Member Info for moneyhawk

The only thing that seems completely certain Kalan is that GLR will have another placing sooner or later. Personally I don't see that as such a bad thing. Now that there looks to be an easy route that will generate them earnings without huge expense, a placing to fund that would beneficial and add value imo.

In the meantime we can just get on with processing the kabwe tailings while GLR sort out getting extra material that could be put through sable.

Vanadium is being priortised in the first stage. Initially the plant will produce Vanadium Pentoxide and Zinc Concentrate, and second stage will be to produce Zinc Metal and Lead concentrate, along with the Vanadium. So it wouldn't be that beneficial to introduce ore that doesn't contain V until the second stage.

Another factor is that we don't really know the relationship between Kabwe and Sable. Maybe BMR did agree terms with GLR to take the star zinc material to process at Kabwe, and that's transferred to us with the Kabwe JV company.

But if as we suspect Sable has been purchased by JLP outside of the JV company, then Kabwe won't have any processing facilities itself, and any contractual obligations on the JV company will be pretty meaningless.

Plumbus, CB says a lot of things. What's in the official news via RNS's is more reliable. The GLR RNS said

"early- stage discussions have started with potential off-take partners"

No mention of a done deal or contractual obligations. I'm not saying we won't be taking the GLR material to process at Sable, it appears to make a lot of sense if the material is suitable and we can earn from it. But I don't think its as certain as CB has made it out to be, and past experience in JLP says CB's timescales should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The licence for GLR/starzinc looks to be a major stumbling block to me, and CB is being overly optimistic about the time scales. Not for the first time either! How many times did we hear the Tjate licence was going to be issued soon? And we're still waiting on the DCM PGM permission. Different country I know, but then it also took quite a while for the Kabwe licence to be restored, and GLR haven't even submitted the licence application as far as I know.

Don't know Sumo, they had seemed to become reliable with getting the quarterly figures out around 2.5 weeks after the end of the quarter. This set of figures will differ though, as we have our new platcro acquisition to feed in, and maybe it just takes longer there to receive the final results for what has been produced and sold during the quarter.

Hopefully that's all it is, and I can't imagine why they would want to deliberately delay the quarterlies. It looks like we've already had the bad news, that Hernic has underperformed for the quarter due to a slow post Christmas restart the SA power supply problems earlier in the year.

Looked again at the Shard note, and they do not make any reference to JLP being contractually obliged to take Star Zinc material, in fact no references at all to Star Zinc or processing any other material to the kabwe tailings. So have to assume that their projections of £41m net profit a year in a couple of years time is not including processing additional material.

So doesn't seem to matter either way if GLR start producing or not, or whether we have to take their material.

http://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Shard-Capital-Jubilee-Metals-March-2019.pdf

Doesn't make a lot of sense with the 20th April being Saturday.

Good summary Kalan. GLR is starting look more attractive imo, but only if they can start digging up material and truck it over to kabwe, and then there's no indication of what kind of profit margins would be achieved by GLR after JLP have taken our cut. I'm not really convinced its going to be as quick and easy as CB is making it out to be, and I'm not convinced that we need the material as much as CB is suggesting. Our forecasts are showing a drop in zinc production in a couple of years due to processing a different tailings pile with lower grades, and that would seem to be the right time to bring in more zinc rich material, not right at the beginning when its not needed.

The GLR placing was only to develop a mining plan, apply for the licence and provide working capital. It would be really surprising if GLR can get the licence sorted out in a few months, and then there's the small matter of funding the operation until revenue starts to come in.

But at the current Mcap, I'm thinking it could be worth a punt soon, not much more than a shell company valuation really.

Who knows, could have another strangely timed update just before the market closes, wait to the end of the month, or somewhere in between.

Pretty low volume for 'leaked news' rosewall. Can't imagine our major new investors would be very pleased if someone who holds a few hundred thousand shares is given the heads up on news before them and everyone else.

