The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
@knowbodyyouknow - I think we can take a safe guess and assume that the previous RCF was less expensive that the replacement one, but indeed you’re correct, we don’t know the exact number.
With the sort of cashflow we have seen in the H1 results, it is very important that H2 is cash flow positive. However, what stops ASC from assigning that £75m placing as income for H2 and then that would perhaps tip them into ‘profitability’? It could be the case that ASC still reports a loss on an IFRS basis (especially if the macroeconomic conditions remain the same), but by ASC’s accounting, they come out in profit because they have attributed the placing as income for the half-year?
This is the absolute worst time for anyone to make any refinancing arrangements on any debt. Even if the RCF was due to mature in November 2024, it seems wise to at least delay any refinancing until H2 this year where the economic situation may have improved, and you could get a fresh vote of confidence from positive cash generation as they say they are anticipating. Then you could go to the negotiating table with your lenders and perhaps arrange the same £350m RCF amount (or possibly even higher) and at a lower interest rate. Instead they got 11% interest on a reduced RCF, which does not show a lot of optimism from lenders. 11% interest per annum on £275m RCF (assuming full utilisation) is about £30m in interest on that new arrangement alone.
Either the CEO does not believe H2 will be cash-flow positive or foresees a major liquidity event that means this is the best possible time for him to refinance the RCF. Otherwise, the better choice would have been to wait.
Contingent upon the CEO’s success with the newly-replenished balance sheet and a (hopeful) near end to the cost of living crisis, the company should hopefully begin to restart dividends in the future.
Just received my first NEX dividend today for the first time since they suspended the dividend in 2020, there remains a fantastic opportunity for SDRY if they successfully get the company back on track and profitable.
Let’s see what happens.
@El-Loco, agreed. Waiting for a good chunk to put straight into here.
Solid management, if you take a look at the results where they first announced the reinstatement, I believe they mentioned they were aiming for the interim dividend to be approx 33% of the final one? I assume that the amount of the final dividend for each year will be dependent upon company performance.
Fantastic opportunity at this level in my view, especially if the company returns to their previous dividend levels…
Just received the dividend from T212 platform.
Left these shares in the bottom drawer for over 24 months, so was a nice surprise to get the dividend. Might increase the shareholding now to get a higher dividend next time.
I believe this was the very first dividend since the reinstatement. Should just be upwards and forwards from here now, all the best everyone and enjoy the dividend
Hello all, interesting set of results yesterday. ASC has been on my watchlist for months and months and it always seems to drop and drop, like catching a falling knife.
Just 2 questions from yesterday's earnings.
1. Taking a look at the cash flow statement, if it were not for the £250m utilisation of the RCF, cash flow would have been circa -£260m for the half-year. Company says that it has £408.6m in cash and undrawn facilities remaining for use. With that in mind, the company only has sufficient liquidity to survive just about 10 months from today without any further capital raise. CEO is saying that he does not see an equity issue on the horizon, how far down is his horizon, one year? The CEO will not come out and say that a rights issue/equity raise is needed off the bat as it would instantly diminish the amount of money the company could obtain from such an event, so best to keep quiet and drop the equity raise notification without prior warning. You can only take his word at face value there.
I am not saying that an equity raise is coming immediately (or at all for that matter), but without some form of a capital raise the company has nearly 1 year left of cash. Is it estimated/hoped that the economic conditions will improve to such a state that ASC will be able to generate sufficient cash from its operations and skirt the need to raise additional capital?
Question 2. What is going on with the excess stock??? Stock write-off of ~£120m, that is money down the toilet. According to the CFO (who also appears to be on her way out and replacement is another interim), there is still approx £1bn of stock remaining. I assume that is excess merchandise? If it is, can anybody guess what the company anticipates to do with it? Fashion is a fast-moving industry, depending on the length that the stock has been retained there it may already be the case that a lot of it is out-of-fashion and cannot be sold at it's standard price, meaning either a large reduction/sale to clear the excess (however would damage ASC reputation of being a high-quality and high-cost retailer), or yet another stock write-off?
Would love to hear opinions on the two questions above, and thank you in advance.
Agree with the beginning posts in this thread. We are just at the bottom of the food chain. Mooky likely to get something out of this even in the worst case to my understanding.
I personally have not returned my business to Cineworld after all this happened, and I don’t think I will. Again, it is unlikely to make a difference, but it is quite despicable that there are different treatments of shareholders depending on whether they’re the CEO or not.
CINE has taught me a lot, primarily to ensure I implement proper risk management. I’m considering perhaps selling off now before the seemingly imminent suspension comes.
So now after the equity raise has taken place, we have about 96m shares outstanding.
It appears to me that the issuance of the equity via the bookbuilding process has already occurred? Barely any drop in the price, even though the discount was small I would have expected to see a bit of a bigger drop?
Not bad at all either way, I will be opening a position shortly. The balance sheet has been reinforced now with the sale of the IP and this issuance. Look forward to conversing with you all in the near future :)
Hello all, would like some advice from those that have previously dealt with delisting of one of their stocks before.
