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Interesting things seen on the Cineplex bb on yahoo today, some there have also become cognisant of today’s rise, some rumours of perhaps a settlement being reached between CP and CW.

Even more interesting is how someone brought up the fact that AMC is hiring in Brampton, Canada. AMC has no business at all in Canada unless if they are interested in acquiring Cineplex? Doesn’t make any sense for AMC to start hiring their otherwise…

In addition to that, Mooky informed us that he was in Manhattan during w/c 13th December. Why? With such high levels of COVID within the US at the time, plus the uncertainty surrounding Omicron (again, at the time) and Mooky’s age, I can’t see Mooky going there just to see how the business is doing, he must have been there for an important reason…

Good afternoon all, today’s rise is phenomenal indeed!

A day of celebration for all genuine CINE holders today, an imaginary toast to Mooky and Co. We all held through such a dark period with a 40% drop, now we are being rewarded fruitfully for it. Just a matter of time until we retrace to 50,60,70 etc. Once appeal is announced it will likely ease fears as well and yield a further increase in the sp.

The sky looks bright and clear, let’s sit back and enjoy the green! Shorters appear to have quickly made an exit, perhaps Truant is negotiating with his broker to avoid his account being wiped out from a margin call. A big well done for shorting at 30p :)

Hello Deano, good question.

CINE has a large beta, and that can be easily seen in how volatile it is. Such stocks make good opportunities for day/swing traders. Day traders open their positions at the start of the day and trade throughout the session. It is usually in their best interests to not leave their positions open overnight due to the fact that many brokers charge overnight fees for CFD and other such accounts that day traders use, so by the end of the day they will usually close their positions, hence why we always see a pullback towards the end of the session. This especially happens on green days like today, so day traders can bank their final profits and start afresh tomorrow.

That’s my educated guess anyways, hope this helps :)

Was just having a glance on this board throughout the day today, lots of interesting discussions and the usual very high quality of posting from the likes of RS and etc. The 12%+ rise in CNNWF is quite something, let’s see what CINE holds for us tomorrow.

Good luck to all LTH’s for tomorrow, sure has been a bit boring not seeing CINE’s bouncing behaviour for a while lol

No worries BlueBuxton :)

Good evening and spot on RS. They will all crawl into the woodwork when this starts rising again.

I have giantsquid filtered, but it’s fairly clear by the replies to this thread that he has started this one.

I will match LTHcine’s donation of 1 CINE share. As a matter of fact, I will double it to a whopping 2 CINE shares if you promise us to take your shenanigans elsewhere and leave us to enjoy our fantastic film line-up that is now on the way.

If we don’t see any increases in the sp this month or next month then March will likely be the time it happens. With cash flow confirmed as positive for October with just Bond, it is effectively an open secret the December will be heavily cash flow positive as well. I would not be surprised to see a slow increase in the sp until March in anticipation for the full year results.

Hello Wellington, thanks for the clarification, let’s hope that it’s the latter :)

Hello BlueBuxton, we are still many years away from that point (if it even comes to that). I expect CINE to be able to retain earnings to pay off the debt. If they fall short I think it is only reasonable for the lenders to give us an extra 2-3 years. They were able to waive covenants, so it appears that they’re flexible. Considering that we were a heavily leveraged company even pre-pandemic, the fact we have made it out in a solvent manner should be more than enough to prove to lenders that this company is a resilient one.

Hello Wellington, thanks for your comment there. Just out of interest, why couldn’t Cineworld do an equity-for-debt swap instead of a debt-for equity swap? Considering the fact that the majority of Cineworld’s lenders are institutional, it wouldn’t be a massive task for Cineworld to do so.

