Member Info for Morningsun

I wouldn't hold my breath Carrefour. Why expect different results when everything seems to be going in the exact same fashion as before. Just look at the last two RNS'es. Promises by AP and then 'Smack' 'bang' a placing right on top of it the next day. All fully known and planned. Rinse and repeat.

This will only change when there is a change in management I'm convinced of, regardless of the hype that seems to be blowing over from the telegram app or whatever it's called. The posts from over there are just smoke and mirrors. Read the recaps in detail and you'll see there is again only promises, nothing real. BP in 3 months, yeah right! We've never seen any plan whatsoever and suddenly it's gone from 6 months to production to 3 months.

I'm afraid no investor in their right mind (i.e. non death spiral) would give money to a CEO (or BoD) with such a track record, regardless of the assets. Think about it, would you give your money to them knowing what has happened over the past 6 months?? Until the BoD realise that they are the actual problem, they will (have to) come back here for more money to keep the lights on.

MS

TomE, that is why I wrote my post like that. Seems to me there is a strategy to the madness.

Maybe it's just that Firetower is shallow and they only have to drill 2000m which is quick and dirty and they expect to prove something soon giving additional value for a quick sale.

Maybe it's designed for maximum impact as I cannot see GGP sitting on their hands with the rest of the plots and hence we are to expect more RNS'es about the other plots.

MS

So GGP have decided to go for firetower first instead of BH and scallywag. There is a surprise.

Thought they would want to prove up adjacent plots to HV first. Unless I'm too quick and there is a strategy to the madness...

More plans to follow? Negotiating with Rio about joint work on cross border plots?

Anyway, glad to see some news and again a mid morning Tuesday RNS.

MS

Thanks Tiburn. I guess that was an attempt to answer my question on SNPC.
MS

Was doing some research on SNPC website after reading here that SNPC was struggling to pay the development cost incurred by AAOG. I though it odd that a company with so many part-taking in the other fields around the area as stated on here several times would not be flush with cash as the fields around us are reportedly producing massive amounts of oil.

I did not find any statement on P&L of SNPC yet. Does anyone have a link to such please?

MS

TT, it would be a dream to be able to produce from the djeno to start off with.
However, it would also be great to just produce oil and generate cashflow.

If they are sure they can do djeno from 103 then great. If unsure, produce from the other fields first to make the company!

MS

Skittish, ref something is going on down there otherwise it would not have flowed.

One of the regulars here explained recently that this happens regularly. Just a matter of putting more concrete down on top of the old cap. Nothing special he stated.

MS

Well, from what I can see it seems fairly balanced today with buys and sell.

SB said yesterday that he could not imagine any of the 90 million holders would be forwarded selling at these levels.

Makes sense to me.

Seems more like someone said yesterday, need of funds is reason for selling.

GLA
MS

Tiburn, thanks for compelling posts last night.

As for sharing results on scallywag, I would be surprised if GGP would not share the results of their find with other interested majors. In the end, NC only have a right of first refusal. The info we have says nothing about priming the market with details.
If NC were clever they would have restricted this but it wouldn't have been clever for GGP to accept that. In the end, they need to have us shareholders in mind and hence drive the price for the targets up as much as possible and that means 'auction'.

GLA
MS

Well, AP is at the very least consistent. He keeps saying it's all great and so on and then keeps hitting share holders in the nuts with placings and delays.

In any normal business he would have been out. In the end, the buck stops with him. He is the CEO and he approved yesterday's RNS knowing the placing was coming today.

Anyone that bought into the story yesterday should want his b@ll@cks on the block. He can't be trusted. What a disgrace.

MS

Thanks for dropping in SB.
I'm off to the beach as well.
MS

can now focus their full attention on getting aaog into production and hence in profit. Too much at stake here.

Mind, it was by their own decisions that they did not join the Rose board after all. Why we don't know as the RNS doesn't clarify but it may be that others could provide more.

Anyway, glad we have their full attention again as we have a lot to achieve here this month.

