Member Info for Monkshood

They had a large low hedge in A$ in the last quarter which is why the realised price was only $1446.
Originally they had about 30% hedged at around $1500 for this quarter, they then added to this prior to the last quarter results - so they now have approx 60% hedged.
They have to have at least 30% hedged (for, I think 12 months?) for the banking covenants, they then increase this to about 60% on a rolling basis in the next quarter or two.
Details of the current hedging below.

Quarter- price- amount
September 2020 1,625 60,000
December 2020 1,647 60,000
March 2021 1,576 30,000
June 2021 1,577 30,000
September 2021 1,667 18,000
December 2021 1,670 15,000

I made that mistake as well....Many of the building sites around me seemed to work all the way through (although at a reduced pace) and have been flat out more recently. I also thought that they would benefit from low energy prices without thinking it through that they would fully hedge this (which was a bit daft really as I realised this would be an issue for other companies such as nex).
They did say at the very end of the Q&A that things were picking up further at the end of the month/ start of August so their forecast may turn out to be conservative. I would however rather they adopt this approach and surprise to the upside than the converse.

In the Q &A, going forward they are talking about production possibly 10-20% below 2019 for the next year - Although not directly comparable, looking at past share prices cica 200p would seem a reasonable target.

Seems to be picking up into the results next week. I doubt the results will look pretty but it just needs to get through this year without running up too much debt.
Along with First Group withdrawing, lot of small operators are struggling in the US so there should be some good opportunities for nex to gain market share.

I was talking with someone at the w/e who works in a private hospital which has been contracted to the NHS since the start of lockdown. Whilst they were very quite for much of the time they are now starting to get very busy carrying out elective surgery etc. Tristel's core market should come back quite strongly if this is typical, plus they should also be doing well with the more covid specific surface disinfectants as well.
Have they launched their products with Byot yet? I sold my Byot holding (and Reat) this morning and moved it to RTO/Trist which seems to have been unusually good timing for me!

Well that dip was a nice opportunity to load up on these again. Happy to hold for the long term now that there is a bit more clarity about revenue.

I got this one wrong(ish). I had been reducing since it went over 500 as it essentially, seemed to be costing in no impact from covid. The results were OK but I had still expected a fall back to nearer 500 rather than an increase - hey, ho .
I will rebuild in this again over time.

I think that it was (still is?) on of the more leveraged of the builders. Although the placing initially reduced debt they are still looking to spend on the rcf going forward. Their 'aim of returning to net cash at year end from September 2023' will mean that there is less scope for divi's than with some of the more cash rich builders.
I topped up under the placing price but have reached my limit for this stock now. The shift to manufacturing and the balance between the different business models will, I think (hope), pay off over time .

I am fairly new to this company. I liked its conservative approach, supported by good management. The shift away from insurance to reoccurring revenues from fleet offers steady long term potential. I thought that was a good performance given the lockdown.
It looks like there is plenty of scope for international growth going forward as well.

We have discussed this awhile ago, if you look back. it is almost certain to be sold. They sold Ravenswood and carried out a placing to get debt down so I cannot see them increasing it again just yet.
They will need money to convert the oxide circuit for sulphides and to start on the underground mine at Taborkoroni to replace the oxide mining which is tailing off.
Still they said in the last Q & A that their financial plans involve amortising the debt at 25m pa. so they should have plenty of headroom with this.

Or, perhaps 144 was the bottom... dyor ;0)

Good point about the dilution - I had forgotten about that.
It is why these boards can be useful is used constructively .....

I think that you may be a bit disappointed if that is what you are basing things on.
Next quarter-
60,000 @$1625 (hedged), 45,000(?) @ $1900(?) ASIC is around $1000oz so around $73.5M - they have paid $17 m in tax in July to Mali, plus there will probably $5-$10 in costs (not in ASIC ) for exploration etc.
If they reduce net debt by $50m next quarter it will be a good result.

These go into treasury - not for cancelation. They purchase them, then sell them to II's at a later date to increase liquidity. I am not sure how much shareholder value is accrued this way - I assume that there must be some but not to the extent that you get when the shares are cancelled.

They are not producing there at the moment so selling will have no impact on current production but would reduce debt.
Developing the mine could potentially increase future production by approx 100k/oz pa with a 10 year LOM but will increase debt to commission the mine.

Your wish has been granted - NCYT are releasing a saliva based rt-PCR test.

Three, Mako in Senegal, Bibiani in Ghana and Syama in Mali. Production is from Mako and Syama. They are currently looking at what to do with Bibiani- whether to develop, or sell the mine.
Syama will almost certainly be extended by developing an underground mine at Tabakoroni which will feed the current oxide processing plant after it has been modified for sulphides.
They are doing drilling to look to extend the LOM at both producing sites
I believe that they have holdings in three listed exploration companies (Dimi follows this more closely so may be he provide more details about these? )
They sold Ravenswood in Australia earlier this year and retain some financial interests in future production.

That saliva is OK for PCR! If you can detect sars cov2 by MS then you can do it by PCR. I think that early on nasopharyngeal swabs were thought to be the best (and may still be if carried out properly) but as time has gone on there has been a realisation that saliva is at least as good in many cases. They use saliva for RT-LAMPS and I think that it will become more routine for the standard rt-PCR over time.
You can use nasopharyngeal swabs for BAMS in the same way that you can use saliva for PCR - they are just sampling methods.
A further comparison from the EU below- but there are lots of examples if you search
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence/diagnostic-testing

So just use saliva for PCR....
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067835v1

In the UK - The results just out for Stagecoach were not too bad for the buses (the real issue for them was UK trains) .There is a good chance that the UK will extend the COVID-19 Bus Service Support Grant (CBSSG) /Restart programme until next year although some Councils/Cities are pushing for future payment to be made via local councils, rather than directly to the companies, as is the case now. There may be a case for this, but I think it is as much about control of transport by councils rather than supporting the bus companies.

Spain/Morocco- March rns ‘Taken together this means that 40% of ALSA's revenue is protected from demand volatility.’ The Spanish contract will be extended in duration as compensation

German rail – little impact as all contract.

Whilst I do not think that the II’s always get it right, I am sure that they have far more qualified analysts than me to look at whether the placing at 230p was an appropriate level to invest at for the long-term forward valuation of the company.

The results are in a few weeks so we should end up with a bit clearer idea then.