Member Info for Monkshood

I think the recent rise has a lot to do with it moving into the FTSE 250 auto entry range, driven in part, by the consistent buybacks.

And it's still going strong...
Mcap is getting into the FTSE250 range which will drive it up further.

For the webcast - and Q&A

Revenue for July was 65% up from 53% in June so certainly inline (or actually above) their base case.

Their modelled 'base case' scenario seems reasonably conservative, 50% revenue by August (look to be near that now), 70% by year end, 80% by next year - they can remain solvent under their worse case revenues (70% end of 2021).
The 17% increase in revenue before covid indicates that there is the potential for good revenue growth once this is behind us. I am still in as a long term hold.

The disconnect between POG and rsg sp is often rather irrational.
Most goldies took a hammering today so at least it is not rsg specific this time. I was hoping that they would have had some news about Bibiani by now to keep the momentum going.
This was always going to be the quarter when things started to pick up - a good set of results with confirmation that they can consistently recover at >80% on the sulphide circuit, plus some upgrades to satellite oxide deposits should be enough. An improvement in the political situation in Mali would help as well.

Well, that went up quite nicely...
Now it has shown that it had resilience of earnings during the lookdown I can see the price rising further still. Plenty of cash accruing for paying a divi at year end as well.
My only grip is that they always exclude PI's from webinars/conference calls, I really do not understand why they do this; if they engaged more with PI's it may help increase liquidity in the shares and would stop the spread being as large as it often is.

It has not been quite as resilient as I was expecting, especially as it opened earlier than some shops. Comparison with H1 19 rather flatters given the expansion of the estate in H2. However, it was doing well in Q1, the loan book value is increasing and sales /fx are picking up along with an increasing pawn book so I am holding.
Mixed sentiment about debt reduction, on one hand 11m reduction is good and illustrates the conservative approach of the company, but it is mainly because they were not lending which therefore affects future profits.
I also hold FRP (and similar) but for this sector, along with HAT, I think that it will be a while before the full impact of covid feeds through to give positive results for these companies..

Pretty good set of results.
This has been sold down but with the performance being close to last years, given the backdrop of covid, it should re-rate going forward.

Good news for the bus companies.
The Government seem to have resisted pressure from Councils to fund the buses via them which would almost certainly have resulted in money being siphoned off before it got to the companies.
The updates from GoAhead and First Group have current passenger numbers at around 40% which is higher than I was expecting at this stage.

Thanks for your input typ3. It is useful to get a feeling for how the UK business is doing. It fits with what my daughter, who uses buses quite a bit, has said about increasing passenger numbers of late.
Unfortunately things are going less well in Morocco where routes have been shut because of increasing infection rates. However, this does highlight the advantage of being an international company in these difficult times and how, as an important element of transport infrastructure it bounces back quite quickly. At 150-160 it should have the bad news priced in but it is going to be interesting to see how it goes this week .

A good article on this in the current issue of Science
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6504/608

An extract below giving an idea of the number of tests needed in US

'Antigen tests, which immobilize antibodies on a test strip, promise an even greater speedup. Those antibodies detect viral proteins in saliva or a nasal swab. Such tests cost as little as $1 to $2 each, give a yes/no readout within minutes, much like a pregnancy test, and are already used to detect influenza, HIV, and other viruses. Two companies—Quidel Corporation and Becton, Dickinson and Company (BD)—have received emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to sell antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2. Other companies have similar tests in the works.
Because antigen tests don't amplify viral material but simply detect what is present in the sample, they are less accurate than PCR. Some antigen tests correctly detect only one-half to three-quarters of infections. But they could still be a valuable health tool if performed often enough; few infected people would be missed in multiple rounds of tests. And people who receive a positive antigen test could be isolated and retested with a PCR test to confirm the result.
Among the hurdles facing widespread, repeat screening is the scarcity of such tests. Quidel and BD together manufacture about 3 million antigen tests per week. But a national screening strategy would likely require 25 million fast tests or more, says Jonathan Quick, who heads pandemic response for the Rockefeller Foundation. On 16 July, the foundation released a national COVID-19 testing plan calling on the federal government to spend $75 billion on providing 30 million screening and diagnostic tests per week.
Quick says companies are reluctant to ramp up production dramatically if they are unsure of the market for the products. One solution, he adds, could be a promise by the federal government to buy tens of millions of tests, much as it has done with vaccine doses. In one such effort, the governors of six U.S. states announced this week they are banding together to ask Quidel and BD for a total of 3 million tests.'

I assume that they will lock in another 30K this quarter for the March 21 quarter -if they do this at $2000 this would then give an average hedge for that quarter of $1788.
I like this strategy as it makes it less of a bet on short term gold prices (although you would not think it the way the price moves...)

Jange, do you know what they agreed to at the agm? I have not been able to find anything on what the resolutions were.
Last year they were talking about having a larger buyback but they needed share holder approval (which they were going to ask for this year) .
There is typically a resolution to give them the option to purchase some for treasury (like last year), but this is not a substantial amount.

Apologies - borderline dyslexic at the best of times.....

I am not sure that people are realising the significance of this test. It can be a replacement for pcr, the enzyme essentially amplifies the signal so it is sensitive and the affirmers are specific enough to prevent false positives.
Potentially you could combine this with a test for influenza by using affirmers to both in the well and different reporters.
Duplex ELISA tests are available for other antigens so this is not unreasonable.
Plate readers are far cheaper and far more common than Maldi ToF's!

That's it zz, a sandwich ELISA. Easy to put an enzyme on the affirmer to generate a colour (often fluorescent ) change.
Much as I like MS I think that this is a far more significant assay for the company.

Lots of variations but if you could put affirmers in a microtitre wellplate add saliva/buffer allow sars cov-2 to bind, wash, then add a second affirmer with a linked enzyme which can cause a colour change - then use a plate reader.
Lab based but fast, cheap and very high throughput

Not a pcr,
Good point Eric.
Nice that this is Avacta's own test- more revenue to them....

I would be very surprised if they have made that sort of mistake in the wording. I think that it is another test, ELISA's can be a high throughput test and hospitals /labs have the equipment to do these.

No one seems to have mentioned this - ' Avacta's ELISA laboratory test'
it's new one to me or have I missed mention of them developing one before?