Member Info for moneyhawk

Yes agree we could do with some more detailed info on whats expected. All the guesses we make are just based on the information we have and assumptions on what that may mean and what may happen, and very often we don't have all the information.

A CFO producing forecasts could be one way to improve it, and will probably become more necessary if we do get to mid cap and II's start taking up large positions.

In the meantime, they could also commission an independent analyst report or two. The Shard note was very good and contained a lot of information we've been speculating on. But they are our corporate broker. An independent analyst also arriving at much the same conclusions (assuming that's what would happen!) could create some more confidence in the strategy and earnings potential.

Based on the forecasted figures for 2021 in the shard brokers note, that seems quite achievable on a realistic P/E of about 6-7. Question now is whether we can reach that kind of valuation based on anticipation of future earnings, or if we'll have to wait for actual earnings in interims/annual figures.

Could go either way imo, but plenty of examples out there of companies that have rerated before big earnings increases have hit the books.

looking like we could be back on track.

I agree, it would seem probable that small PIs hold the majority of shares, and it wouldn't be a straightforward matter of negotiating an acceptable price with a small number of large holders. Any takeover offer would therefore have to be good enough to get the majority of us PIs to sell, and all will have varying expectations on what would be a reasonable offer, including DW.

In this kind of situation a hostile takeover would perhaps be more likely where the purchaser tries to buy up a controlling stake on the open market. But as soon as someone started to do that it could send the SP through the roof. They'd never be able to buy the company at anywhere near the current MCAP, and still no guarantee they'd actually be able to complete a full takeover.

So although some people would question why a farmee would commit to such large expenditure on just a farmout deal as opposed to buying us out, it would make more sense to someone who wanted access to our resource and less risk involved for them. Its a case of spend maybe a few hundred $m to prove up and gain a majority stake in the resource, or spend a lot more to gain 100% of a resource that has still to be proved commercial.

We have been updated with what is happening, there's no failure to report imo.

The last update told us that they are in confidential negotiations. The word 'confidential' gives quite a strong clue as to why we have not had step by step progress reports of what is being negotiated.

I really think that some peoples expectations of what should be publicly disclosed are a little unrealistic

Lets hope so. MMs have just taken on 30m+ shares at 3p. We only edged past 3p on friday, and trades higher than 3p since then aren't anywhere near enough for most of those shares to have been forward sold into the rise. So either MMs will be making a loss on a lot of shares, or this price is going to hold before going back up. Which is more likely?

Possibly BMR. Working on the assumption that they're already out, but its impossible to be certain.

Quite possible that another large holder sold some of their previous holding just prior to the placing and were responsible for that 17m share trade the day before the placing. That would mean that BMR still held some.

May just be someone else who took part in the placing and didn't take over 3% is now getting out for a quick profit.

I suppose doesn't really matter too much who it is. If we've got someone who holds a lot of shares and doesn't want to hold for longer term gains, better to get them out of the way now.

Those are some large trades, around 30m sold just before 9.30am. Might explain the drop this morning, but considering the size of the sells, a very small fall, and good sign that there's plenty of buying pressure that should push us up again to higher levels.

Yes, Q2 will be a lot better. Not only Hernic up to full production, but DCM ramping up and possibly a small input from Platcro PGMs.

Q3 will be better still, with a full quarter of Platcro PGMs adding to the figures.

Q4 could then be the start of Kabwe production coming on, with Zinc and Vanadium in the first phase.

Its been a long time now since we didn't have an increase in earnings each quarter, and its a trend that's shaping up nicely to become bigger and bigger quarterly increases for quite a while.

34Deg, I think it was only made available to Shard clients, as with the first one, which took a few weeks to appear on the JLP website. Hopefully the rest of us will get to see it soon

Good to see the momentum continuing.

Agree with Sumo on the quarterly figures, not expecting these to be as good as they could have been due to the power outages (affecting many, not just us).

But still think that we'll see a decent uplift from Q4, and yet another quarter in a row of earnings growth.

From the RNS on 20th March, we know earnings for Jan & Feb are £2m from Hernic and Platcro Chrome. So we've got an extra month to add in, plus earnings from DCM if its now operating at a decent capacity.

That will hopefully give earnings for Q1 from current operations in the region of £3m compared to £2.17m for Q4, or approx 40% increase. Possibly higher depending on how much Hernic was affected by power issues in March and ramp up at DCM.

Are you talking about the same LMI (Lonmin) that have lost £B's over the last few years, are desperate to be taken over, and are only at 80p now because of a 100-1 share consolidation a few years ago? (After they were forced into a massive rights issue at 1p).

They may have once been the kind of company that would have been in a position to take over any small miner they wanted, but they've fallen a long way since then.

Would be good if we can finish the week above 3p, didn't even consider the possibility of that at the start of the week. But appears that the market is starting to wake up to the potential here, and a good case to say that we're still really undervalued.

Looks like we might do it this time, on the move again

eyesblue, the TR1 for the 9% holding was released after the market closed, so SP going down isn't connected. The SP went up about 20% in 2 days and it looks there's a bit of a pause now before the next push up, but overall we're well up on the week.

It can't be announced at the AGM without telling the market first. I would expect most votes to be cast in advance of the AGM, after all its an Australian company with the AGM in Perth, but most of the shares are traded in London. It would be a daft to deliberately break market listing rules, and ignore where shareholders are and how votes are going to be cast.

9% holding, he's certainly confident!

Well we know that Q1 earnings should be a decent increase from Q4, and will hopefully keep this positive momentum going. Jan & Feb earnings from Hernic and Platcro more or less match Q4s earnings, and thats with Hernic under performing due to the January delay and power cuts, and not including any earnings from DCM. So we've got earnings for March and earnings from DCM to add in to what we already know.

Q2 should then be a further increase to earnings, with Hernic back to full production for the quarter and ramp up at DCM. I suspect now that we're not going to see any earnings from Platcro PGMs until Q3, but then that sets us up nicely for another quarter in a row with decent earnings increases. Q4 will hopefully see Kabwe starting production, so all in all, its lining up to be a good year ahead.

Up about 20% in 2 days, so not surprising really that we're stopping for a bit of a breather before the next push up.

Brom, unfortunately those facts don't sit well with the narrative some people choose to keep repeating when they complain about the audacity of the MD to get paid for the job he's employed to do.