Member Info for moneyhawk

Posters on the BMR board look to be resigning themselves to delisting from AIM. Not long left to go before their deadline and its gone very quiet on the appointment of a new NOMAD. Perhaps no one wants to touch them after their blue square dealings.

It would seem our chances of being able to buy into a bigger share of kabwe are increasing. But still far from certain. BMR will continue to exist even if they are delisted, and continue to own the assets at kabwe, but access to funding will become more difficult. Although the thought has occurred to me that the private investors that have been alluded to by BMR may actually prefer to invest in a private company rather than a publicly listed company

Yes I agree, most likely there has been some discussion for quite a while, but not fully progressed until the flow test. The fact they suspended it relatively quickly does give support to the view that data needed by at least one potential partner may have been gathered.

How can anyone see there’s already a problem with the proposed farmout for Icewine/hrz? There’s been talk of a farmout this year for quite a while, but it was only announced on 2nd July that the process has commenced (18 days ago) for hrz. Can’t really expect a deal signed by now, I would assume there’s going to be a lot of aspects to negotiate and for the farmee to consider. If there’s no update on it by the end of the year then perhaps it would indicate a problem with finding someone interested or willing to agree satisfactory terms, but not after 18 days.

Now we've got the full year production, revenue and earnings, has anyone given though to what the end of year figures could be looking like?

From today's figures I make it combined revenue for the year from DCM and Hernic of £14.23M, with earnings of £4.98M.

Last years accounts showed operating expenses of £3.44M, and 2016 as £4.69M

Also to consider, we raised £4.5M in January.

Could it be we might have actually turned the corner to become profitable this year?

Looks a good solid update showing progress. Not amazing at the moment, but gives the impression all the pieces are coming together to enable further earnings growth for quite a while from the projects that are operational or in development. There should be more to come from hernic, hopefully they’ll be producing around 2000oz a month from as a minimum from now on, with potential for more. It’d be helpful if there was an explanation for what the holdup is for pgm approval at dcm. The original project was for us to generate earnings from pgms, so it’s a little surprising it’s now taking some time on that front. Good to see confirmation that platcro tailings have started to be moved, which will start to boost earnings next year. Also good to see some progress of Kabwe, although it’s a bit unclear at the moment what funding we’ve committed too, and if this work is being done as part of the original funding agreement or if we’re paying for this work in addition to that until the formal agreement with bmr is signed off.

Mikemike, many thanks for offering to collate some questions for us. I have three to offer up; 1. Would the next stage to prove up the hrz be a farm out even if we had achieved a good flow result from Icewine2? 2. Is the plan for the farm out mentioned just for Icewine2H, or is an option for the whole HRZ being considered? 3. Is conventional in the farm out an option, or will we be looking to prove that up on own our or via a separate farm out?

My thoughts on it are that a lot depends on just what they’ve learnt from ice2. It was suspended after just 19 days, which suggests they got what they needed to make a decision on the next step pretty quickly, and didn’t think it necessary to spend money at this stage to keep trying over the summer. What that next step might be is just a guessing game. Could be the horizontal for the hrz, could be to refocus on the conventional, could be Yukon gold. But whatever it is, the q&a’s from last year do give some confidence that they’ve prepared for a range of outcomes, and had already given a lot of thought on what to do if the flow test didn’t give the results everyone wanted to see.

Dazzle, many thanks for posting the link. That question and answer session may have been 18 months ago, but it does actually address many of the questions currently being asked. Well worth reading if anyone hasn't yet, link repeated:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2AU6eavFBsoXzlvVUZHR1dCelU/view

Some of the Q&As I found most interesting and gives a clue to what plan may emerge:

Q -What can you share with us about his thinking now for the conventional, what is the likely way forward?
A - If Ice2 is unsuccessful we will look to mature one or more leads and either farmout or raise funds to drill. If Ice2 is successful then the delineation wells for the HRZ will be designed to intersect conventional targets also.

Q - When they are drilling Icewine2V will they be considering ALSO doing drilling to confirm the conventional oil at the same site?
A - We have announced late Q1 spud. Alpha is 9000ft away so will not be tested by the initial well bore. HRZ is primary target. May be tested in a subsequent sidetrack depending on HRZ results.

The claim they mention isn’t against a current director, they say a former director. Jackson is a former director of one of the emex companies, but also Porter is a former director of 3 of them, who resigned May 2018. Could be either one of them, or maybe neither, until there’s more info it’s impossible to say. And on the various companies involved, where has Net World ltd come from? Appears to have no connection at all to box, so how are we selling it? Really not sure about this deal, sounds like there’s some business left over after it, but very vague at the moment. The £2m will be paid from earnings generated from the business box is selling to a director, and over a 10 year period with no interest. Maybe it’s a good deal considering the current mcap, maybe it’s not, but appears to be no choice. Looks like if share holders vote against it the BoD are basically going to scuttle the company. As for the accounts which should be published end of this month, there’s not exactly a reason given for why these are going to be delayed. They clearly have the accounts, as mention is made of earnings for year. Overall, another strange update from box that leaves questions about what is happening.

