For those that do not know, the White City Development is primarily based around the old BBC site which was purchased by Imperial College in 2009. There are a large number of new buildings belonging to both the college and other interests. There are various spaces devoted to start-ups and translational research. Imperial have moved their entire Chemistry Research Department to the site (along with some of their Oncology research). Their Chemistry Post Graduates are primarily based at the White City Campus so I don't see finding a supply of suitably skilled staff being a problem.
The will be a large station on at Old Oak Common. I think that it will be the interchange between HS2, Great Western and Crossrail.
Avacta are clearly confident that they have a long future ahead otherwise I doubt that they would be investing resources in moving ......sounds very positive to me.
AgentB- Off topic (for Avacta) -the Vatic test is interesting, but even they must have been worried when Omicron was first identified. The changes in S were so great that there was an initial concern by some that it may not enter the cells via ACE but use an alternative route used by a couple of other coronavirus. Possibly something to look forward to in the future!
Mutation rates in these proteins were known from other coronavirus. With a couple of exceptions all other companies have targeted N.
I did actually raise the point about this at a q&a back in 2020 and anyone who has been here since that summer knows I have been pretty consistent about this.
I don't recall many of the names commenting about this being around at that time.
The mutation rates of S vers N and higher N/S ratio was known 18 months ago.
They have spent around 16M on diagnostics over the past two years surely for this amount they could have worked up more than one assay in parallel.
Happy with the progress of the oncology side though.
Bloomberg's Pret index now has sales at UK airports, stations and suburban areas back to pre covid levels (based to Jan 2020). In the past this has, in some areas, been higher than the sales that were subsequently seen in Smiths results. Smiths results for airports was closer to that seen for the number of Flights. UK flights are now about 20% below their 2019 levels (compared to a comparable date) and normalising rapidly. TSA data for the US has footfall at 90%+ of that in 2019 Vegas has also been returning to higher level of visitors. Even below these levels the company was showing decent revenue's and profit in the US. Todays good results from Moonpig should be mirrored by returns from Funky Pigeon. Hospitals channels should also have resumed normalised levels of trade.
Things will have dipped a bit after their last update in January but should have bounced back quite strongly since. I think that the outlook in the Interim results at the end of April is going to be very positive.
FinnCap have uprated to 80p but their forward looking comments look positive.
'As SCE demonstrates, its ability to scale volumes during FY2022, we should be able to drop this component of risk as well, which would drive the valuation to 100p/share. We calculate that adding (and filling) capacity to £75m revenue would drive the valuation to 150p/share, with plenty of scope to grow well beyond this level.'
Februarys average wind speed has come in at 13.3 knots which is over 40% above the 10 year average. Combined, Jan and Feb are 13% over the long term average. March will be well below, but for the three months it should not be much more than around 5% below the 10 year average.
Prices have increased again to £250MWh and at this stage April is looking like it will be winder than March was. Jeffries yesterday moved from Hold to Buy .
Given the price recently paid for Hornsea Two, the next day price of electricity and the potentially OKish generation for the quarter I am looking forward to Greatcoats update towards the end of April.
I do wonder if some are trading between this and Avacta. I know that there is a degree of overlap in the holders and it does seem if one shoots up the other drops.
He clearly did not feel this was quite enough so he topped it up by exercising a further £400K share option.
With the prices at 4x their working model even with the lower production they should still be making a reasonable profit. What is more interesting is if Hornsea Two is now 'worth' 30% more expected, then UKW may increase their nav to reflect the increase in market value of their existing assets.
From The Times-
'French investors buy half of Hornsea Two offshore wind farm
Analysts at Bernstein said that the price paid by Axa and Crédit Agricole valued Hornsea Two at about a third more than they thought it was worth. They added that it “demonstrates the value external investors are ready to place on such assets” as the world embarks on a shift in how power is generated.'
January wind speeds were OK but below the long term average average (-1.5 SD's) , Februaries will likely have been above (government data should be released soon), March is clearly going to be be well below. Next day prices are still around 200MWh
MD Asia is retiring, he exercised his share options to generate a nice retirement bonus of £1,944,261.64....
Interestingly the CFO purchased some. He commented on the purchase yesterday saying that although he is leaving he believes the prospect for the business are good.
The impact from the situation in Ukraine will be about 1% of revenue(7M?), I think they said unified patents changes was about an 8M EBIT hit.
The main other thing is the short term increased capex next year, 50M over normal run rate.
With the next couple of years looking flat for profit I don't see the share price flying but as a good solid profitable business it should recover somewhat.
Those picking them up at the lows yesterday did well. I think I will keep what I have but I will wait a year before adding.
I had assumed that the unitary patent changes had been priced in (it has been an overhanging issue for years) and that Ukraine/Russia was likewise also priced in.
What caught me (and I guess others from the 30% fall) has been the forecast of no PBT growth for a couple of years at a time when it was expected that this would be growing with the projected cost savings following the acquisition of SDL.
Still, as you say 50% down from the acquisition does seem excessive. I will see what they say later today and then decide whether to average down or sell.