Member Info for moneyhawk

JamesAtkins, that's not really what happened, I've looked. The drill you're talking about JOG said this:

"A decision on whether to drill a sidetrack will be taken after evaluation of wireline logs, although at this stage JOG considers this to be unlikely. In the event a sidetrack is not drilled, the well will be plugged and abandoned."
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=JOG&ArticleCode=21we0uy5&ArticleHeadline=Verbier_and_Partridge_Well_Results

What we've been told today is:
"Winx-1 will now be plugged and abandoned."

There is no mention of a possible side track at winx, and never has been. Very different to the JOG example.

No sidetrack happening, the well is being abandoned as per the RNS today headed "Final Report"

Taking the time to consider the actual impact on us, the cost to us is less than perhaps people are assuming.

The total cost to us at the start was estimated at $6.4m. This included our share of a $3m performance bond ($1.2m), refundable if the well was drilled by 30th May. That's happened, so our share is reduced to $5.2m after the refund comes in.

Abandoning the well early and not staying into April for flow testing has probably reduced the costs. I've no idea by how much, but assuming it puts our cost at less than $5m. Converting to £'s, puts our costs at under £3.8m.

Also considering what Winx would have resulted in after a successful flow test, possibilities could have included a sale or going into production. A sale would not have happened overnight, could have taken many months, if not years to find someone who wanted to buy it and negotiate the price. Going into production would have cost a large amount of cash which we don't have, and probably have taken 4+ years.

And I just don't see how this effects the farm out negotiations. Any oil company with the resources to develop Icewine will have had their fair share of unsuccessful wells, and will be fully aware that not every well is successful no matter how good the data is. This result today will not be anything unusual to them. As some of the oil experts have said here before, if the oil industry knew exactly where to drill they wouldn't bother with test wells.

The biggest impact therefore is on investors confidence, not financial, and not reputation with other oil companies.

So net result is we've not gained anything, but at the most we've lost £3.8m on it.

All things considered, today is a disappointment, but not a complete disaster that's going to ruin us.

6 month interim results (up to Dec 2018) due by the end of the month. Q1 update (Jan to Mar) expected sometime in April.

3Card, the police wouldn't get involved in a libel case as its a civil matter which would require Borelli to sue for damages. Harassment on the other hand is a criminal matter that the Police can take action on.

Toobs, how did you get on with your broker and the price for 22m shares?

A big factor that we don't know is how the news was coordinated between all 4 partners. Was the news on the 1st March a DW announcement, and following the big drops in SP for all the companies, were the later announcements a consortium effort to portray a positive story despite DW's initial reservations?

The RNS does say:

"An update will be provided on the broader Alaska project portfolio in the near term.”

Also remember the AGM has been called for 15th April. I suspect DW will want some good news to be released before then.

Not the news I was hoping to wake up to this morning, a successful flow test would have been a great outcome for us.

However, I'm trying to remind myself of the key factors here:
* We still have Icewine conventional and unconventional, and Yukon.
* Winx is only a very small part of our conventional portfolio (around 5%). Plus we have the HRZ on top.
* I never believed that the Farmout was connected to Winx, so I'm hoping that really is the case
* I've previously told other posters I'm not going to RMP because of the risk of all hopes pinned on one exploratory well. A success would have seen greater gains, but that higher risk is now very obvious.
* In terms of the HRZ, we have never had seriously negative news that its not possible for oil to flow from it like this one today, only that we haven't cracked it yet.

I think winx is unlikely to be connected to the farmout delay. When DW extended the timeframe to Q1 he would have already known that the final winx flow test results & analysis would likely be after the end of Q1. If the two were connected, we'd have had an H1 extension rather than Q1.

Not really a huge drop to get concerned about is it? We're talking about 5 one hundredths of a penny.

I don't believe there is any information leaking, and if there was I think we'd see a much bigger change than that!

Until we've got news of the farmout terms its a bit difficult to predict a possible valuation. A lot depends on how much cash (of any) we get, whether we're on a free carry or not, and what the forward plan is for the acreage.

Has disappeared again, hopefully permanently this time.

Easy WAa, don't want all my shareholder funds being spent on champagne and caviar before we've even got some oil flowing! lol

I'm struggling to find the logic in this thread. I'm on here most days at the moment, and frequently see regular posters displaying balanced views, sharing opinions and advising that nothing is guaranteed.

Its clear that most regular posters have positive views and believe that there is a good opportunity here. Which rather makes sense to me, as why on earth would someone invest in something that they don't believe in and then spend a lot of time posting about what a bad investment decision they have made.

Agree Garrym, its just a fake account with no actual news. The last time this account posted 'news' we had the official announcement the following day that led to big falls for all the companies concerned.

Interesting that tweet has disappeared from the account.

Mcmac makes a good point, if you really believed what you said then surely you'd be selling now at a loss rather than holding on for a bigger loss that you are suggesting is coming.

No news at this stage is frustrating, but not a reason to panic. I'm looking forward to the quarterlies to see Hernic's figures at or near target production, initial fine chrome production at DCM and Platcro chrome.

All we know for certain about the farmout is whats in the official news from 88e, and this bit from the annual report gives an indication of whats happening:

"The level of interest and the quality of parties in the Project Icewine Conventional farm-out data-room was highly encouraging, with 88 Energy deciding in December 2018 to honour requests for an extension to the year-end deadline in order to maximise the number of bid ready parties, whilst also remaining within the logistical schedule necessary to drill multiple wells in the 2020 operating season."

That's a long way from suggesting that they're struggling to find anyone interested.

Agree with that timescale sprintman, Monday at the earliest to know the full results/decision from the 10 day program. Although we have at least 1 update a week since the start of operations at Winx, and nothing so far this week, so maybe we'll get told something before the week is over.

It looks like he has been given the opportunity to do his own research before posting again.

8.16 - I hope it isn't someone 'in the know'. That would not be good news.

Its far more likely that its someone who has read recent the announcements and has concluded there's a good chance of success here.