Member Info for mountainous

Please could you explain further on what happened with HUR?

You should probably inquire further about that.

@Danosaur, that does seem a bit off. I don’t think they would have included it in the T&C’s if it was against the law.

@betahighalpha, in a nutshell we just have to play the waiting game.

I’m sure you’ll know about the result of the original court case and how CINE have filed an appeal. My understanding is that the appeal has already started, but we don’t get to see any of it, it is all internal.

As a result, we don’t really know much else. The result will likely arrive in the form of an RNS after the market closes in both Canada and the UK, so most likely will come out in the morning like it did the first time around.

The result will become obvious ahead of time if we see some suspicious or unexplained large movement in the share price or many new short positions opening. The last time K2 opened a short just a few days before the result was announced.

All the best, hopefully we get a settlement or a positive result in the appeal.

That is correct lsesb, I think they’re not allowed to lend out ISA shares by law.

That would be an interesting find Bonkers, I am seeing about 28,000 investors. Indeed you are correct that the amount those 28,000 people hold varies massively from person-to-person.

@Bonkers, the percentage is the same for everyone IIRC. I believe your presumption is correct.

Trading 212 holds everyone’s shares in a big pot essentially, so that means that 60% of all of those shares have been lent out.

That is my understanding of it.

Just had a look at Cineworld’s website for bookings for Dr Strange, my local 4DX is already at about 60-70% occupancy.

Took a look at Leicester Square, good luck getting a decent seat for 4DX. The tickets were even going for £26 apiece, massively increased from what they were for Spider-Man from my recollection.

For those amongst us who are worried about US performance, I’d encourage you to go and look at Regal’s website and do some practice bookings. I picked a random cinema in New York for IMAX on opening night and the whole screen was nearly filled, only some seats at the front were left. Nice reminder that there are a lot of people who also decide to book on the day in person.

I also took a peek at AMC’s website and they show you what the occupancy is before you actually go to book. Many were saying ‘almost full’, I checked random ones in both New York and Florida. The story is very much the same as it is in the UK, only a few seats at the front remaining.

Certainly appears to be in extremely high demand, I think this will be just like Spider-Man. Positive cash flow in May is a large possibility imo.

Morrisons would not get it for nothing in the event of a liquidation. Even if the shops went to bond holders, what makes you think that they will sell it off for cheap when they have lost a lot of the money that they have borrowed to MCLS? Especially if there is high demand.

LSE back open and running tomorrow.

End of last week was great, let’s see if CINE can keep up the momentum :)

Cinemark operates in many different countries, and they actually segmented the revenue from different regions they operate in the last earnings report, so we should be able to get a decent idea how the US is performing from there, as well as a small glimpse into how concessions may be doing.

If Morrisons buys the company out now, they guarantee themselves the real estate.

If Morrisons decides to wait for MCLS to go bust, nothing is guaranteed. For all we know, there could be a lot of companies waiting in the background for MCLS to fold so they can dash in and scoop up MCLS real estate, MCLS is not a small company.

There could be rapacious demand for the real estate if MCLS goes into administration, so companies could find themselves paying more than they would now if the administrators push the price of the real estate up during liquidation due to excess demand.

This is part of the reason why I feel like a takeover is still on the cards. The company itself is great for any company that wants to utilise the convenience model. For instance, Morrisons with Morrisons Daily, Amazon with Amazon Fresh, Sainsbury’s with Sainsbury’s local etc etc.

£292m in MCLS net debt, Amazon made circa £292m in profit every 3 days in 2021. Morrisons made £431m in profit in 2021 and had about £3bn in debt, so it’s not an insufferable amount of debt. The amount of potential gain from utilising MCLS real estate could make an acquisition well worth it.

All imo.

@neilllmcmc11, my portfolio is certainly quite CINE-heavy, but not to the extent that it would blow my account to pieces if they went bust. Definitely not 99%, I can guarantee you that :)

@FunInvestor, I don’t understand what all of the combative language and capital letters is all about.

CINE uses box office admissions in the base case likely because it is the only reliable metric that they can draw predictions from. Other revenue such as concessionary income has no clear pattern, it is likely the case that it doesn’t remain stable across the whole year as we saw in 2021, where we had a nice mid-year surprise which Mooky spoke a lot about.

Therefore, how can you expect CINE to include variables in the base case which fluctuate significantly during the year? CINE have likely come up with a very brief estimation for concessions and calculated it into the base case, but as we know the performance of the cinema industry varies significantly, so there will be surprises here and there. Now with a cost of living crisis coming in, CINE is well poised to benefit, as it is a form of low-cost entertainment for all, so box office and especially concessions could perform much better.

That is how it is, no matter how many capital letters you use. All imo.

Mine is purely a punt, MCLS is 0.9% of my portfolio.

I do still feel like a takeover could very well occur, of course you never know, it may never materialise.

I’m here because this hit 5p in a matter of days, I’m waiting to see if that happens again (or some other fantastic rise). If it does, I’ll bank a good little profit, if it doesn’t, then it is what it is. I already set myself an absolute maximum of shares that I will buy, this share is pure chance at this moment in time.

Reality of the matter is that it’s not just about the box office. 53% of total revenue came from Box Office, the other 47% came from other things such as concessions and advertising. It is too large to just omit like that, it’s not like CINE takes all the money from other sources that isn’t the box office and just throws it into the fire to help heat the cinema.

Metom also being clairvoyant and already stating tomorrow’s price movement.

I think I need to start filling up the filter again…

@StanleyPro, very nice to see you, congrats on your top up.

@BouncyDeadCat thank you very much for your input.

I think the court only determines whether Cineplex is entitled to the money or not.

The payment plan and the way it is paid to Cineplex is a matter for Cineworld and Cineplex to discuss amongst themselves. Cineworld could very easily say ‘ok we will pay but it will take 10 years’ or something like that, what can Cineplex do? Unlike our debts to the bank which have maturity dates and interest payments, our debt to Cineplex has no conditions whatsoever (that is my understanding of it).