I still think that quarterlies could be with us sometime today. Recent record here is that quarterlies are rarely released at 7am, and the most common date for release is the 17th, so still looks good for today.

I do wonder if GLR will ever mine Star Zinc, bring in someone else as a partner or just sell off if they can. Looking at the MCap, doubtful they'll be able to raise the funds to do it themselves, and must be fairly low on cash now to be doing a £500k placing to include working capital.

You'd have thought that we'd be the off take partner. The Shard note forecasted a drop in Zinc production in 2022 with lower zinc grades in the tailings we'll be processing at that point, so this could help increase production.

But will a deal be with the Kabwe JV project, or with Sable? The difference could be worth quite a bit to us.

Perhaps nothing to get too excited about yet though, the placing doesn't enable them to go into production. £500k for working capital, resource estimates, pit design and mining permits isn't going to go that far.

3 of the last 4 quarterly updates have come on the 17th of the month, with Q1 last year coming on Tues 17th April. So tomorrow looks a good possibility for the Q1 update.

Maybe there are a few selling pre news 'just in case', and are happy with the gain they've made in the last few weeks.

Brom, your assumption on that would make sense.

But I wonder what the farmee would gain from doing that? Would be additional cost to drill deeper than necessary to gather data on a resource that isn't part of the farmout.

Answers to that may start to become more apparent when we know who the farmee is and what are the terms of the deal.

Looks to me that we have more than enough cash to fund commitments for the rest of this year and going into next year as it stands at the moment, and without any farm outs.

Need to bear in mind that at the moment we are not planning to drill again ourselves, and all future drilling will be a result of a farmout. Including Yukon Gold it would seem.

So depending on the farm out terms for Icewine conventional, HRZ and Yukon, we may not have significant expenditure for quite some time if we get free carries on all of them as part of the deals.

Cash could be coming in from 3 Farmouts and tax credits long before we're out of funds to cover ongoing costs, so risk of further dilution in the short term doesn't appear to be huge.

A lot of 'ifs' on things that aren't yet known, but a good chance that it's going to work out very well imo.

Thanks for posting up. Interesting statement from LC

"we are fully funded for the launch and development of our next three projects, two of which are coming on line in the next four months, and the last massive project in Zambia fully funded to come on stream in August of this year"

Platcro PGMs would be one project, Kabwe the zambia project, so whats the 3rd project he's saying is fully funded and coming on line in the next 4 months? Platcro Chrome and DCM fine chrome are already up and running, can't really say they're due to come online in the next 4 months.

And Kabwe coming on stream in August? I am thinking December will be the earliest based on time scales they've given us so far.

Unless he's treating Sable as a separate project, with the production of sulphuric acid to sell to Glencore being a project to come online?

Sorry as well to hear that news brom.

On 88e, I had thought today was most likely for FO news to be in time for the AGM. Looking unlikely now unless its going to be wrapped up over the weekend, which is probably also unlikely.

And no price movement would suggest no news by this point has already been priced in.

Looking on the bright side though, no news also means that negotiations are still on going and the deal hasn't fallen through after several weeks of talks. Surely a good sign as if there was no chance of both sides agreeing terms they would have already worked that out by now, and wouldn't be persisting with talks that are going nowhere.

I think that was probably the case when we had Hernic as our main earner to base future assumptions on, and you can see why LC would want to keep that earnings split under wraps as long as possible. It was our first big project when we still had to prove ourselves, so they probably had no choice to agree those terms to get the project. But if that had been known, would we have got a revised deal at DCM for 50% of chrome plus all PGMs, and would Northam have have agreed to a deal giving us the majority of Platcro PGM earnings?

But now we've proved ourselves with producing PGMs for under $400 oz, and have substantial earnings growth in Kabwe, we should now have a much stronger negotiating position. So having more details disclosed on profitability and earnings splits on future projects shouldn't be such a problem.