Member Info for moneyhawk

9.28 - I took as meaning the same. DW said in the interview that it looks like they're going to be pretty close to hitting the end of Q1 deadline (if it goes ahead). This wasn't saying it will be finalised this week. Close to the end of Q1 can also mean after the end of Q1. But in any event, I think an announcement will be made before the AGM on 15th April.

Shown on page 13 of the broker note - PGMs from Platcro Project 2 starting production in 2021.

A possibility we'll be building a PGM plant at Platcro rather than trucking tailings to Eland. It would make sense now that we own the chrome operation there.

Looks more likely the otto trading halt is to do with the alkaid well and GB/PANR than Icewine, (and it might not even be in Alaska). The amount they could raise would maybe pay for one well, or two if costs are going to be split. That's not really the scale of farmin we're looking for.

Unless its another possibility, and we have a consortium farmin where otto are taking a small stake?

But since they've asked for a trading halt until Friday pending an announcement, wouldn't we expect to also be on a trading halt on ASX if it was to do with us?

Thanks for the heads up, good spot. I'd given up checking the brokers notes on the JLP website since they hadn't been updated for a couple of years!

http://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Shard-Capital-Jubilee-Metals-March-2019.pdf

Many discussion points in the note. But agree with Weebles assessment on the adjustments to the valuation to take into account the extra dilution they didn't expect.

The financial forecasts on page 21 are very encouraging, going from break even this year to Net Profit of £41m in 2 years (inc revenue of £200m and GP of £95m). That Net Profit in 2 years is equal to our new Mcap once the new shares come in tomorrow at the current SP.

Although I'd assume that the majority of that revenue and earnings increase is going to be the effect of Kabwe coming on line and ramping up. So the valuation of Kabwe at £74m would appear to be rather low to me.

Guzzler, what would be the point of signing an exclusivity agreement at this stage? We're in negotiations with a preferred bidder, its a matter of weeks away (perhaps just days now). How would an exclusivity agreement tell us anymore than we already know?

In the 12 months prior to the sable news the total volume was about 550m shares. I can't believe anyone taking part in an £11m placing for 500m shares would not be aware of this. There is pretty much zero chance of a quick turn around by selling those placing shares for a profit in the next few months.

Maybe some will get sold quickly, but the most likely scenario is that whoever has taken part in the placing will have the intention of holding for the majority for the medium-long term.

looks like we've reached the placing price of 2.25p. The bottom perhaps?

Yes the Q1 figures should show that info, probably around the 2nd week in April, and after the interims due end of this week.

Although we already know the Hernic figures are not going to be great and will be a step backwards from Q4, due to shutdown in January post Christmas and power cuts affecting the operation.

We also know that Platcro Chrome will be delivering good figures for Q1, so DCM will be of more interest as we've got no info for what that will show. Recent quarters have been negative earnings there, so positive earnings at any level during the first 3 months of the fine chrome ramping up will be a good step forward.

Don't really see why this is being taken as such good news for RMP. We knew the plan already, and it only confirms what was suspected about their cash position. i.e. RMP don't have enough cash to participate in another drill as things stand at the moment. Their previous share was $5.25m and an by the time we get to the next drilling season they will have used up some of their current cash.

Good analogy there Brom :)

I should think they'll be wanting to stock up on shares over the next few days. Whether or not farmout news comes before the end of this week, that news will be coming soon.

DW didn't give an indication as to when we reached the preferred bidder stage, we could already be a week or two into the negotiations. He did say in the interview that the deal could be close to meeting the end of Q1 target, so I take that as meaning a possibility it will going beyond the end of the month, but it won't be far off if it does. AGM on the 15th looks to be the key date here, so news by Friday 12th April at the latest is my guess, but hopefully sooner.

I would rather see a large share buy back program than consolidation. Consolidation would do nothing increase the value of all our investments. Share buy backs would start to reverse the effects of all the dilution we've had.

Yes thats a polite way of putting it TBTT! CB may not be perfect and we've had a few false starts here, but compared to those two he is truly wonderful and doing an amazing job.

There's no immediate rush to sort out the royalty though. Its only payable once we've recovered our costs plus 20%. So thats $24m + 20% = approx $29m profit has to be made by us before any royalty is payable. With an 8 month lead time until first production and then a 2 year ramp up period, it might not be until the end of next year or even early 2021 to see that level of profit.

TBTT, I've roughly calculated it before using BMR's figures for whats in the tailings, which are:

Zinc 356,843 tonnes
Lead 351,386 tonnes
Vanadium 45,000 tonnes

Updating to current prices and assuming 30% profit margin would give a rough NPV of $979M.

Links to BMR info below:
http://www.bmrplc.com/tailings_stockpiles.php
http://www.bmrplc.com/announcements/20012017%20%20Vanadium%20Update.pdf

There's a very simple consideration when comparing Tjate to Kabwe.

Tjate will cost $100's millions to develop as a mine and extract the NPV there. That's money which we don't have, can't raise or borrow, and unlikely anyone who does have that kind of finance available will commit to such a project in the foreseeable future.

Kabwe on the other hand is now fully funded with an approximate 8 month time frame to start first metal production, and a 2 year ramp up period to full production. At full production could be in the region of $100m+ a year revenue for many years to come. Its no longer a matter of 'if' it will happen, it is happening.

If we get TR1 notifications after 28th March showing who's taken part in the placing that could have a big impact. A small number of investors making a sizable investment would be a good vote of confidence. A large number each taking a small stake so as not to cross the 3% threshold wouldn't be a massive problem, but will leave uncertainty on who's got the shares and what their intention is.

The actual recoverable metal may depend on which tailings stockpile is being processed, there's lots of different piles with varying quantities of metals. The initial figures may have been based on one stockpile, and figures yesterday are an estimated average for everything after further testing. Not really enough information to make an informed guess at the moment. But whatever is recoverable it's going to be significant quantities over a long period.

Re the price of vanadium, I've been using Vanadium Pentoxide (V2O5) prices which is what JLP are to be producing, and which is lower than Ferro Vanadium, at $16 lb compared to $70 lb. Both had significant spikes late last year but look to have settled down now. At $16 lb that works out to $35,000 a tonne, producing 1,500 tonnes a year is a pretty significant sum.

There's no way the placing shares announced today have been forward sold. Looking back over the past year, the total volume for those 12 months is about 550m shares. That includes BMR selling. If someone was trying to sell an extra 500m shares we'd know about it, its too large an amount to hide away in small trades.

Yes quite often we see the SP dropping to the placing price. May still happen in the next few trading days, who knows. Although we've just gone through a very quiet period of no news for months and plenty of uncertainty, but our SP has hardly moved, which is also unusual on AIM. So there does seem to be a fairly solid base now that we'll hopefully be building from.

Two acquisitions in 3 months, one generating higher than expected earnings from the start, and the 2nd could be leading to game changing figures, it's really starting to look very positive.