Member Info for mountainous

@west - interesting, that does appear to be the case.

I ordered around 5:30 today (07/07) and my order started with 36. So there does appear to be some order of sequentiality here.

Let’s calculate a bit here - the sample site states that they only ship to the UK.

If we look at page 9 of the interim results, we calculate that UK revenue accounted for approx 43.7% of ASC’s total interim revenues.

In the KPIs, we find that ASC shipped around 43.2m orders during the interim period. 43.7% of 43.2m is around 18.9m orders in the UK during the 6 month period - some extrapolation here, but I think it is a reasonable estimate.

Divide that 18.9m by the numbers of days in a half-year, and you get an average of 103k orders a day from the UK operations.

It becomes difficult to estimate how many orders that ASC has acquired from the sample site, because the likelihood is that on the first day, the numbers of orders was much higher than on Wednesday or Thursday because it was all fresh stock, as time went forward the surplus that remained became less desirable, so the way I see it is that there was a good amount on Tuesday, then it tapered off on Wednesday and Thursday, and on the new drop today, they got yet another big spike as more fresh stock was made available. So, difficult to predict how they did day-to-day, but the calculation above can give us a good idea of the effect that the sample site sales are having on total orders.

@west - good evening.

Thank you for that info regarding the change in the delivery charge. Likelihood is that the cost of shipping didn't go up for ASC, but they decided to capitalise on this huge stock outflow by slightly increasing the fee. If this happens to be the case, then the extra 50p is pure profit. That will certainly add up.

The whole event appears well-organised, well-structured and well-executed. The CEO and others involved get a thumbs-up from me so far. I will also add that when ordering on the sales site, you get just the one delivery option of 3-5 working days - no next-day delivery available. That should give sufficient time for ASC to pack and ship the orders without having to deploy a huge influx of extra staff. They realised that the offer is already good, so they don't need to sweeten it unnecessarily.

Thank you for your input Hexam and Wolf, much appreciated.

Heard about this recently and spent about 30 minutes on the site browsing. Some very decent stuff on there. Rapacious demand for the product - I had it filtered to the items that were in stock, and with every page I was passing there were at least 2-3 product lines going out of stock.

A very interesting observation, as made by another poster, is the arrival of a £2 return fee on any returns. Could this be a prerequisite to a returns fee being implemented on ASC as a whole, and not just on the sale site? If so, that could really do well to remove some of the unprofitable customers. I also note the presence of 7 different return options for UK customers, including drop off at an ASDA.

I believe ASC should provide free returns only on the cheapest return option for them, then the others such as Royal Mail should incur a return fee to deal with the cost. This way, ASC still provides a free option for customers, and takes on the least cost.

On a closing note, this sale has been set-up very intelligently. I was initially planning to buy just one item, but after seeing the £3.50 delivery fee, I went back for more to justify the cost for myself, as £3.50 shipping on a £5 item seems disproportionate to me. It has been set-up to incentivise larger orders. The £2 return fee will also do a very good job of discouraging returns, why would someone return something they spent £5 on if the cost of returning it is 40% of the cost of the item itself?

Fingers crossed next week sees up returning to the 400s again - let's wait and see.

@user555 - I would actually like to ask you how to carry out a DCF.

I have previously tried on many occasions, but get quite confused with the WACC and the so-called discount rate in particular. Perhaps could you provide us with a simple process of how we go about it?

I genuinely mean this, I’m not doing it to spite you in any way. Your help is much appreciated in advance.

Appears I may have gotten some things wrong.

@CWWX - just took another look at the RNS in question and yes, it appears that you are correct. It states that the shares “will be suspended shortly following any decision by the Board to make an application to appoint administrators”, so it appears as though the suspension COULD in fact happen at any time, as the Board could easily go in and say ‘we’re applying now’ and that would be it.

@Hexam - indeed. What I was actually referring to when I mentioned the 8am the following day was actually the delisting process as you state - not the suspension.

Thank you both for the clarification

The dynamic is very interesting here. Usually in cases like these, they warn you that suspension is coming anytime. However with CINE, the warning is different - they are saying that they will only suspend the day after the administrators have been appointed. That means no risk of suspension in the middle of the day, so people can day-trade with confidence knowing they won’t get locked in during the day (to my understanding).

With MCLS, EVE and the vast majority of others, they state that there is a risk of suspension, and then they sent out the RNS at a random moment and that was it. So at least, for the people day-trading this security, they have the knowledge that it won’t get suspended in the middle of the day (if what the RNS says is correct).

That is, however, if you can handle the spread (14.8% at time of print). Always the case with these risky day trades that the MMs need to get their piece too…

All in my opinion.

@maidit - “100% wipe out is only reserve for those CO that is flat broke suspend all operation and have no way of paying there workers / tax or debt???”

The issue is that CINE was actually flat out broke as you describe. If you read point 30 of Docket 19, you’ll see that the deputy CEO confirms that the available cash on hand was $4m as of 09/07/22, the date that CINE filed the petition.

If you check CINE’s latest interim results, you’ll see that the interest expense ALONE was $490.3m for the 6 months, that’s an average of $2.7m per day. At the time of C11 commencement, CINE did not even have money to last them a full 2 days of interest expenses, and this doesn’t even include all the payroll and supplier expenses.

Spot on Cigam - UK equity markets are consistently proving themselves as inadequate in valuing companies. Then people are shocked when American companies come in and scoop up British companies…

You can’t blame them when our stock market looks like Poundland compared to theirs!

