Member Info for moneyhawk

Just noticed, we have a new MM on board.

WIRE - W H Ireland

Its a good question TBTT.

Some thoughts on it, the number involved is very large (to the state obvious!), and represents over 26% of the new share capital. The new shares are due to admitted on 28th March, so we may get an answer a few days after that unless there's 9 or more separate people/entities involved all taking a holding that will be less than 3%.

With the amount involved I'd assume the people investing are fully aware of the low trading volume in JLP that we normally see, often less than 1m shares traded a day. Its taken BMR over a year to sell off 63m shares, and that's a small amount in comparison. So they will also be aware that there's little chance they can sell those shares into the market anytime soon without big SP falls to well below the 2.25p they've paid.

Just on very rough figures today, its very obvious that there are potentially big gains to be made here from holding for the next 2 years or so, and its very achievable even if a few things slip or aren't quite as good as expected. So it would make little sense from an investment point of view to dump the shares quickly, as it could well turn a large potential profit into a loss.

So my guess is that on the balance of probability, the people involved in this placing are investing for the long term.

Have you not read the RNS? The jam jar has arrived, and its a big jar.

Part of the deal includes an "acid supply agreement for the sale of acid produced at the plant by Sable Zinc Kabwe to Glencore until such time as such acid is required for the operations of Sable Zinc Kabwe in the production of saleable products."

Sable apparently has the capacity to produce 100 metric tonnes per day:
http://www.sulphuric-acid.com/sulphuric-acid-on-the-web/acid%20plants/Sable%20Zinc%20Kabwe.htm

This will also reduce BMRs royalty to 11%. In the RNS on 6th Aug 2018:

“the aforementioned Royalty shall be reduced to 11% of earnings in the event that Jubilee's capital investment into the Project exceeds US$Â 15Â million.”

"The Project targets to produce annually over 8 000 tonnes of zinc, 1 500 tonnes of vanadium and 15 000 tonnes of lead as it ramps up to full capacity over a 2-year period."

At current prices:
Zinc at $2875 per tonne = $23m
Lead at $2012 per tonne = $30m
Vanadium at $16 lb = $35,000 per tonne = $52m

Total = $105m revenue a year.

We don't know what kind of profit margin that will be at, but possible in a couple of years earnings will be exceeding our current Mcap.

Highlights

· Consideration for the Sable Zinc refinery is GBP 9.16 million (US$12 million) in stage payments

· The Acquisition reduces the time to build the refinery by some 18 months delivering the first metal within a year from the Acquisition

· Overall project capital to produce first metal is significantly reduced to some GBP18.32 million (US$ 24 million)

· The project will ramp up over a two-year period from 20 tonnes to 40 tonnes per hour producing significant amounts of zinc, vanadium and lead

· Jubilee is financing the Acquisition and ramp up by an equity raising of GBP11.07 million (US$14.5 million) and a secured convertible loan note of GBP6.11 million (US$8 million)

· The Kabwe project is expected to significantly enhance Company earnings on the back of three revenue producing metals

looks like the the system cut off the last part of that, here it is:

.....60-40µm where substantial losses occur for the primary chrome processing industry. This opens up enormous potential for the recovery of fine chrome from the millions of tonnes of historical tailings that are produced by primary platinum producers mining the UG2 reef.

? Upcoming key catalysts. First PGMS from PlatCro (Feb). DCM fine chrome full production(March). Decision on Kabwe development plan and potential refinery acquisition (Q1/Q2 2019). Permits and approvals for PGM production at DCM (2019).

? Valuation. Our current indicative valuation for Jubilee Metals is 6p/sh fully-diluted (unrisked 8.2p) which implies that JLP is trading at an undemanding 0.40x discount to NAV, with an implied return of 2.5x to the current share price. We forecast significant ramp up in revenue and earnings generation from FY20 as JLP executes on its ambitious growth programme.

Jubilee is not likely to remain under the radar for much longer. 2019 will be a pivotal year for the company as it beds down several new projects. We see no other company as well positioned with the resources, expertise and connections to take advantage of the compelling opportunities presented by global mine waste and tailings. JLP now has multiple commodity exposure and is expanding into new jurisdictions beyond South Africa."

