Personal Opinions - mountainous26 Feb 2023 00:24
Hello all, it’s been a while. I have placed the shares in the bottom drawer and left them there, but I just heard about some huge drop and some news and instantly ran here to check for RNS.
Wow. Those amongst us who were here pre-Jul/Aug 2022 will know that I was almost always one who kept optimistic, but let’s face it that RNS is shambolic. CINE have told us nicely that we should expect absolute zero. Before it was ‘no guarantee’, then ‘unlikely’, and now ‘not expected’.
Anyone with the theory that this is a ploy to get Cineplex to negotiate is wrong imo. We have been saying this for 1 year+ here. Before it was the FY results where CINE gave us the going concern worst case as being unable to pay CPX the bill and that CPX were unsecured, and we were all saying it was a threat to get them in. We said the same in August too. Neither CPX nor creditors care about the equity interests, so if CINE wanted to push CPX like that, they would have worded that RNS much differently.
Anyone also saying that we should wait for box office to improve is also missing the point imo. Creditors want their money and want it asap. From August, we have had 6 months to improve income and unfortunately the box office performance has not proved to be sufficient. Creditors will not keep waiting for the next one, and then the next and so on, they will grab and go, especially now that they have seen there is poor/little interest in anyone purchasing the company.
The RNS touched on the ‘any sale would not be for CINE itself’ point from last time, and now confirmed that they were referring to the equity. So even if they secured a sale of the company, the equity would not be sold for cash, so there would still be zero for us. Even worse than we initially thought. The exemption from the Takeover Code by excluding the equity also means (imo) that CINE is ready and prepared to take any sale without any shareholder approval.
What remains of interest to me is how Mooky emerges from this. Will he also be equally affected and be wiped out and keep to the ‘we’re all in this together’ mindset he gave me in the AGM last year, or is there an escapeway in place for him and his equity interests? I will be quite disappointed if the latter happens.
As for my shareholding, I will likely wait for a decent rise (if it happens) then cash out. How we LTHs emerge better than we entered is completely and totally unknown to me. For me it’s the biggest loss ever. The journey I’ve spent here since mid-2021 has taught me some very good lessons, and we can only rebuild and retry from here.
Peace and blessings to all.