RE: SP8 Nov 2018 09:51
2020 seems like a reasonable estimate for when we'll really start seeing in the accounts how well the business model is working. The big questions are how well will it be working, if the market will start to price it in before we get there, and what else we'll have going on by then.
The full year results for year end June 2018 will probably not be that great. In my opinion, at best they'll probably only show a small profit, but more likely to be around breakeven or small loss. From the quarterlies we've had, we can make some estimate what the revenue and earnings from operations has been for the year, and it'll be more than last year, but its difficult to know what all the costs have been.
However, one thing that we do know is that the majority of the earnings for last year will have come from the 2nd half with Hernics earnings significantly better in Q3 & Q4 than in Q1 & Q2. This bodes well for this year, ending June 2019, where we'll have a full year of decent earnings from Hernic, plus additional revenue and earnings starting to come in from DCM and platcro in the 2nd half.
So looking forward to 2020, we'll then have a full year of Hernic, DCM chrome upgrades and Platcro, which should more than compensate for any reduction we then see in Hernics earnings if the profit share starts in that year. By then we should also be getting a return from Kabwe. Hopefully all 3 parts of Kabwe will be fully operational and up to speed in 2020, which could be a substantial increase in earnings, and maybe even the long awaited PGM's from DCM.
But until there's a clearer picture from the BoD on whats happening with each project its all guess work.