I understand the stock essentially gets frozen and nobody can buy or sell, it just stays there and a process happens to establish what happens to shareholders (usually they get nothing). Does anybody know how long that takes? I still have MCLS and EVE shares from last year and they are still there. Any idea how long they take to go out from your portfolio?
@Merciaman, I must admit that I haven’t yet looked at the balance sheet and cash flow for MIRI yet, but my guess is that if they are unable to prove that they can monetise this, then lenders will become uninterested in waiting any longer for the return of their borrowings. They will give MIRI less flexibility on the terms of their borrowings.
If MIRI is making sufficient money to meet their debt obligations (interest mostly) then all is well and good. If not, and I’m guessing that will be the case come Q3 with no additional financing, then MIRI would start to default on their borrowing obligations, lenders won’t give them any further flexibility, and MIRI will be forced to enter bankruptcy proceedings.
Before getting to that point, I would not rule out a rights issue. But that depends on the current value of the equity. Considering it is now 1p, how much does the company stand to benefit from a rights issue? Any funds that come from either an additional source of financing or in the absence of such, a rights issue, will only be a quick solution to the issue. The central problem is that MIRI needs to find a way to capitalise and monetise their business, otherwise their debt obligations will catch up to them eventually and they will cease to exist.
As I said, I know nothing about the internals of this company, so what I may have said could be completely wrong. Will take a look when I get a chance.
@Merciaman, thanks for the reply. Just saw this on top losers earlier and I sometimes enjoy taking a small punt in some then exiting as soon as profit is seen.
If MIRI manage to secure that needed financing, then the upside from here would be really significant. May be the case that I take a small punt, and then exit partially when I see some profit and let the rest run.
Seems that MIRI has had its share price pummelled due to a liquidity warning? A sale process was started but that appears to have been terminated due to insufficient demand, so now the board have said that they have sufficient money to carry them to Q3 but after that, there is no guarantee unless they can get some further funding. If this is not achieved, then the board will consider other steps to ‘maximise value to stakeholders’ and we all know what that means.
Does that all sound about right?
Hi all, it has been a very busy week for me so I have just spent about 30 mins catching up on this board. A lot has taken place in the past week since the RNS.
First and foremost, it is sad to see the loss of some LTHs from this board, HNS most notably. Having read his post I can understand the reasons why. Such people have held for a very long time, so surely there will be a huge sense of relief once you press the sell button and get what you have left. Something is better than nothing. If this entire process culminates with shareholders taking zero, then HNS and others who have sold off, even at this late stage, would have made the right decision. But what happens if the opposite is true and shareholders see some recovery? It is this that I am holding out for. I know it is probably unlikely at this point, but when you have lost 95% what is the other 5%? Either way, I have a lot of respect for HNS and his commitment to this board. As BlueBuxton stated, he was a very rich source of information during his whole tenure here, and his absence will be noticed. I still look forward to seeing HNS around.
With those claiming for recovery and going through the legal route, good on you. I don't envy you at all as others have done, everyone has the right to make a legal claim if they feel there is something to get. It must be noted, however, that lawyers don't come cheap and I have concerns as to how those involved will pay for it. It wouldn't be good to waste several thousands and the result is a half-finished process that gets us nowhere. To those pursuing that route, please consider this carefully. All the best, and I'll be keeping an eye to see what is happening there.
A special mention to @patience for doing so much work and spending money to try and get a result for shareholders. I understand the letter is due to arrive tomorrow and I'm looking forward to see what happens.
Another week is ahead of us and the general meeting is soon upon us. Do we know who is planning to attend the meeting?
Is this now a complete fact, that Mooky has loaned out his shares to Sandgrove Capital? If so, can someone direct me to where they found this information?
Hello @StanleyPro, just starting to catch up with previous messages.
It could be the case that they will float the new company on the stock market a few years after once the debt is well dealt with and the box office recovers. Then there would be a compelling reason to re-float.
@HNS, such a shame to hear this. You have been an extremely valued member of this board. I hope you and all the rest of us find some path to recover the losses.
All the best with your next investments and hope to see you around the LSE website here and there :)
@daddy-c, very crazy indeed. I think it is going to be a full wipeout and the shares will be delisted in due course unless something is recoverable from the ROW segment. Based on what CINE has said this morning, it appears our hope is little with ROW.
I believe it is legal for them to wipe us out and for Mooky to have some sort of deal with the lenders where he is paid off. I think we will all be disappointed if we were left high and dry like that, but I am not ruling anything out.
I am also interested to see what happens to Mooky. This is the million dollar question now. We need to wait and see, that part will not be announced via RNS.
The deal should emerge sometime during this afternoon-evening once the US markets are open.
Keep your eyes peeled, you never know what could happen today.
Very nice price action today. There is an expectation of large news following the court session yesterday. I expect an RNS very soon and a document published on the PLC website which outlines the so-called Plan.
If not today or tomorrow, we’ll get it in approx 2 weeks max when the deadline for the ROW bids is reached. We know CVC and Elliott have already registered interest and may have already posted offers.
We all saw the estimate that ROW is approximated to be worth $500m. That would impute a price of around 36p. Even half of that value would be fantastic, some recovery is better than no recovery.
Let’s wait and see.