Member Info for moneyhawk

Up to 4000 barrels being removed was given as a figure when the well reopened. I reckon that's about 34% of the original FF.

Very interesting find Brom, many thanks for sharing your research! All guesswork at the moment until we’re told what’s happening, but looks like they are working hard to find solutions to the unforeseen difficulties and may have a chance of cracking it soon. On the other hand, if the next update doesn’t have a line to say oil is gushing out, (or words to that effect), expecting to see the doom mongers jumping up and down with glee, no matter how positive it is!

Just some thoughts on the updates we've had so far for Ice2. Most of the information we've had over the past few weeks has been remarkably open about the progress (or lack of depending on your view point), and that's pretty rare. How many other companies, especially on AIM, would try and hide or delay updates they knew would be taken badly? A lot of it is also fairly technical that most people just don't understand, and perhaps isn't actually necessary for it to be released.

What strikes me as positive here is that we have a BoD that is keeping investors fully up to speed as much as possible, whether its good or bad.

So when they include the line, "the timeline and forward plan to achieve the return of 30% of injected fluid is being re-assessed", do we believe them?

Some have taken it as being a failure, some haven't. It appears that no one knows how its going to go one way or another, but from what the BoD have actually said, it seems like they are still trying.

After waking up to see us down 8% on asx last night, it's a bit of a relief that we've closed on no change today!

Vigenere, yes the value of the metal in the tailings is going to be much higher, but there will be a cost to extract that metal. So the Net Present Value (NPV) is the profit after those costs. Of course its all an estimate, until they start processing we won't know how much its going to cost to produce anything from the tailings. And if the plant had a big enough capacity it could take less than 20 years which would mean a higher yearly profit, or additional material could be bought in (e.g. Star Zinc) which could boost both the life of the project and yearly profit.

Sumo, valid questions. (Assume you mean ii's though?)

No idea what they were told about Kabwe, however I remember Beaufort produced an assessment before they went under giving an estimated NPV of $500m at Kabwe. If the project runs for 20 years, and at 40% share, that'd work out at $10m a year for us. Not bad when you consider that at the moment our payment for this is a loan which we get back +30%.

We possibly are at the point now of producing a profit. End of year this month, so expect results November time. But the first 6 months weren't good in terms of earnings , and any profit will have come as a result of hernics earnings for the past 6 months, which will be a better indication of where we are than just looking at the full year.

For the next 12 months, we should also have platcro and DCM platinum earnings coming in during the year, so looking like an improving situation for cash flow and profits.

Regarding conroast, I'm not sure just how relevant that is anymore. As we move away from being PGMs focused the chances of us building a conroast smelter must be diminishing.

I think if this deramper based comments on actual facts rather than making them up then people might take more notice. Saying that the SP always declines with news just isn't supported by the facts. Fair to say we've had our fair share of bad news and results that have been below expectations, and the SP has fallen. But not always the case, and in fact the SP has risen more often than its fallen with news over the past few months.

See here for analysis of how the SP has moved with news:

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/news-analysis.html?fourWayKey=GB0031852162GBGBXASQ1&page=1

How is it incorrect? They’ve said the throughput the plant achieved in a day, and how many tonnes could be processed in a month if they run it at that capacity everyday for a month. 1900 x 30 = 57,000. So there’s nothing to say that the information was incorrect, but it’s now obvious that the plant isn’t being run at max/design capacity. Something to bear in mind for BMRs plans for a 5tph plant.

All BMRs last RNS really said was that JLP are making all the decisions and that they can’t do anything until JLP give the go ahead.

Yes they are taking their time! Cant say for certain this will mean a better deal, but will hopefully mean a more complete plan being announced. i.e. clear idea of plant design and processing capacity, time scales, when will vanadium be included, how much it'll cost, how it'll be funded, are we paying extra for a larger share etc.

Noticed that inclusion of the 3D mention too, its been in both RNS's this week. Looks like from that they might have the initial 3D results now, and they at least confirm the findings from 2D. But if they're being used in negotiations the results might be treated as confidential for now. They do appear to be able to keep a tight ship on information, the deal on Monday took everyone by surprise, so who knows what else is possibly coming up.

Wasn't Yukon Gold referred to by him recently as 'Plan D'? Which would of course make the great bear acreage 'Plan E'.

88e had a much better reaction to Monday’s news than rmp had. 88e’s mcap went up by around £15-16m on the back of that news, while rmp went up by about £4-5m. In % terms for the SP rmp may have had a higher rise, but 88e did have a much bigger rise in mcap. All of that rise is wiped out today though, and that’s because we’ve had a disappointing update on a different project, while rmp have had no update because they’ve got nothing else going on.

Unless (or until) we get an RNS to say the well is being shut in and abandoned, I'm working on the basis that it's still possible for a successful flow test to happen. That's not to say I'm not worried, obviously the news today isn't positive. But some key things today are that the well head pressure has been managed lower, and that they don't believe contact with the reservoir has been achieved yet. So 32psi isn't representative of the reservoir pressure that could eventually be pushing the oil up.

Why all the posts saying the test well has failed or is going to fail?

The company have been remarkably open on how its going and providing regular updates. It doesn't strike me as anything being hidden from us. The update today is pretty upfront that although early results were as expected, its now not going as expected and they are trying to figure out what needs to be done now and how long it will now take. That's a long way from being a failure in my view, its just a delay.

Also remember that this one well was never going to prove up the whole claim. 88e have mentioned before upto 10 wells will be needed for that with the intention of it being funded by a farmout partner, so as long as they can work out what needs to be done for those other wells its not really changed much in that respect.

Pipster, have a look through garrym posts, he explains it very well, and basically the answer seems to be yes. A simpler non technical description of what’s happening is to think of it as removing a cork from a bottle. It’s tough to get the cork out, but once it’s removed wine can flow out easily.

I think probably a lot going on behind the scenes. Meeting with Zam Gov just one element. JLP also finalising project designs and budget on the back of that meeting(s), JLP deciding whether or not to proceed, presenting those plans to the JV company, and then BMR possibly needing to get finance. Although frustrating, I think I'd rather prefer it's all announced together so any good news we get isn't clouded with uncertainty about what is actually going to happen.

Remember if the project is going to require more than £2.3m, JLP and BMR both have to fund the difference according to their JV company split. Presumably part of whatever agreement has been made will allow some time for BMR to try and get their share together, and JLP can't just say its going to cost £x extra so we're going to have x% extra today because you don't have any money.

Yes its not showing in the RNS on this site. But the news was released yesterday morning.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/company-news.html?fourWayKey=AU00000088E2GBGBXASQ1

Not sure. It’s $50k a month, no doubt with some broker fees added for good measure. But would hope jlp will want it handled the same way as before, so not sure if the sells today fit the bill.

Whether someone’s trying to ramp or de-ramp, the news today does at least look to confirm there’s no leaking info here. Deals like this with 4 companies involved don’t happen over night. If there were leaks, anyone think rmp wouldn’t have seen some unusual volume over the past few weeks and big rises before today?