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May's wind speed data was 24% below the long term average, Aprils was also below, combined the two months come in at 15% below the long term average. The early part of June is unlikely to have been any better. I can see generation being well down this quarter although prices are still well above long term averages which should help to compensate.

The jet stream has now moved back to a more typical position so we are now back in a more 'settled' period of Southwesterly winds which should help generation.

Perhaps we should have a 'Why the rise' thread today - the 'alt 'trusts are leading the FTSE 250 , many with 4-5 % gains.

They have (at least had in March) 0.53% in a Thames Water bond which has (unsurprisingly) tanked from 88 to 53p over the past couple of days.

One of the good things about Bips is that it is very well diversified so problems with individual companies have limited impact on the overall performance of the trust.

The author (Prof Hughes) is not without his critics as there is of REF.

There was an article in the Guardian about the REF.

'The REF has strong links to a group accused of climate science scepticism, the Global Warming Policy Foundation, started by the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, who has denied global heating is a problem.

Prof Michael Kelly, a trustee of the REF also has a position on the board of the GWPF. John Constable, an adviser to the GWPF, has been quoted as an REF spokesperson and was previously its director of policy and research. '

It was mentioned at the AGM. There is audio coverage of this event on their web site.

They were expecting 2x divi cover this year so this indicates that they could have around £200m for investment or to reduce debt.

Given the guaranteed steady cash flow and long term nature of the returns I would imagine that they would be able to get very good rates even if they do have to refinance any of the loans.

They have a conference call at the end of July for H1 results so you could ask them about Hornsea debt then.

It was all well flagged in updates before todays results so not sure why you would be surprised? PBT was called to be a loss of £3.9m in the April update ,rather than final £4.0m but that was about it.

The only thing that I was not aware of is that they were writing £1.3M due to non payment, although I could have just missed it.

It has been all about the pickup in this financial (2024) for some time now.

WH Ireland-

'Decent start to the year underpins FY forecasts We view it as creditable that the company succeeded in generating double digit growth and reporting in line with significant growth expectations while investing deeply in the business. We retain our FY23E forecast unchanged and will look to introduce an FY24E forecast at the appropriate time. We note that the ratings are low by historical standards while the business continues to make significant progress, suggesting that there is plenty of upside for the shares as this comes through. '

Actuary -I agree with your conclusion (or I would not be invested here!).

Clearly the high energy prices recently have enabled them to reduce debt, but prior to this I think that a lot of their 're-investment' and growth has come from issuing new equity at a premium which is currently not an option.

Tichtich- It's a good point about the value of the debt/real rates. I also think that the managers have a good conservative approach with the way the business is run, being very selective of the assets they purchase, and the way they manage debt.

I guess for everyone it is about where you think inflation /interest rates will be in the next few years. For us as retail investors it is far easier for us to pivot than II's, so although I try and keep reasonably diversified I do wonder whether I should? I did consider ditching the 'alternatives ' once it was clear interest rates were on the way up, I got out of Reits but kept my holdings here at at BBGI as there was a degree of inflation linking .

It's nice to have be able to have a sensible discussion on one of these boards- thanks.

Actuary,- You make a good point but it does ignore the premium you need when compared to the risk free element of gilts.

Although a tranche of UKW's income is inflation linked, not all is. They have debt which will cost more to service when it comes up for renewal, the assets also have a (fairly) fixed life span. There are other risks, both from government intervention and possible extreme weather events.

Will UKW be able to maintain inflation linkage of their divis over the longer term?

For large pension funds looking decades ahead the risk free element of a high fixed return tips the balance increasingly in that direction with every rate increase.

Probably a combination of falling energy price, low wind (at least in the North/Ireland where they have the majority of turbines) and the prospect higher for longer interest rates.

You can get 2 year UK Gilts paying 5% now so the attraction of alternatives has diminished. You can see this across the board, most Infrastructure funds, REITs etc are also well down.

The other issue that a lot of these sectors have is that they can now no longer issue shares at a premium so it has also reduced their cash/liquidity . In past circumstances UKW would probably have issued shares by now to reduce debt and put themselves in a position to purchase another windfarm.

They have corrected the PY on the factsheet- now a far more respectful 11.29%!

PY was 9% in the May factsheet, rather surprised it was this low given it was over 11% in April and the nav/sp have not moved by more than 1p.

I should give up commenting! AT1 off over 1% today on the back of the Fed meeting yesterday. Interesting that Bips is up, the sceptic in me says it has probably being taken up to issue some shares when the nav drops, they typically do this at around 2.5p over nav.

Reuters (on LSE) -

'ING said in a note on Tuesday that BBVA's new issuance would make it "very likely" that the Spanish lender's 5.875% bond will be called in September.'

This is the final step needed to keep the AT1's on an upward trajectory.

Ivz AT1 is now back at 3200, still well below its peak of 3700 in February but it has showing a nice steady up trend since the CS turmoil. I also follow a Banco de Sabadell S.A. 5,75% bond (ISIN: XS2310945048) which is in BIPS and has shown a comparable trend (now at 85, compared to a peak of 93 in Feb and a low of 70 in mid March).

Also reported by Bloomberg today-

'The market for the riskiest type of bank debt is reopening, with Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and Bank of Cyprus Holdings Plc selling the first AT1 bonds in Europe after a controversial wipeout of Credit Suisse Group AG’s notes.

The Spanish bank is looking to raise between €750 million ($810 million) and €1 billion from the sale of Additional Tier 1 notes, offering an initial yield of around 8.75%

The Bank of Cyprus is offering €220 million notes at an initial yield of around 12.5%'

With the confidence instilled by the placing new AT1 debt we should (hopefully!) see continued recovery in this section which was around 30% of the fund.

The biomarkers seen using the Iknife ( worth looking up as it's great technique and developed by another IC group in the same department) are mainly lipids (not sure if the VOC's in this case are as the have not published this to my knowledge). It would not be hard to just trap them by blowing through a SPE matrix. Sampling gases/headspace like this is quite widely used. They are using TD-2D ToF GCMS for the analysis (certainly not the kit you would have in a GP's or even most hospitals!) . I have worked on a couple of projects using TD (thermal desorption) but we used a less high end 1D GCMS after. Over time they can probably simplify this once they can focus on a narrower diagnostic set of markers.

You can clearly get enough discrimination from the chromatography / MS Hard to see that affimers would help with this one especially as I don't thin that the markers would be usefully antigenic. It does however highlight the potential for interaction by being on the IC campus.

FinnCap-

'We estimate the NPV of future royalty streams for Tristel ULT in the US to be worth c.£82m or 173p per share, with a range of 117-315p. We raise FY 2024 adjusted pre-tax profit by £0.8m (12%) to £7.6m, with adjusted EPS rising 6% to 12.3p (+23% growth on FY 2023), held back by a higher tax rate. We raise our target price to 500p.'

#!3thmonkey, You would just trap the volatiles at the GP's by SPE (solid Phase Extraction) and then send them off for analysis. There is no way that with the type of MS required it would be an any doctors surgery.

That price is all pretty much in line with Cenkos price with revenues at £33m for 2024E, clearly if/when they double the revenue to the £75m p/a then the upside is greater.

I think that there is also a lot of potential outside of aerospace (both civilian and defence) which is what makes this such an interesting holding.