34Deg, I can't find that Shard broker note, may be a note to their clients only. A bit disappointing really since they're our corporate broker. A little bit copied from the advfn post, no idea if its genuine, but the level of details would suggest it is:

"? Upcoming key catalysts. First PGMS from PlatCro (Feb). DCM fine chrome full production(March). Decision on Kabwe development plan and potential refinery acquisition (Q1/Q2 2019). Permits and approvals for PGM production at DCM (2019).

? Valuation. Our current indicative valuation for Jubilee Metals is 6p/sh fully-diluted (unrisked 8.2p) which implies that JLP is trading at an undemanding 0.40x discount to NAV, with an implied return of 2.5x to the current share price. We forecast significant ramp up in revenue and earnings generation from FY20 as JLP executes on its ambitious growth programme."

9.03 - Lost 80% of your investment? So you only bought at the very top of a very brief spike in the past 3 years?

We won't get any holdings notification for BMR selling, they dropped below the 3% back in December.

A possibility we might get a notification from whoever's bought those shares, if they've crossed a threshold as a result.

Agree csw12, some very strange posting and views swinging from one extreme to the other over the past 10 days or so.

If it is BMR and a managed sale, expect to see an equal trade popping up for 2.25p or 2.3p sometime soon.

Could be TBTT.

BMR could be desperate for the cash, and LC/CB didn't want to release good news only to see BMR sell on the open market and crash the SP. So have delayed Kabwe updates to force BMR into a prearranged managed sell off of their remaining shares.

Here's hoping anyway!

Very possibly BB, I had estimated that BMR had about 16m shares left from my calculations on the unusual trades earlier this year, so that's not far off.

Massive trade for us, and no impact on the SP, so has to be a managed sale.

I was half expecting a 7am RNS this morning headed "Projects Update Part 2"

Thanks for posting Moda, I think his opinion neatly sums up the reason for some posts we get on here, post copied below:

"Good post, however I disagree from a LT holder's (my) point of view. I believe the board is professional, hard working and going about this methodically and wisely. This is a high risk high failure high reward sector and I'm sure that most of the venom is coming from holders who ignored the risks and invested far too much and got in well over their heads. Strangely, none seem to have accepted any personal blame for their present predicament, so perhaps some are doomed to repeating this type of miscalculated bet over and over again. Nobody complains about the plans beforehand ,but some of the more disingenuous traders/holders are quite toxic in hindsight. Again, wrongly with no acceptance of any personal responsibility. The odds have been against us as they always are in these fresh field drills, but with so many irons in the fire the roulette wheel keeps spinning and I believe that their is a decent chance of one of the irons striking some decent oil (accumulating odds and all that). All in my opinion of course lads."

Yes the absence of details on Kabwe is a bit of a concern, and a mystery why its name isn't even mentioned when the earnings potential eclipses all of our current projects.

But personally I'm not sure it has much/any recognition in the current mcap. I believe the earnings from our current operational projects will support this mcap at a low P/E ratio once they're all up to full speed. So in a worst case scenario Kabwe disappearing may not have a huge effect, but it would remove growth potential as there's nothing else in the pipeline at the moment.

That's unlike you to be positive Sumoskier! Keep it up :)

I would tend to agree Jammer, and the timing of the RNS seems a little strange. (although just before the market closed, not after) Perhaps the interim's are going to be released tomorrow, and so this update has been rushed out before they are released? Or perhaps its information that's been put into the Investor Show presentation and so they needed to get this out now? Not much of an explanation, just the only reasons I can think of.

Platcro chrome does look good though, and at least we now have confirmation that what we've bought is generating earnings. £0.45m a month from those figures, so £5.4m a year at the same rate, which is a lot more than expected and makes the £8m purchase price look even better..

The absence of Kabwe being mentioned is a little annoying for an RNS headed "General Operations and Projects Update". Perhaps a separate update is coming soon?

I think overall we're still on course for Q1 earnings being a decent increase from Q4, but will likely be less than being expected, and now Q2 doesn't look like it'll have any meaningful addition from Platcro PGMs

However, I think they would have been well advised to leave out the line:
"The progress is testimony to the operational excellence and tenacity of the Jubilee team"