Member Info for moneyhawk

Looks like even MVZ has bought in, at 8.01 this morning. Let’s hope the price doesn’t fall back or we’ll never hear the end of the % he’s lost (on 13 pence). lol

Just wondering if there's any info out there of what the chance of success has been on recent northslope drilling prior to those drills taking place?

e.g. conocco phillips announced 6 out of 6 successful appraisal/exploration drills last winter on the north slope. But does anyone know what chance of success they were at beforehand?

Would be interesting to compare to our play.

Some fair comments there, and yes still many unknowns, some in our control, some outside of our control.

I wouldn't say DCM is a disaster, although it has disappointed so far with the lack of pgm processing to date and the slow down of chrome. An explanation has been given for that, and a plan for progressing the pgms, so I'm content to wait and see if it improves once the upgrades are finished. However DCM was the first project in this strategy, it was a good start, but compared to what we now have it's pretty small and isn't hugely significant.

And what all of the chrome/pgm projects offer is a good base to work from, with revenue coming in from different sources to cover running costs and provide cash to fund further projects, either directly or being able to service debt taken on to fund those projects. So in this regard, I'm happy with how JLP have been progressing even if its taking a little longer than first thought.

I also think platcro is a far better deal than first appeared, and the timing now looks to be fortuitous. Maybe its not going to be a huge earner for many years to come, but the cash it will be generating in the short term could go a long way to cover the cost of developing kabwe, which will reduce reliance on debt and/or placings.

With kabwe the biggest outstanding issue for me (aside from the licensing issues) is what the costs of production will be. The gross profit margins being achieved at Hernic are good, and if margins at kabwe are anywhere near Hernics, then the picture for JLP looks a whole lot better.

So which of the projects under the current strategy are leading to this so called destruction of shareholder value?

Is it DCM, where we are generating earnings from chrome with PGM material being stockpiled and plans in motion to start processing that to produce around 10,000oz per year?

Is it hernic that has been ramping up production and now looks good to produce at least 25,000 oz per year going forward at a very low cost price?

Is it the platcro tailings that we paid a bit over £3m for, and looks set to start producing over 30,000 oz per year in Feb?

Is it kabwe which we've basically got for free and potentially holds over $1B worth of lead, zinc and vanadium with profits very conceivably running into 100's millions over the life of the project?

I would be fascinated to hear about an alterative strategy that they could have developed with the same kind of expenditure and delivered better prospects.

Haven't we already had the 3D news? It was at the start of august and resulted in multiple new prospects and the conventional resources being upgraded by 500M barrels from the 3D covering just 25% of our acreage.

Further 3D news for Yukon Gold expected in Q4 though.

Sumo, JLP have already given us most of this information in the most recent statements on Kabwe and in the webcast, so wouldn't expect a further JLP statement on it until there's something new to say.

The BMR statement offers a different perspective though, as its written as a justification to their shareholders for why the assets were given away to us. Which is essentially that they couldn't afford to contribute to the increased costs associated with a bigger plant and different processes that JLP have determined are needed.

On BMRs website:

http://www.bmrplc.com/announcements/20082018%20Post-delisting%20announcement.pdf

Much of it is already known, but it does appear to confirm that JLP have effectively torn up BMRs plan to build a 5 t/ph plant, and that something much bigger is to be built. This will be at a higher cost than originally proposed, but will offer greater returns. Some quotes from the BMR statement:

"Jubilee determined as a consequence that a larger plant should be built at a significantly increased cost. The enhanced process flowsheet offers the potential for improved capital efficiency and reduced circuit complexity."

"As a result of these changes, the expected costs of construction and commissioning of the processing facility have increased. This gives the potential for greater net returns, even after taking into account the price of acid which has increased significantly since the time of BMR’s original costings and would have had a significant adverse impact on the Company’s former plans."

I wouldn't be surprised if we are never told the exact splits for profit shares on Hernic and Platcro. Maybe they're hiding something that the market would take badly, but maybe not. If we assume that they are actively seeking new projects and negotiating possible terms, its conceivable that they don't want to disclose terms that they've agreed on other projects in order to strengthen their hand (or at least not weaken it) when entering those negotiations. For example, if they announce they've agreed a 50/50 or a 60/40 split at Hernic, that could become the standard that a new partner would expect, whereas CB/LC would presumably be trying to achieve the highest % for JLP as possible.

Its also possible there are confidentiality clauses in the contracts which prevent them from disclosing certain details. Although I can't see why they wouldn't say if that was the case.

Anyway, just some thoughts, trying to take an open mind as to the reasons why they haven't disclose the profit share splits, and that there are possible reasons other than they are trying to hide something from investors.

Pros and cons of both companies, but JLP are in production and generating revenue while WRES will be a while longer before any cash starts to come in. They also seem to be overlooking the 5.5billion shares wres have in issue, which rather makes CB look like an amateur when it comes to throwing the confetti around.

Yes I'd echo that, disappointing and a little unexpected. Could also be the unknown factors with Kabwe in particular holding back a true value emerging. After all, we've got an exceptionally good deal, does it have the appearance of something that's too good to be true?

May have to wait a while longer silvertrader. I don't expect to see much news for another couple of months. The main things I'm looking forward to with the rough times indications are: 1. Farm out news, before end of the year; 2. Yukon Gold assessment and 3D, in Q3; and 3. Icewine 2V analysis, a few months from start of July.

So plenty to come, but I'm not expecting major news until later in the year. However, always that possibility news for a farm out could come anytime.

That would depend on whether what they are doing for chrome at DCM is transferable to other metals, I'm not sure it would be directly transferable. All the hints we've had is that something involving copper/cobalt as the next project is the ambition. Possible though that improvements made for chrome recovery at DCM could be used at Hernic, and may be a good bargaining chip for a better deal with the new owners if they want to improve efficiency at their new acquisition.

Yes I don't imagine for one minute that having access to pre-arranged finance of $50m to build and develop projects comes for free. We can only speculate on the exact terms of the agreement, however we know that the 2.5% equity option is in the JLP subsidiary that is running the DCM and Hernic projects, rather than JLP itself. Its also probable that to agree that level of funding they would have been privy to a few more details of the projects than are publicly available (such as detailed cost and profit forecasts for each project) and a more complete picture of possible target projects for JLP going forward.

MVZ, thanks for confirming the approach you take for your posts on price movements during the day.

Theweeble, as you well know someone has already taken a punt on JLP, not to the tune of $9m you've suggested is needed, but of $50m.

Thanks for updating us. A 9% rise on JSE! That’s good isn’t it? But are you now saying that picking arbitrary moments during a day to report the price movement at that particular moment in time isn’t a good way to determine the share price movements?

How's the price on JSE looking today? You seem to have forgotten to give us your daily update today.

It’s a pretty common statement many companies make on occasion, such as when there’s a sudden change in trading patterns or when they become aware of rumours that may be influencing the market. They either confirm there’s no new information to that already released or give an update accordingly.

Did you check BMRs history? As pointed out already, bmr have previously raised funds to build a plant, claimed they had built it, and then it disappeared. Is it surprising they couldn’t raise more funds to build it again? As for Borrelli putting the money in, where do you think BMRs money has gone? Why would Borrelli put it all back in again when he’s worked so hard to get it out?

I’m sure theweeble also knows that platcro is more than 1.2m tonnes and 20 months of earnings. The deal wasn’t just for what was at surface at the time, but all future tailings as well, and it’s been growing ever since the deal was agreed. But it suits his position at the moment to down play it, having told us before that he’s sold his entire holding at a loss.