GLA
MS

As with all treasure Skittish, 'X' marks the spot!
Good work! Thanks.
MS

That's all good Skittish. The point I was trying to get across was that if he indeed meant march commencement, which could very well be, it doesn't mean money arrives in march as some on here seem to be expecting. It only means that from march they agree to pay but (especially the first) payment may be delayed do to late agreement.

Money is coming in and that is signed for, which is good and enforceable.

GLA
MS

Skittish, that is a very decent response to a very decent approach that BC gave.

One thing that may skew your view. You are counting on DS doing the 'right thing' and not being greedy. Well, that is an assumption to make (on AIM)!

Unfortunately there are sufficient cases on AIM where the BoD DID go for the big prize instead of going for the sensible approach of first making the company profitable (103 in production) and then for the big money(Djeno oil). But is that all wrong?

As it is we just don't know, again.

Will it make a difference what they do first? Not so sure as you and BC both have a reasonable case. Going for the Djeno now will delay money coming in BUT will get much higher revenues to us quicker IF it all works out as expected. However, I think it may also compromise our negotiating position with SNPC about the share they have. Just for the sake of holding out and not playing ball keeping a higher share. Maybe.

Going for the 103 in production now (although the sensible option) may, due to market expectations about Djeno, not give the SP rise we all hope for. In the end, AIM seems to trade on sentiment, not on facts.

Getting a major on board covers all the bases, apart from the negotiations with SNPC I think, but that seems to be a timing issue.

Not having equipment on site while it's the 9th of April could mean a lot.. but what!?

Lots to consider...

GLA
MS

This is the relevant section of the RNS of 29 March:

"Following the Company's announcement of 18 February 2019, SNPC has agreed to pay monthly instalments, commencing this month, of US$600,000. These payments will be applied in settlement of monies owed by SNPC to the Company. Before any payment this month, the sum owed amounts to approximately US$9.5m and mostly relates to SNPC's share of the costs of drilling TLP-103C. SNPC has undertaken to send the Company a signed payment schedule confirming the payment plan. "

Now it does state 'this month' but that was on Friday the 29th at 13.30 and it stated 'commencing'. It also states that SNPC has undertaken to send a signed schedule confirming the payments..

Whether it was meant to read Match or April and when payments are to be made, i.e. with immediate effect or with a time delay of i.e. 30 days we don't know as the narrative doesn't clarify. However, the company now has a signed agreement to make the payments with the schedule attached to it.

Money is incoming and that is good news. With the request for opening of negotiations it is clear SNPC want to stay involved.

Now all we need is to have the drilling equipment on site. Come on Schlumberger, only 21 days left in April to get the oil flowing...

GLA
MS

Went through the latest RNS again to check on the quality of oil found.

Oil classification:
Light – API > 31.1
Medium – API between 22.3 and 31.1
Heavy – API < 22.3
Extra Heavy – API < 10.0

Following the above classification, what we have is API 43, which is light crude.
See link: http://www.petroleum.co.uk/api

Now is that good or bad?

Light crude oil receives a higher price than heavy crude oil on commodity markets because it produces a higher percentage of gasoline and diesel fuel when converted into products by an oil refinery. Heavy crude oil has more negative impact on the environment than its light counterpart since its refinement requires the use of more advanced techniques an the use of contaminants.

Generally speaking, oil with an API gravity between 40 and 45° commands the highest prices. Above 45°, the molecular chains become shorter and less valuable to refineries, according to the Louisiana department of natural resources.

See link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API_gravity

In short, we should be happy that the API is 43. Seems like the sweetspot for weight.

GLA
MS

It is hard to find some decent posts here today in between all the infighting. One might be mistake for thinking the SP is going down instead of up just reading this BB today....
Cheer up and enjoy the ride, or not in which case ride off into the sunset LOL
MS
GLA

So only 24 hours then?
MS

Thanks TomE.
Not frustrated. Just want them to get on with it, whether they announce or not ;-)
GLA
MS