Member Info for moneyhawk

It does seem to me that Fear of Being Burnt is overriding Fear of Missing Out at the moment. Its disappointing that the SP is dropping, but I don't see a reason to panic about it. I wasn't intending on selling up quickly, so all it means to me is that a paper profit is less than I would like it to be. Ultimately the value here will come once there is more data on what is in the ground, how easy it is to get out, and when the terms of farm-outs are known, all of which wasn't going to happen this month. From a non-technical expert, I'm optimistic that there is a lot more to come and the technical experts that are running the show know what they are doing. If there was no chance of Ice2 working, why would they plough more money into it this year instead of accepting its not worked and that they need to drill again from scratch? Likewise with the 3D, we already have good prospects showing on the 2D, so why spend money on 3D if its unlikely to add to the data already available.

Snaffleman, looks like you’re right, northam have confirmed delivery of pgm material from us on 14th June, to start processing by feb. So all appears on track for platcro. https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/33294-northam-set-fair-promising-advance-booysendal-south/

30% is the target they've stated many times for what they expect is needed to be removed. Although going back to the start of the well reopening a few weeks ago, they also stated a figure of up to 4,000 barrels may need to be removed. 5533 barrels had already been removed, so the 4,000 extra would bring us to 9533 barrels, or 34% of the 27,837 barrels of frack fluid. All means its possible that more than 30% may have to be removed, based on what we've been told. But the upper end is looking more like 34% than 50% at the moment.

Don’t forget about the last bmr statement that they’re expecting Jlp to update them by the end of June. If the meeting happens today (or has already happened), pretty unlikely we’ll be updated before bmr are. So update could be any time from now, but may not be until end of next week or the week after. Also on the dcm upgrades for pgm, we’re told an 8 month build time that still needs regulatory approval. Preparations for the build may be underway, but looking like platcro will be starting production first.

I agree itsaduster. I'm still hopeful that kabwe is going to work out, and if it does then its a great reward for the risk taken on it. But everything that has been cropping up with BMR just leaves more questions than answers. The BMR shareholders seem to have suffered many years of this, so I hope once the project is up and running we can keep BMR at arms length as much as possible so LC and co can focus on the next project after kabwe. Not long to wait to find out what the master plan is, but if it means pulling out of the deal then its more a set back than a disaster in my view. Hernic is starting to live up to its promise, platcro will start producing earl next year, and hopefully work on the PGM circuit at DCM will have started by the end of this year as well. So still enough going on to keep growing the bottom line in the short term without kabwe.

Yes, been thinking that as well, or possibly both 3d results and flow rate at the same time during the first few days in July. Making an assumption that to get to 30% frack fluid is going to take slightly longer than 14 days unless the rate increases.

A thought on the numbers we've been given so far. On the current rate of fluid removal, it looks like it may take a little longer than the 10-14 days estimate at the start. I reckon about 18 days to get to 30%, unless the flow rate increases, so around 29th June to hit 30% with Monday 2nd July being a good date pencil in for an important update. That means of course that we may end up with the 3D results before Ice2 results, or possibly both together. All in my opinion of course.

Approx figures I’ve seen before are that there is in the region of 1 billion cars worldwide, and 70 million cars made a year. EVs make up a fairly small amount of the market at the moment, which will no doubt change one day. But until then cars will still be accounting for a lot of the demand for oil for the foreseeable future, and the switch over is going to take a long time unless a massive increase in car manufacturing occurs.

The lack of basic understanding of the process by some people is what’s amazing. It’s almost like they thought a magic oil tap had been planted in the ground and now they think the spell hasn’t worked.

Don't forget Yukon Gold either. Seems like small fish compared to the potential at Icewine, but still an estimated 120M barrels recoverable. This weeks fall in the MCAP is now valuing us at less than £1 a barrel for Yukon Gold, and ignoring the billions of barrels potential at Icewine.

I'm not sure what to expect in the final results, the interims showed a loss for the first 6 months. We know they received £600k from philite ltd after the year end (in the March trading statement), so that won't show in the final results, and the trading statement also mentioned HTVS revenue failing into Feb/March, so again that won't show. Possible they've made a decent enough profit that will at least stabilise the MCAP, but any detail on revenue after the year end could be more encouraging.

Had a look through the reports to see what DW holds. In the annual report Published Feb 2017 its stated he held 11,666,666 shares with 67,125,000 options. In the RNS on 7th Feb 2018, its stated he held 32,291,666 shares with 60,000,000 options. So in the space of a year he's added over 20M shares, and still has a lot of options. Seems to me that he holds a fair old amount, a lot more than most investors, and has a lot to lose if 88e doesn't deliver.

We’ll end of year is this month, so we can start to get an idea of what to expect in the annual accounts. I believe we’ll show a modest profit, maybe up to a couple of £m at the most. But the bulk of the earnings will have come from the 2nd half, which will be a better measure of where we are now than looking at the full year.

Good reminder of where we’ve come from BB. Now here’s a good question - does anyone think we could have expanded without the dilution? Although never very pleasant, we’ve got several projects that are or are about to start generate earnings as a result. Without the dilution, would we just be treading water without much future other than tjate ‘one day’?

I don't understand it either. The RNS confirmed that everything is moving ahead as per the plan announced, which was recommencing flowback on 11th June, and for the frack fluid removal to take 10-14 days from that date. Were people really expecting the 10-14 day part to have happened in a matter of hours after the well was reopened?

Thanks garrym, once again some great insight!

I found this use description of how artificial gas lift works: "Gas lift systems aid flow to the surface by reducing the density of formation fluids in the wellbore. Gas lift systems consist of valves installed at various depths along the tubing string, which open in response to the pressure exerted on them by the rising fluid column. When the valve opens, injected gas mixes with and lightens the fluid column, reducing the hydrostatic and thus the bottomhole pressure. The lower hydrostatic pressure reduces the drawdown pressure and allows formation fluid to enter the wellbore. The less dense fluid column may then be lifted to the surface by reservoir pressure alone."

You missed the lesser known 210,000 code right before the 1 code. This code means that someone wanted shares and bought 210,000 of them. Lol

Good post Percylleyn. Hopefully by the end of the month we'll have a clearer idea of what the plans are for Kabwe and what they've been discussing with the Zambian Gov. It seems likely though that if the 5tp/h plant is what we will start with and there isn't a plan for how and when this will be expanded, then we won't be seeing much in the way of earnings from Kabwe for quite some time, (unless we view debt repayments as earnings). Not really a huge issue for us, Hernic earnings are ramping up and early next year we could have two further earning streams coming in with Platcro and DCM platinum. But would be an issue for BMR which would continue to cast a cloud over the project.

Does look like there’s been a lot of panic selling by people who saw the word ‘water’ when they thought they’d see the word ‘oil’. As Warren Buffett once said “The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.”