In the case of an equity-for-debt swap, shareholders would swap their shares for a portion of Cineworld’s debt, usually in the form of a bond. Once Cineworld is in a better position to pay it back, shareholders will get back the value of their investments. Also taking into account that Mooky is the largest Cineworld shareholder in existence it is probably in his best interests to not dilute the living cr*p out of the equity he holds and to instead offer shareholders a chance to swap their equity that way. Cineworld could also make it a bit more palatable by offering a swap ratio higher than 1:1, and I think they would scoop up a lot of investors willing to swap equity for debt; it could potentially mean that shareholders come out with more money at the end. Everyone wins that way, shareholders aren’t totally wiped out from a financial standpoint and Cineworld gets the money they need to help prevent them from defaulting on any debt repayment that may be due. Unless if I’m missing something?

truant - now safely in the filter. Thanks for stopping by for New Years.

Likewise to you capehake, as well as all the genuine LTH’s present on this board :)

@reppyr if worse comes to worse I can see cineworld perhaps doing an equity issuance of some sort to help pay off some of the debt. I’ve suggested this before, but I think it’s something that will happen much later down the line if it is needed (considering no further changes to COVID). If you’re an LTH now, it shouldn’t concern you imo because by the time they do it the sp would have already risen quite well.

@cekim - agreed. I suggested a few weeks back that if he doesn’t say anything by 1st January perhaps it’s time to start writing to him…

@chilston - I’m more inclined to believe that whatever option is taken will be in the best interests of shareholders, considering the fact that Mooky is the biggest one.

The debt will be taken care of imo, Mooky actually told us a few months ago by a media interview that the debt is still manageable.

@yuri.f, if profits are getting consumed by expenses then indeed it is a dangerous position in terms of the company’s ability to deleverage itself, but that’s not happening with CINE.

October was a profitable month for CINE. Full stop. That puts to rest your thesis that CINE’s profits are getting eaten up. For October, a month where we had a blockbuster that was big in just the UK (Bond isn’t a massive hit in the US), CINE paid every single expense it had to (including interest) and still had a bit left over, hence why they were profitable. That little excess will get put in the bank and over the next few years we will accumulate a sufficient amount to pay off the debts when due. Remember that the vast majority of the debts are due in 2025. All imo.

Good morning @funinvestor, thanks for your additions.
CINE stated 90% for Oct, not 80%, which puts its 10% above the figure stated on Box Office Mojo. It also stated September at 60%, not 54%.

@hellblader, taking a look at cineworld’s 2019 revenue, we get an average of $364.1m/month. I stress the word AVERAGE because as we know the financial performance can vary depending on the film product.

January-May = cinemas closed worldwide
June = No data
July = 50% of 2019 revenue = $182.05m
August = 54% of 2019 revenue = $196.61m
September = 60% of 2019 revenue = $218.46m
October = 90% of 2019 revenue = $327.69m
November = No data but going by Mooky’s comment of it being ‘very good’ and Eternals, Ghostbusters and Encanto appearing to have done decent, I am making a ball park figure of 85% of 2019 revenue = $309.49m
December = this must almost certainly be over 2019 revenue, I am making a guess of 110% of average 2019 revenue = $400.51m

Adding together, we get about $1.63bn for 2021. Very much a finger in the air with some of my estimations, so take it with a pinch of salt. $2.5bn doesn’t seem extremely likely, and it would account for about half of 2019 revenue despite us being closed for half of the year and not yet returning to a fully working box office. Positive adjusted EBITDA and my neighbourhood will hear me shouting it from my rooftop if it happens.

Nevertheless, I’m quite sure that CINE has had a decent year for what we had. Definitely some profitable months (and likely the entirety of Q4) which I’m sure Mooky will bash at during his review in March. Personally, I think if we don’t see the sp making any upward movement in Q1 2022, then it will be the results in March that really get the ball rolling. Just a few more months to wait XD

All imo and hope this helps.

Thank you for the clarifications FunInvestor and Cruis :)

Hello Cruis1, how have you come to the conclusion that The King’s Man has underperformed at the box office? It’s only been out for 2 days. It looked interesting to me and I intend to watch it in a few days hopefully. If not, perhaps in the new year.