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Interesting summery of farm out deals over the past 5 years:

https://www.westwoodenergy.com/news/westwood-insight/frontier-success-sparks-the-exploration-farm-out-market-into-life/

News surely has to be coming soon, LC was talking about Q1 being an exceptional quarter in the presentation so it would be even more strange not to release an update. Been a suggestion the delay is due to auditors taking a closer look at the figures now we're into a strong earnings growth phase, which would make some sense.

But now into the 2nd week of May, that quarterly update could possibly now include an indication for Aprils figures as well. If Hernic was back on track in April I can understand why LC would want to delay it, so he can demonstrate that it really was just a temporary blip in Jan/Feb due to reasons he's already explained. Also possible we could get confirmation PGM recovery has started at Northam.

Another rise like Friday's 20% will see us sailing past the 4p mark, could be achievable next week.

But 54p will need a 1400% rise and give a MCAP of about £1b, so in the short term perhaps an outside bet! Longer term it could be possible, but it'd need at least another major project or two to get the earnings to justify that kind of valuation. Pretty unusual to see miners with a P/E in double digits at the moment, even for the ones that give a decent dividend yield.

So the next deal could be very important for future valuations if its got great earnings potential.

Yes I also suspect the 3,000 tonnes per month processing capacity is referring to the output rather than the input. Annual production is projected at a combined 24,500 tonnes of lead, zinc and vanadium. In theory 3,000 tonnes output capacity would produce 36,000 tonnes. But no plant is going to be able to run continuously 24/7 all year, and probably won't be run at absolute max capacity for sustained periods either.

His comments of a 10 year life span on the tailings project is also a bit puzzling. Approx 87,600 hours in 10 years (give or take a few for leap years). Means that an average of 73 tonnes have to be processed every hour 24/7 for 10 years to get through 6.4m tonnes, when we know the max input capacity is targeted at 40 tonnes per hour.

So possibilities could include:
1. The tailings will be pre-processed in some manner prior to going to the refinery, meaning where the refinery processes at 20/40 t/p/h, it actually represents a much large tonnage of the initial tailings, or
2. Not all of the 6.4m tonnes is of good enough grades to be processed

The big hints over the past year or so for possible future targets have included copper/cobalt and kitwe. ERG fits the bill for both of those, but so do others, although ERG are also one of the companies listed as having a framework agreement with us. Re future valuations, worth considering the broker forecast for net profits of £41m in 2021 and apply a P/E of about 6-7 for the potential value here.

A deal for tjate would be a major surprise, but maybe it’s just that another large chunk of shares is now accounted for. Dates don’t match, but you’d have thought the quantity in today’s tr1 must have come from the placing, directly or indirectly.

And what % of shares do you think they would get from people willing to sell at a 70% premium to todays price?

Someone could offer it, but I doubt they'd get enough people accepting the offer to force a takeover.

Date threshold crossed - 9th April

105,122,381 shares (5.6%)

That took a bit of time to get the notification!

Maybe its just someone who doesn't want to be out over the weekend, lol

Yes, decent amount of buying first thing from the looks of it.

FWIW, I also think that a deal will go ahead to take star zinc ore, and in the long run is a good option. But I don't believe they will be ready at star zinc until later next year at the earliest. Even if everything goes smoothly, they haven't applied for the mining licence yet, and CB doesn't exactly have a good recent record in getting licences quickly! (tjate and DCM for starters).

Kalan, 'if' that were to happen, I think GLR would find that they've lost the paddle that they will need.

Bring, that could be the case, but don't think anyone can say with certainty either way until its clarified. Experience with JLP 'clarity' says we'll probably have to wait for some finance results to work out just what the deal is.

The thing that first started the doubt on the structure of the project was our interims, which referred to the royalty being 12.5% with no mention of it being reduced to 11% (released after the Sable acquisition).

And then you have to consider that we don't yet own 100% of the kabwe project or JV company, so would we really be making an acquisition costing us 1/3 dilution and then putting that into a company we don't fully own?

Seeing the fall on GLR it certainly looks bargain territory now, well below the placing price. Maybe a good time to buy, maybe not?

But been looking at their RNS's and it perhaps give some answers on Sable and how the Kabwe project is to be run:

31 Aug 2017: "concurrent with execution of the joint venture agreement, BMR and Enviro Zambia shall enter into an off take agreement for processing of ore from Star Zinc at Kabwe, such terms to be determined as soon as reasonably practicable following completion of the PEA to reflect capacity production of Zinc from Star Zinc, and relevant grade and resource life of the project set out in PEA, which ore BMR intends to process in conjunction with its Leach Plant Residues."

15 October 2018: "When the Company entered into the Term Sheet agreement to acquire Star Zinc (31 August 2017), it undertook that on proven success it would provide ore feed for the Kabwe zinc project. An offtake agreement to this effect is under discussion and negotiation"

1 May 2019: "Jubilee's acquisition of the Sable refinery (the "Refinery") enables negotiations to commence with JMG for an off-take agreement to supply ore mined from Star Zinc"

So why then was yesterdays RNS from GLR necessary, and why does our acquisition of Sable result in enabling off take negotiations, when those negotiations had apparently already started?

To me it would appear that the contractual obligations CB talks about are between GLR and BMR (so possibly also the JV company), but not JLP or Sable. Hence negotiations have had to start again, and the Star Zinc ore will be processed by JLP at Sable, and the JV company with BMR won't be involved.

Just had a look over on ii, and ToT reports that "the delay is down to the auditors taking a closer interest into the timing of the booking of costs and sales now that the company is in significant growth mode."

This sounds like the most credible explanation so far, hopefully he's been given actuate info as it bodes well for the future if figures are going to be scrutinised more closely before being released.

He also believes LC is in London at the moment for talks. More good news on the way soon?

Lets hope so 34Deg. There'd be little point in them delaying/cancelling the quarterly figures to try and hide disappointing results, it will come out eventually as they can't avoid the annual results. Besides, we already know Q1 will have partly disappointing results with hernic production down from Q4.

Bank holiday in Australia as well isn't it?

I guess its possible Neverlearn, the longer this takes. the closer it comes to the planned HRZ farmout period.

Although the indications at the moment look to be that the two will be separate farmouts, not a combined farmout. Another possibility along the same lines could be the conventional farmee wants an Exclusivity Agreement on the HRZ farmout if the Baker Hughes analysis is favorable, which must be ready by now/soon.

Bring, I'm really not sure about that anymore. Its the JV company that would be paying BMR the royalty/profit share, not JLP.

When we purchased Sable there was no mention of the JV company being involved, it all all rather sounds like Sable has been purchased solely by JLP as a standalone entity to be owned 100% by JLP. The other clue is that there has been no mention of the 12.5% being reduced to 11% as it should do with the amount of investment involved. At first I thought that's because the refinery payment is staged, so we haven't incurred that cost yet, but I think more likely now because the JV company isn't incurring the level of expenditure to affect the royalty.

Visitor, your numbers for kabwe roughly match other guesses a couple of us have made. Although at this stage its only that, just guess work. LC has previously said we can expect to see similar profit margins to Hernic PGMs, so that would be around the 40% mark, and would be great if we can achieve that.

One part I'm not so sure about though is the Kabwe JV company and how much of the revenue/earnings will now be attributable to it. I rather suspect the purchase of Sable has changed matters, and the Kabwe JV company will be paying us for processing the tailings through Sable, either through a toll processing agreement, profit share or similar. Result of that would mean that less of the overall earnings would be subject to the royalty/profit share due to BMR.

Could be likely that both GLR and the Kabwe JV will get a very similar deal from us for using the Sable refinery.