Member Info for moneyhawk

Lol, whoever created predictive text obviously didn’t know the periodic table!

I don't get where you're coming from. The RNS today clarifies how its been dealt with and that all the shares as part of this deal have been sold (or placed as they term it). There's no noticeable change in trading patterns since the blue square problem was announced, volumes still very low with a fairly typical amount being bought and sold each day.

Hi MM, not disputing plans for star zinc ore and Kabwe. But not convinced it’s needed to get the plant running, and doesn’t look to me that star zinc will be mining anything before the end of the year. And with the current plans at Kabwe being just 5t/ph it doesn’t make much sense to truck additional material over 100km when there’s enough on site to keep it going for well over 100 years. Hopefully though JLP will be making plans to increase the plant capacity to be more suitable for the scale of the resource. Would be great news all round if we’ll be starting with a bigger plant.

I guess the next RNS or two will be holding notifications to confirm BMRs reduction and maybe another one if the shares have gone to someone with more than 3%. But good news that piece of uncertainty of how the shares are going to be sold off is removed. Looks like a bad situation has been managed well by JLP.

Just an observation on this discussion, strikes me that it’s a good sign of confidence here that the discussion is not that many are anticipating a big rise, but how the size of the initial rise already taken place should best be described. GLA

Hi smcd, there appears to be a lot more potential than just the unconventional here. I’ve found the anyalst reports on 88e’s website to be helpful for my decision making here. They’re all a little out of date now, but still informative. The most recent from May 2017 suggests the mcap at that point was already factoring in a successful flow rate of 100-200 at Ice2. But also of the opinion that no value is being assigned from the conventional or possible farmouts. And of course this was written pre Yukon gold. Value from the conventional could be recognised with 3d results. Link here: http://88energy.com/analyst-reports/

This is all bringing back vague memories of a-level physics and wondering if I’m ever going to need to know this stuff in the real world. I wish I’d retained a bit more!

Great post at 13.26. I’m sure there’s many, myself included, that will find this very informative. I understand the potential volumes, size of acreage, anyalst reports etc etc. But the technicalities and process of actually getting that oil out of the ground is something I’ve still a lot to learn about. So thank you!

Last placing wasn’t for Kabwe, just fund raising with ii’s coming on board. Maybe some of that cash raised will be used to provide the £2.3m project finance though?

Mcmac, yes I don't think that JLP have definitively said no more placings either. I recall they have talked about it in webcasts/interviews, where they refer to the improving earnings and cash position and that they don't want/need to fund through placings in future, or words to that effect. But they haven't ruled it out. Judging by their approach, if a good opportunity came along that required �5m to be paid quickly (as an example), and we didn't have �5m cash available at the time, it'd be funded through a placing rather than pass it over.

3card, yes its good to see JLP outperforming BMRs sp movement for a change :) Only another 50% to go and we'll be back to where we were before kabwe first got mentioned here. Back then Hernic wasn't producing anywhere near the amount of PGMs as it is now, and we had no plan for DCM or Platcro PGMs. Its amazing how progress on multiple fronts has affected the SP, lol

Some good points on the projects 34Deg. But to be fair not everything has been going entirely to plan, and some things are taking a bit longer than many thought it would take. Some of the problems of JLPs making, some no fault of their own, and sometimes it seems like whenever there is good news, bad news follows shortly. But it does all look to be coming together. I think the hernic figures are probably better than a lot of people have realised. As you pointed out, the 2101 oz from 39k tonnes is good. The critics will of course say this isn't 2500oz. But in fact if we got that kind of ratio of oz to tonnes with the amount tonnes processed in March, then we'd be just short of 2500oz a month, and if we processed the target of 55000 tonnes at the same ratio, we'd be at more that 2500 oz a month. So the plant is perhaps now performing exactly as its supposed to, even if its not hitting the 2500oz target. Some commentary/analysis from JLP would be useful on that. Maybe they'll look to expand a bit in the next quarterly update or webcast on how the plant is performing against the design specifications?

I’ve not been particularly keen on the idea of us buying out bmr, even less so now. We’ve already got a good deal on Kabwe, which could get better, and for very little cost. Why spend money buying a company that looks increasingly high risk? Who knows what other payments they’ve got pending. I’d rather see our money spent on another project beyond Kabwe.

You'd have to assume as well that this will not help bmr to attract serous investors for the 3p placing they want, and will also make it harder for them to raise their share of any extra needed to develop Kabwe. Therefore more likely we'll end up with more than 40% once it has played out. A lot depends on what the plan is, which hopefully we'll find out in the next few weeks.

BMR have been very vague about what the money is for that they now say is owed to Blue Square. Blue Square appear to have no trading history to speak of, but it is suggested that they helped in someway to get the licence back, and that their services are required on an ongoing basis to help with clarifying the conditions. All very suspect to say the least. The only positive thing is that JLP do not appear to be involved, aside from allowing BMR to sell JLP shares to pay this enormous bill.

Lucky we've got no news here this morning. Imagine the panic the 'sell on news' brigade would be having :)

I’d hoped we had got all the possible bad news out of the way, and we were in line for a series of positive updates this year with increasing production and several projects starting. But bmr continues to surprise! It’s no wonder the market didn’t react with great enthusiasm when the deal was first announced. But looking beyond this, it’s more likely now that we could end up with more than 40% at Kabwe. Bmr have weakened themselves by selling an asset (jlp shares) in dubious circumstances, and they still haven’t managed to do a placing to raise working capital. If the plant ends up costing more than £2.3m it’s difficult to see how they’re going to raise their share of the extra.

Wasn’t there an article the other day suggesting 3d results around August/September? Or are we expecting some preliminary results before that?

I’ve tried making a stab at guessing the sp at various stages, but so many factors involved to really make an accurate guess, and I’m working on the basis that it’s still going to take a year or two more to see the biggest gains. For this year, I’d see anything from 10-20p as being a good result by the end of the year. The acreage is huge, and around 10 wells has been mentioned before to prove up the whole area. Results from ice2 will go a long way, but then 3d results and farm outs for the conventional should then enable the bigger prize to be valued. Add to that Yukon gold, which is a little bit of an unknown at the moment. So, my strategy/expectations currently are a decent enough rise from some good results to derisk with an overall profit, and then be prepared to hold a fair amount for another couple of years if that’s what it takes. Really substantial rises above this year will see that plan go out of the window though!

Would anyone be surprised if blue square end up taking part in the overdue bmr placing? They seem to want to be involved with bmr, and courtesy of some jlp shares being sold they suddenly have a fair bit of spare cash.