Member Info for Morningsun

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52478783
MS

TomV, I trust you mean 'in the absence of a vaccine' and not 'in the absence of a virus'.
MS

Trouble, not worth the energy. Just another one of those instant experts. A member since 14th April and already telling everyone else they've got it wrong.
Of course.
MS

Look at the Bloomberg TV announcement. 500,000 tests per day for the US. That is 16 million per month..
It doesn't say which test of course.
MS

Just announced that the USA will be performing 500,000 tests per day in order to get out of quarantine.
MS

Sarahlamb. you've got to be kidding comparing this outfit with GGP. What a load of nonsense. If you don't understand the value of the JV GGP have with Newcrest, one of the biggest gold companies in the world picking up all the cost of development, and that this JV is for a project in Australia, one of the safest countries in the world, then you really have missed the point. Vast could only wish they were in a similar position.
Try compare Gervaise Heddle to Andrew Prelea. See if you can find any (!) point where AP stands up to comparison.

I really hope this comes good here but let's not start talking nonsense.

MS

The key though Dexter is that I wrote 'based on this contract alone'. There are many more and mind you, this isn't going away just yet. The virus is still spreading and we have to find a way of getting back to work again. Testing is the only way until we have a vaccine. That is some way off and then still, we need testing.
MS

This 7mln tests ordered at GBP 10 per test is worth GBP 80mln over 6 months.
As per pharma expectations a 50% profit margin is not out of the ordinary. So be safe and use 30% margin.
That gives us GBP 24mln.
If you look at big pharma multiples, and we are strongly connected to them, a p/e multiple of 26x is appropriate.
So lets use 20 times, again to be safe.

20x GBP 24mln is GBP 480mln. Divide that by our 68mln shares it gives us a contract value of GBP 7 per share on this contract alone...

Now I'm sure some will have better methods of calculating the value of this contract per share but I am sure you get the direction this is going to go in.

MS

with department of health UK.
https://novacyt.com/2020/04/27/contract-with-uk-department-of-health-and-social-care-for-supply-of-covid-19-tests/
Have a great day
MS

The only thing I see differently though MB is that I cannot see NCYT making only a 10% profit margin on the tests. That is definitely NOT pharma.
So, at 8 mln tests per month at gbp 8 per test or gbp960mln per year I see a higher annual earnings.
MS

Interestingly MB that is the exact approach I had been taking. Did some research on pharma valuations. Looks like 20 times earnings is very reasonable here under normal circumstances. Big pharma gets up to 26x...

But these are not normal circumstances. Small company with very big partners in a confined market space with, as it seems, one of the few properly working products and scared governments. Pressure cooker springs to mind.
MS

That is a good find Simon. Thanks.
MS

VanV, having read your Preston email post yet again, as I failed to understand why Preston wasn't seeing the light that we are all seeing I think you have left a crucial part of Sandman's (right name?) research out.
The part where he states that the Primerdesign test kits have 96 tests in them and TF recently changed their MO from 100 tests per run to 96.
That might trigger his light bulb.
Thanks for the work!
Best
MS

Q18, this has indeed been announced by scientists before. They found 10 different strains of the original COVID-19 virus but they had changed very little from the original. Very unlike the common flue which keeps changing very actively.
Good news to keep using this NCYT test.
MS

Mick, come on. You are on this BB and own shares here (I presume) and you don't know who Primerdesign is?
Really?
MS

This morning on Bloomberg TV the Former national Economic council director Gary Cohn is very clear.:
In order to get the economy to reopen and people to re-engage we are going to need more testing for longer to make sure we are in top of any new outbreak.

Message is clear. Massive amounts of tests are required. This can only go one way.

MS

Good grieves Castaway, after all these years you still come up with this 'AP delivered' carp? All the hype that came with BP license in the day ( and I do mean in the day as it's a long time ago) was created by the one and only AP. The constant blatant 'truth contortions' about equipment being ordered (million for the trucks... that never came), fundraises for whatever jollies to ZIM and the promises of 'no more placings at this level' (followed by placings at lower levels) not to speak of the Q&A sessions that were always full of promise but never followed by any delivery.

As GK47 says, we were at 0.6 in the day and he took it all the way to 0.11. Very, very close to the point that they could not raise anymore. All AP's work. But, of course, in the mean time nothing ever touched his holdings in BP. Why oh why.

And yes, it bounched to 0.5 or so on whatever fluke that was. However, we are back where we were before and have really always been. Promises promises. When will he deliver. Containers form China, I hope they don't park them next to the trucks...because you'll never see them again.

Anyway, if this comes good it is by no means due to AP delivering anything, and I really do hope things will come good here. God knows we've all put enough money into this dark hole over the years.

Maybe I've been here too long and I do have a memory that doesn't suite AP believers. But I see nothing different than we got fed several years ago. And that's not good.

MS

Clearly people have not understood what it takes to get a new medicine or medical equipment approved. It takes a long time. That process will and has to be cut short surely but still, it will take months rather than weeks.

All the while this NCYT product will be used throughout the world making us nice prifits.
MS

consistently getting NT even on small amounts.
MS

Wood, and that is the exact point that people seem to be missing when they are selling, we have a proven product, not the first step to a potential product! However, people are still selling and it is driving the price down substantially.
At some stage reason will prevail and this will go up again.
There are still only two WHO approved providers of Covid-19 tests...
MS