Member Info for Morningsun

Have gone through the history of the last year as new to this share.

Seems that a year ago, when the SP was at 160, the rot started after the 25th May RNS output downgrade due to continuous low grades in the transition zone of the open pit mine.. Dropped all the way to 90 on Sept 10 2018 before SP climbed back up to a high of 130 on the 18th/25th of Feb 2019 then dropped again to the lows of last week.

Can't really see a reason for the next drop though apart from 'neither here nor there' results in Feb but that seemed expected as well. Maybe not so much then?

However, if results are good now (Q1 RNS) and the result for the year may actually end up on the high end of the range, is there any reason for the SP not going back to teh 160 again swiftly? Or is that pie in the sky?

Thanks for your views.

MS

And so would I. However, DS said in the interview he would not move before license and he had not even seen the commercial terms of the new license yet and expected them to be 'horrendous' and needing negotiating. Couple of months were his words. Same for SNPC negotiations.

All great news about Djeno oil but I just don't believe that he has another choice than to wait for the license and SNPC deal before moving things forward as per his own words. Hence my comment on having to wait another couple of months before fireworks.

I can wait. Future is bright.

MS

Then in short Tiptop that means another couple of month's waiting as per my earlier post on the DS interview.
MS

How does that work then Barking

If we indeed produce 55bopd from TLP101 (as per 3rd Jan 2019 RNS) then usd10/bbl increase and 238mln shares in the market relates to 0.083p on an annual basis revenue. We are at 10.6p currently.

Which oil price are you referring to in your 10p to 13p remark as that 3p rise is 37.5 times the increase referred to above in the USD10/bbl rise. That seems to me a quite steep multiple, even for a golden goose like AAOG.

Thanks
MS

sardy, That is why I said 'ROC AND DS'... Both must see the Dollar signs I trust.

Well if there is ever a time to increase oil production, particularly if it doesn't have to go through the straight of Hormuz, it is now.

Put your finger out ROC and DS and start production of oil from the Djeno.

GLA
MS

So on 3rd January we've been RNSed that studies indicate that if 102 is used as a water injector then 101 could produce up to 400 bopd.
Currently 101 has (at the time of writing the RNS) been running at 55 bopd for the previous 2 weeks. So, to points,

1. Tlp 101 running at 55 bopd is already USD 1.4 mln per year. Not bad. The possible 400 bopd is USD 10.4 mln per year. That is nearly a third of our market cap...

2. If we were to get quotes on this improvement of USD 9 Mln per year, as indicated in the RNS, why have we not moved on it yet?

GLA
MS

Then, if that is your expectation Dsmith you should sell today while there is still some value on the SP. I'm convinced you've got it quite wrong so holding and adding when I can.
MS

JH, it should not be a concern as it is clear. DS has stated that AAOG won't move forward without a license. So, if the license is still some time away he should not be fracking or drilling. He can't but wait.

Moreover, he is right too form a negotiating strategy perspective as the moment he starts doing works and spending more he has lost the negotiations on the license AND with SNPC. So you should be happy that he is not moving forward.

Don't forget, with SNPC he has told us too what his aim is, 30%. He states that 'you can't buy 30% of this field for 10 million'. I take that as the target of the SNPC negotiations as that is exactly what AAOG is looking for, 30% for (under) 10 million.

MS

JH, he needs to say it because the market seems to expect the license imminently. That is clearly not the case as AAOG have not even seen the commercial terms yet, regardless of whether it is earmarked as granted as stated. He seems to be telling us to be patient as have to negotiate first.

Same as the SNPC deal, several months away he clearly tells us.

Same as the djeno oil from 103. if djeno oil from there it will take time. we may know soon if possible but it will take time.

Great potential here but it's Oil exploration and production and that is never quick, especially where we are.

Be patient he seems to be shouting, but it seems few are willing to listen.

MS

JH, that is a classic negative sentiment play you just did there and with so many posts behind your name you should know better. Of course the initial terms will be 'horrendous' as DS calls it. They always will be as parties will try it on , especially a government in Africa. And why shouldn't they.

That is where negotiating will come in. I read his comments as just realistic instead of sentiment play you just did there.

MS

PG, maybe it's just as simple that there is value in the ground and they know they can sell a bigger block for more then a smaller block. Simple economics.

Sometimes things are less complicated than we think.
MS

Great that you can tickle yourself like that billb. Good for you. Just ignore the last two RNS'es and how they were sequenced and your all fine!
MS

License, not 'lunch cense'. Fatfingers...

Sounds to me that DS is expecting the license to take a while yet to conclude from now as he hasn't seen the first draft commercial terms of it yet and he explains expects them to be horrendous initially before negotiating.
Does that mean we will not produce for another few months as he also stated that we won't be moving forward without it.

Snpc deal seems to be expected to take some months as well as DS states that in reference to the payments now versus a deal with equity in a few months time.

Also, sounds to me like we may very well be producing from 103 now IF technically possible. We weren't expecting to be able to do it because of the mud in 103 to stabilise it. But it obviously flows.

All in all, CPR should be soon, then expect some silence for a few weeks before lunch cense and then SNPC deal.

That is how I read the interview.

MS

And there you go... Does DS not know what his own RNS states about the oil to surface?

"TLP-103C - Analysis of oil at surface

The Well targeted several horizons, including the Djeno, a prolific producer on neighbouring licences. Having encountered oil shows in all target horizons and additional areas, drilling operations at TLP-103C were completed on 26 January 2019.

After leaving TLP-103C to stabilise for a period of 45 days, the Well was opened to release pressure which was building in the tubing. On opening the Well, oil was produced. A sample of this oil was collected and sent to the Congolese state refinery for testing. The results of this test confirm that the oil collected has an API of 43 and that the source of the oil is the Djeno reservoir."

MS

DS states 36 API oil from the djeno. Sure the RNS said 43API...
Which one is it?
MS

WA, SNPC playing ball is very good news. That second payment indicates they (and their backers) are serious about this and want to stay in as much as they can.

Excellent news.

MS

85-15 percentage...

Sd, I think you're missing the key elements here. There are already precedents to the *%-15 division and I read yesterday that the ROC gov needs every penny they can get from the oil stream they can get hence its better for them to have 15% of something producing then 44 percent of something doing nothing.

And don't forget we have been told via RNS that SNPC have asked our BoD to come back to the negotiating table to negotiate the SNPC share in relation to the payments to be made. They would only request that when they want to get rid of the 9.5million they have to pay in 18 instalments. This again rings true with Tiburns post yesterday about the shortage of cash in ROC. Better to lose shares then to pay out money you don't have.

MS