NAV to the AI chip manufacturer.

https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/12/06/blow-uk-tech-ambitions-graphcore-mulls-nasdaq-listing/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoUMTE1MDg3NTU4MjYyMjU0MjY0NjgyHGEzMDI4MjZkNGQxNzJiMWQ6Y28udWs6ZW46R0I&usg=AFQjCNHoZ7OW2K6XPTANPL_aVoBCiTKD_w

Officially in the digital news : The Times.co.uk - JP Morgan and Lloyds set sights on Starling
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jp-morgan-and-lloyds-set-sights-on-starling-vz9gb0lfl

"The number of British banks that are considering changing ownership rose by two yesterday after JP Morgan Chase and Lloyds expressed interest in buying Starling Bank.

If the digital challenger bank was purchased, it could lead to the first big merger of an established lender with a start-up in Britain.

At the same time, TSB, the high street bank, was put on the block by Sabadell, its Spanish owner.

JP Morgan, America’s biggest bank, is understood to have talked about taking on Starling as it prepares to launch its consumer bank in the UK in the new year. Starling would give JP Morgan 1.9 million customers from day one. Lloyds, Britain’s largest retail bank, is understood to be interested in Starling’s technology.

The interest has..."

Most of the portfolio should be adding significantly to the NAV... more than 5 percent less than 15 percent. Not to be sniffed at for 2 months.

JP Morgan backed Nutmeg is linking with Staring to add some interest over JP Morgan and Lloyds...
https://www.uktech.news/news/uk-digital-bank-starling-adds-nutmeg-to-its-marketplace-to-make-investing-accessible-20201204

Plymouth1, Thank you for sharing. Tis the season to be sharing so here is my chart and the red line is the point at which we must close above to resume the old trend or start a new trend. Today we hang above it.
https://ibb.co/Y3Ldzwp

Obviously, the chart tells you that the SP is going to be higher or lower on the trend lines, like all shares, but there are bullish indicators and they all point upwards.

Let's hope so. Have a read of this and join us:
https://moneyforums.citywire.co.uk/yaf_postst10664_What-s-the-point-of-investing-in-the-FTSE-250.aspx

There is a balancing act. They need to exiting good companies (Transferwise) to raise enough funds but I wildly speculate they may have sold out of Transferwise this because Baillie Gifford own a chunk of TransferWise worth somewhere in the region of £5billion.

I would then think Baillie Gifford would even buy out GROW in the coming years as it fits in with their way of thinking and BG only ever buy companies and those companies that are worth more than £500m. They may then take it private to be accessed by their bigger funds.

Another tenuous link is that the Fund Manager of MERI also managers Jupiter Small Companies after Jupiter had taken over Marien. Then he bought into GROW and MERI for this fund. Jupiter has not been great but with a Merian manager in the small caps space, he may do well.

Don't be tempting me with UK builders unless it's a fund. Some small caps are so tempting. Almost bought BWNG because so many high street clothing manufacturers are going bust.

Hopefully a great move, both GROW and MERI allow you to reballance when one gets too far ahead of the other but you never want to sell out of either completely. CFO moving on with his shares is sadly after is great work.

Lots of value UK PLC shooting up feels regretfull and tempting even to me, but technology is a megatrend with limited downside risk via funds that in the long run reduces bottom up risk and so has a much better chance of winning.

Start reading Citywide Fund Forum where there are some really experienced investors. Especially King Lordos and Tim D.

Plymouth1, apologies I was not precise in my language. The Earnings Report should have been released today (hence the SP movement). This report may have included NAV. This RNS has not yet been released... hence the drop in SP again. It could in theory arrive at any moment but we suspect because of Starling Bank the financially sensitive RNS are being held up.

I was not aware you had professional experience of the sector that would form part of the qualitative approach to go along with your numbers. Thats great. I am still more reassured by the Baillie Gifford buying in here and you should be too.

I am not sure I agree with the diluting of profits per share if the new money is used for higher rates of growth.

But urge you to diversify, at least into MERI. There is an opportunity there right now under the placing price of around 150p, because the NAV reports are being missed for many months now. The market hates uncertainty. The underlining holdings are as interesting including TransferWise and Graphcore that you are familiar with in GROW.

.... DireEmblem, I am interested in your NAV guestimate but wait! according to Bloomberg, AI chip designer Graphcore is reported to be close to raising a further $200m to take its valuation above $2bn. Given the incredible growth of AI including AI ETF's then this is the top one IMHO. This means pretty much everything MERI is in undervalues the company greatly on a qualitative basis. The delay in the Earnings report has added uncertainty, unnecessarily, becuase both because of the sector and our qualitative look at the underlining holdings.

Since it has gone lunchtime today the 2nd of December, we now have a delayed *Earnings Report* for the period ending September 2020. The chart clearly expects this report and is hovering over a resistance point ready to breakout or retrace. My charts now go out the window. I am hoping we do not retrace as the overwhelming evidence is that MERI's portfolio of companies are doing really well. No really really well! It clearly does look like radio silence on the numbers until perhaps MERI are forced to in The Annual Results late January.

By Aisling Finn on Tuesday 1 December 2020
https://www.altfi.com/article/7321_transferwise-granted-banking-licence-by-australian-regulator

Steph your clearly a smart person. But you are only one person attempting to do bottom-up analysis against entire teams of analysis. A stock would need to be well off the radar for you to somehow discover insight the market has missed. And these unloved companies maybe full of other risk including qualitative factors we consider.

This level of due Diligence (or whatever we call it) may have worked for in the past but consider you got lucky (I did not). I hope this luck stays with you, but as the company gets bigger or in our case more complex the bottom-up analysis is of no use.

I use top-down Analysis starting with asset classes, then sector trends, then region trends, then sub-sectors and leave 99% of the bottom-up analysis to the fund managers. Have a reed of the free Citywire Fund Forums to find out from experienced investors.

Regarding the results. This is great. With gas in the tank, we can continue our steady run. Ignore all the noise of UK PLC booming on vaccine news. Don’t let emotion dictate decisions, as all too often that leads investors to sell equities and other risky assets near the bottom of the market. Retain a focus on the long-term objectives, our core investing principles that align to current valuations and trajectory of GROW... at least for a few more months :-)

In my experience of Listed VC and Private Equity (LPE) revaluation is done independently in December so that it is a fair playing field for all (e.g. Please read the HVPE NAV report). HVPE is one of the largest Private Equity (PE) firms in the world and combines the majority of PE, some VC and because of size the listed stock from IPO's. It is a bit like an index tracker for PE. You get a good idea of how things are done by reading their reports.

Don't sell your shares to Bidco. This was always on the cards. I don't see some of the smaller holders and the staff voting for 35p. I am holding out for 75p. Rates may even be negative and corporate debt will be in demand.

How's being out of the market with ATT playing out? ATT continue its trend finding new trends in tech and continuing to rise. Now vaccine news is known it's hard to tell where the next downturn will happen.

I continue to buy and will add on the dips.

gewillia thank you for posting. This is I suppose great news. I have been following Anna's bank for a while and was going to buy her book and follow the story as it unfolds. On a personal level I will be sad to see Starling move on.