Yes indeed, and that's a great example of how far we've progressed recently. We're no longer looking for updates on one or two projects, but 4 projects (or 5 if you count DCM platinum separately), all of which are very achievable and are or likely to be generating profits in the near future.

Thanks juxtapose. Full year results ending 30th June should make for some good reading around November time, as judging by the way Hernic has performed in H2 compared to H1, (from what we know at the moment), H2 should be significantly better. Next quarterlies will start to give some idea of what the full year revenue and profit margins have been.

I'd assume that at this stage in JLPs development most, if not all, surplus cash will be used to pay off debt or fund plant construction at DCM and Kabwe. So not expecting huge profits, but it would be nice to at least avoid another year with a loss showing in the accounts.

I recall LC stating on several occasions that we're generating positive cash flow at project level. This is somewhat different to making a profit at corporate level. In order to achieve that, our projects need to be profitable first, and as those profits increase then we have more cash to use to expand and/or generate profits at cooperate level, which I see as the reason why LC is keen to emphasis the successes at project level.

Interesting, either the list is wrong or BMR have sold some more shares.

The notification on 12th June after their sale said BMR hold 46,503,697, or 3.55%

BMRs holding was previously notified as Pershing Nominees

Thanks for the links. So it sounds like there are precedents for this kind of situation, and if it turns out the Yukon gold reservoir does extend eastwards into anwr then we can draw it out, but the government can't claim revenue from that oil unless they have a lease sale.

Will be interesting to see what 88e's assessment on yukon gold says later in the year.

Just catching up on some of the posts, and this might be stupid question time, but what's the significance of Yukon Golds reservoir possibly extending into the anwr?

Does this mean we can't draw oil out of it unless a lease is given in area 1002, or that royalties don't apply unless a lease is given?

Quite possibly a lot of truth in that. I'm learning that the best approach to take with JLP timescales is to double them and then add 6 months. Avoids disappointment when the progress doesn't happen in the timescales that are announced.

Not trying to be negative, just taking stock of what's happened with all our projects over the past couple of years, which is progress is being made, but at a slower rate than expected. Kabwe now looks to be following a similar path to DCM, where it sounds like we're going to have something built and producing on time, but its only going to be part of the project with Zinc. The time scales for the other parts are already slipping back, so they need to demonstrate that the DCM scenario with pgms sitting in piles for a couple of years while decisions are made isn't going to be repeated.

If we get a tiny plant at kabwe churning through 5t/ph just to produce Zinc, that might just about repay our loan in a few years, but its not going to generate any profits for a long time.

But quarterlies due in the next week or two, so hopefully we'll get a few updates on what's happening.

Could be a good sign, the SP has been in decline since he stopped his campaign of ridiculous comments.

On the comment about the HRZ having failed, thats not what 88e have actually said. Worth considering that when it was reopened a 10-14 day estimate was given to obtain flow rates. We know that they didn't get to the point of flowrates, and it was suspended after just 19 days. Not really that long. They say ice2 has met most of the objectives is was designed for, (with the exception of the headline objective most understand). It was never going to be a production well, it was only ever designed to gather data for the next stage.

So after 19 days they seem to have come to the conclusion that they got most of the data required and there wasn't much point spending more time and money on it. Not exactly a failure or running out of money. It appears its a sensible decision.

Yes Tjate has been be a big factor in our valuation in my view. Previously all hope was on tjate one day getting the mining licence and then for a big plan plan to be revealed. The mining licence came, but then there was no plan, and I think we've been suffering ever since. Not many here really expected the platinum price to remain so low for so long, and its difficult to now see it changing in the near term, if ever. Look through the last annual accounts, and it becomes pretty clear why its a non-starter. What was once billed as massive potential is now pretty marginal if a mine would even break even at these prices. Who's going to invest 100's millions in something that won't make a return?

But now we've repositioned to be a very different company with projects that can actually make a profit, but its taking some time to show through. And we certainly had our fair share of setbacks and delays so far.

I also agree that the SLP comparison is well worth looking at. There's some obvious differences, mainly that they have been making decent profits, and which shows its both possible and achievable. Our strategy is very similar, but with a big difference that we are no longer solely chasing pgms, and we are targeting a range of metals. So the platinum price becomes less relevant.

Maybe platinum prices will recover one day, and the way we are going, by then we might actually be able to fund a fair part of the development costs for tjate without having to give away most of it to a partner. But if that never happens, then it doesn't appear that it will be a massive lose anymore.

As far Hernic, it now looks like its going well. Quarterly figures in the next couple of weeks should hopefully give some positive reading, with what's looking like about 6000oz for the quarter from what we've been told.

I originally assumed that 3D results would be released as part of the progress news over the summer. But re-reading all the various releases where its mentioned, I'm coming round to the idea that it may not be for public release any time soon, and is just being used for farmout negotiations at present.

However, it does appear likely that they may have the early results they aimed for, and those support the assumptions that 3D will confirm leads identified in 2D. The project icewine background information that's included in most releases changed on the 25th June to include a reference to 2D & 3D results, as opposed to just 2D.

If that's the case, then we can probably also assume that farmout negotiations for conventional are underway as planned, and when those are complete then maybe we may get more of an update on what the 3D shows.