Best thing would be for BOO to just draw a line under the tension with REVB and do what they are intent upon doing.

If they want to cut the relationship with the supplier, just do it. If you want to undertake a hostile takeover, then play your hand, and do it. If you want to sell the equity in REVB that you have and take profit, go ahead and do it.

Releasing RNS on a daily basis about your dissatisfaction with operation of REVB does not work wonders for the sp. Seems the Q1 trading update is overdue as well.

Based on previous years, we should expect to have seen the Q1 trading update by now, perhaps BOO have been too consumed by REVB.

Or unless, if BOO has deemed that the small paragraph of an update they gave with the AGM results will suffice?

I was awaiting the result of the court case today, from what I gather, the judge has approved this restructuring agreement and CINE is now allowed to exit C11? And this means that shareholders are now pretty much 100% certain to be wiped out, and Mooky and Co are getting their $35m?

Is that correct?

Cineworld as it stands at the moment has no future, because it is defaulting on its debt obligations, hence the restructuring that is taking place. If you are still a shareholder at this point, then you are holding equity in this CINE which has no future (the way it is planned to go tomorrow).

Many say that it isn’t fair that the business is just going to be handed over, you need to remember that you didn’t only invest in the good side of CINE, you also invested in everything else, including the bad side like debt, risk factors etc.

I agree it isn’t fair, and what especially makes my blood boil is the exit payout for the same person who got us here in the first place. However unfortunately, that is stock market investment. This company had more debt than assets, so when the lenders decided to stop the lifeline, the whole thing folded, and there was no residual value left for shareholders.

Even if C11 was cancelled tomorrow, I would be asking how we would be dealing with the debt, because that problem still remains.

@Reppyrr - just to let you know that even when a company is delisted, LSE usually still keeps the page and chat up and running. You can actually still post a message on Thomas Cook, made.com, McColl’s etc, and in some of these chats, a lot of the LTHs still converse.

@Yuri.F, good morning. My one and only guess is that this restructuring agreement is all ready to go, but has not yet been confirmed.

The RNS talks about the Crown Holdco company to be used to transfer the assets to the lenders, but to my understanding that can only take place once the judge approves the restructuring agreement on the 28th (Wednesday evening).

My guess is that either tomorrow or Wednesday morning, the RNS will emerge that the administrators have been appointed, and they will prepare the company for transfer. Then, if the judge approves the agreement on Wednesday evening, the assets of CINE will immediately transfer to the lenders and that will be it.

However, the reason why they cannot suspend yet is that they need the approval from the judge for the transfer of assets. They cannot transfer anything legally without the go-ahead from the judge. What happens in the off-chance that the judge REJECTS the proposed agreement on Wednesday evening? That would be the one and only saving grace for anyone still in CINE at this time.

However, considering that the same judge rejected the formation of a shareholder’s committee, it is not looking hopeful. It is all already said and done, the judge saying yes on Wednesday is just a formality, but there is a chance somewhere that the judge rejects it.

All in my opinion.

@neil - good morning. I was going to point this out too. This has been the first time that I have seen a company tell shareholders point blank that it is coming at any moment. Usually when it is over for shareholders they suspend on the spot, but in CINE’s case, they are letting it stretch. This stock is now a playground for day traders who are taking a huge risk for themselves, not the sort of stock which is safe to hold overnight because you could wake up with your morning coffee and the RNS will just drop saying everything is frozen in place, and that will be it. Like hot potato now.

Disgusting how it has gotten to this point. If this was just a case of CINE’s debt giving it no flexibility then that is fair, but it is clear it is not. Look at the CEO payout, that is just dirty games there. The way the restructuring has been set up, it transfers everything onto a gold plate for lenders to take, they can thank Mooky and Co for that. No attempt whatsoever to save shareholders, at least from what we’ve seen from the outside.

@Stopcrying - good morning.

You are certainly not the only one in this boat. I have refused to spend a dime at Cineworld, and allowed my Unlimited membership to lapse last year.

They will not see a dime from me, I am prepared to go to Vue, Odeon etc if I would like to go to the cinema. End of Cineworld for me, the manner in which they have treated shareholders has been disgusting, CEO nice and easy sell out for the lenders and left the rest of us high and dry.

So does this mean that the shareholders committee is not essentially done and finished now?

If the judge is saying that he isn’t going to consider it anymore?

Not a clue why the name has changed. NEX/National Express was fantastic to begin with.

As long as the sp rises, I’m not bothered! To be fair, there are many companies with big name recognition that are subsidiaries of larger companies. Think of KFC and Taco Bell, both are owned by Yum Brands, and it works just fine imo.

@JohnNth - the other day someone also suggested that Mooky could re-emerge and buy out the RoW portion of the business.

Wouldn’t be surprised if this has already been arranged with the lenders and they’re just waiting to seal the deal on the 28th. Once C11 is done, Mooky will be a consultant for a while and maybe we’ll then hear that the RoW business has been sold by the lenders to him, with a good chunk of the debt written off.

We have been the ones supporting this company through thick and thin, many of us even doubled down when Cineplex verdict was released, and now we are being thrown into the long grass. He should have done his job, fight for the shareholders to come out with something, and in worst case scenario, you go down with dignity and respect. Sure, you wiped out the shareholders which is bad in itself, but I think we would have all seen him much differently if it was clear he fought for us. Instead he allowed himself to be bought out by the lenders for their own benefit.

Not to worry, whatever goes around comes around in this life. You cannot just wipe out shareholders, run away with your nice payout and expect to run clean like that. Karma will catch up to you eventually.