Member Info for moneyhawk

I've been thinking for a while that the AGM date wouldn't be set until DW was certain he'd have good news to be talking about by the time of the AGM.

Its too soon to be completely certain Winx will flow at a decent rate. So that leaves the Farmout. Good chance its all been agreed and just a matter of days now until the announcement if I'm right. Just my opinion of course, good luck all.

Yes its funny how volume is irrelevant, yet when we have high volume we seem to end up with big % SP changes, and with low volume we see no or little change.

11.28 - Because a 10 day program is taking place, which started on the 6th. Due to finish on Friday 15th, meaning we might not be told of the results from this until next Monday or later. But may get some news in between.

RMP appear to be up more than they actually are because of an uncrossing trade at close on Friday for 4.72p. We've seen it before on our SP, but normally the other way around.

Phrontist, you need to take into account that following the farmouts our net oil will be reduced as we will be giving away a large part of it to our new partner in exchange for them funding the exploration. So we might only have 25-30% of what we've currently got after that happens.

Currently Icewine conventional and HRZ estimates stand at 3B to 4.2B. After both the farmouts we may be looking at 0.75B to 1.25B for Icewine.

Using your figure of a $5 value per barrel, this will give a value of only $3.75B to $6.25B. 'only'! LOL

Also worth remembering 2 things. 1. We need to prove the oil is there and those estimates are recoverable reserves, and 2. those estimates above may increase when the remaining 75% of the acreage is covered by 3D. A lot extra was found last year when 25% of the acreage was covered.

I'm not entirely sure that the intention is to buy sable. The phase CB/LC used was 'access to a refinery'. Could mean anything, maybe buying it, maybe a lease agreement where we take over the operation, maybe a similar deal to Northam/Eland where Glencore reopen and operate and we provide the material to go through.

Think it might just be ASX catching up with the LSE price. The two markets look to be on roughly the same price now after exchange rate conversions. Same for RMP. Although expecting them to appear to be up on opening, but that will only because of an uncrossing trade after close on Friday. May get a few people excited over there.

Sounds like a pretty obnoxious numpty. Calls himself a professional shorter, and appears he has lots of previous on inventing false information from some of the twitter comments being made.

No, please lets not start on different types of averages, my head is already hurting from constantly thinking about the numerous time zones involved in all of this!

But in terms of the figure being used, Otto, 88E and PANR are all using the same term, and all 4 are using the same estimate figure. Otto carried out the technical evaluation, 88e are the operator, and PANR hold the leases. The issue with RMP using a different description for the estimate doesn't really mean much. They won't have any different data to the other 3 have haven't actually done anything other than join the consortium and pay some cash in.

Was just about to post the same thing Spinefx!

See page 14 of the PANR Jan 2019 presentation:
http://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/597-agm-presentation-2019/file

88e, PANR and Otto all describe it as a 400MMbbl 'best estimate' in their RNS/announcements and presentations. Only RMP are describing it as 'gross mean' from what I can see.

Well i think volume is very relevant, and volume, news and price movements are all interconnected. Volume gives an indication of the interest there is in the share. We could get great news, but if no one wants to buy then the price isn't going to move. The more buying vs selling that takes place, the greater the upwards movement. Same applies to bad news and downward movements of course.

Interesting stuff here, especially about the farm outs on page 6.

But this article does read like the journalist has just picked up company announcements, and then pieced those together to create an article, and hasn't actually spoken to 88E. So some leeway needs to be given on the accuracy as its not official company news, and could be incorrectly interpreted/reported by the journalist.

Conventional Farmout:

"The Project Icewine conventional portfolio farm out campaign started in mid-2018 with a data room opening. 88E said it expected to announce a new partner in the first half of 2019"

Suggests that H1 is the expectation for an announcement, meaning it might go beyond the end of this month.

Unconventional Farm out:

"88E launched a farm-out process in third quarter 2018 that is expected to yield announcement of a third partner to fund a work program for unconventional oil and gas by the end of third quarter 2019."

HRZ farm out does appear to be underway if this is correct, with an announcement expected by end of Q3.

Excellent prediction staycalm, I think you may be spot on with that one :)

Don't forget about Yukon either, very intriguing that someone else has already carried out a 3D survey over it, and before we've even got the full results from our own 3D. That could be the real Ace up our sleeves here.

All important LeM, but FO most important in my view. Winx flowtest on its own won't enable much of a forward plan to be developed. The FO on the other hand does, and gives some certainty on how a major part of our potential is going to be progressed.

12.20 - have you been on twitter for that 'information', lol

Very difficult to say with any certainty how many JLP shares BMR still hold.

Sticking to the facts, the last notification on the 18th Dec (when they dropped below the 3% threshold) it was 31,152,693 shares.

I believe that BMR most likely now hold 16,092,586 JLP shares, but I don't believe all of the shares BMR have disposed of have been sold into the market yet, and there will be some sitting with a broker waiting to be sold into the market.

My reason for this is below.

A number of trades after the last TR1 were unusual in that they were matched trades, with two identical trades after hours at different prices, and the number of shares involved also matching a number of other flagged trades during the day. On each occasion one of the matching trades was at 2.25p or 2.3p, being way below the BID at the time and not having any impact on the SP. This indicated that it could be a managed sell off, and I've tallied up the totals.

The last unusual trade at 2.25p was on 22nd Jan for 9,946,599 shares. This had no impact on the SP despite the trading volume not supporting that number of shares being sold, and there were no matched trades to go with it. I am of the view that a proportion of those shares have not been sold into the market yet. How many are left from that trade I do not know.

Faily simple case of deduction toobs. We know that BMR have been selling, the TR1 notfications confirm this as a fact. We know that their shareholding has now fallen below the 3% threshold for disclosure. We know that while over the 3% threshold they were selling for 2.25p, way below the Bid at the time of the sales. And we know that after they dropped below the 3% threshold there has been a substantial number of shares sold at 2.25p, way below the Bid at the time, and which didn't have any impact on the SP.

And we also know that BMR have no source of funding except to sell assets, the main asset they have that can most easily raise funds are JLP shares.

I think probably worth looking at the AIM disclosure rules on what they actually have to tell us about.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/companies-and-advisors/aim/publications/rules-regulations/aim-rules-for-companies-march-2018.pdf

Rule 11: An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities.

** Two thoughts on this rule - Firstly, nothing much has been leading to significant SP movements, so they might have a good case that not all progress is going to have a major SP impact and doesn't fall under this rule. Secondly, development of Kabwe and their intention of getting a refinery is already knowledge in the public domain. Likewise, fine chrome and platcro are also matters that are in the public domain, so unless something has gone very wrong there might not be any disclosable news.

Rule 12: A substantial transaction is one which exceeds 10% in any of the class tests. It includes any transaction by a subsidiary of the AIM company but excludes any transactions of a revenue nature in the ordinary course of business and transactions to raise finance which do not involve a change in the fixed assets of the AIM company or its subsidiaries. An AIM company must issue notification without delay as soon as the terms of any substantial transaction are agreed, disclosing the information specified by Schedule Four.

** Thoughts on this - Sable is unlikely to fall into the criteria of being a substantial transaction and could be deemed a transaction 'in the ordinary course of business', and entirely possible that its being funded from revenue or finance, which isn't disclosable.