Member Info for Moleinahole

60m shares sold (less than many of us hold individually!) amounting to 0.381% of shares in issue sold and a 10.75% fall! Says it all really. Total opportunism by a few traders and the market makers.

Bad day here and in several shares. Complete opportunism and nothing to do with the company at just about any level.

Whamboy - not so good if intend to raise cash by selling FRR shares in £ and convert to dollars mind or paying YA in shares! So good for the oil, and good if we pay YA in dollars but not good if we need to use equity to settle debt or indeed it makes us cheaper to take over!

Joe as I posted yesterday do not under estimate larger and more sophisticated investors covering their positions with derivative CFD shorts. In that you could include Marco and mates. That way they have hedged the result.

By doing that however combined with the trading plan they could well have started a slippery slope here which generates its own momentum as you take out stops, pressure existing holders. Once the direction is clear you will then get other short CFD and Spreads joining in and people trading down.

It becomes like one of those scenes from living planet where a shoal of sprats is picked off by predators - dolphin, sharks, gannets and in the end whales.

If you have not hedged all you can do is hold your nerve and trust your research. One of the problems is that in this moment between drill and results people will start to question everything including their research. If the share price was a bit more stable they would be more relaxed. Its not - so its natural to question and for some people to worry.

Exonn will be looking ahead. Remember they are about to make FID on the large Romanian investment in Black Sea and I think must be looking at the offshore blocks in western Georgia. So it makes sense if they progressed those to be looking at markets irrespective of whether they are interested in block 12 or not.

I think the key thing about all the developments is a drive to get the industry going in Georgia as a whole. And I think that is a large part of the frustration of the SAOG with FRR in getting Block 12 producing. Obviously investing in the refinery and end product also adds value to the local economy so makes sense to do it there rather than ship oil out and import products back in.

Interestingly (but probably not linked) the block 12 PSA does have rights to build a refinery embedded in the PSA.

I doubt Brexit will have anything to do with FRR other than it's very existence weakens European cohesiveness when facing off against Russia. I would say Donald trump is a bigger problem with the markets and his meddling in Iran. Bexit is an unmitigated and unthought out mess it may take the uk markets down in time but if Frontera are lining up the deals we hope then it should have no real impact. We are listed in London but are an American company that operates in black sea region.

Yes - looking at the posts some people would feel naturally happier and the charty people like to look at things like the golden cross and the momentum. But I've long felt that with this share you could wake up to an out of hours RNS that is either good (or bad) that makes charts irrelevant. With the right (a deal) or wrong (arbitration/Outrider/no deal) RNS it will gap or you will not be able to buy/sell in volume actual shares (CFD/spreads might have a bit more leeway). That's the AIM game!

The golden cross we are waiting on is on the contract.......

Bongabob - I've been in this game for too many years myself and seen it all before. I get the frustration and irritation when the shares don't move as you hope and think they should. But in FRR case I can't fault the work done by the board over the past 2 years. What I have learnt is that you do need to accept that if you are a long investor you can expect a very long bumpy flight and in many shares no guarantee of safe arrival at your intended destination let alone when you think it will arrive or the price of the ticket! Frontera is an extreme example.

AIM is not for widows, orphans, anyone who absolutely needs the money or is of a nervous disposition!

We have never had so much information provided in the form of presentations, media and shareholder meetings each quarter over the last 18 months.

You have been given the initial flow rates and the wells are being tested. We have been told that if there was a material change it would be in an RNS. You either choose to believe the company has signed a MOU with BH and are in discussions with a 2nd or not.

The last RNS was 2 weeks ago. The main things that are kept in the dark are those subject to the scope of the current detailed contract discussions and the court actions around arbitration/Outrider. I would not expect any of that to be done in the gaze of publicity.

I'm interested in why you think the flow rates on 3 wells (which we know will be between 300 and 700 bopd between all 3 wells) would make a large difference in the current climate?

There has been no cash raise for 9 months - so given we know the company historically runs at a $350k a month deficit and they only had $600k cash at June 2018 then unless they have found a new benefactor you can infer that oil is being produced at higher volumes and being sold.

I'd be careful what you wish for. While testing the volumes (out of context may not indicate the potential and hence just issuing volumes may not be helpful to the share price.

The deal under negotiation is for a work program of a totally different magnitude and very likely aimed at different zones in the eldari b. That is what is important at the moment. Getting the right deal is more important than any old deal irrespective of what the short term share price is doing.

Apart from that an update that the arbitration request is closed/withdrawn/resolved and/or an update on Outrider would help more than flow rates.

Morning guys - been watching the past few weeks with interest as a long term holder where this forms a slice of my portfolio and with some warrants still to convert - never thought I'd be seeing a choice of it being cheaper in the market than converting!

Seems like they have timed the drill at a good time for gas pricing but a bad time in the wider macro economic/political cycle. The long wait and the GSA not arriving has not helped. Would agree unlikely at this stage there has been news driving the price. The drop started too early but has generated a momentum of its own.

Personally, not been happy about the timing of JP share option trading plan transactions but those don't explain recent moves.

I do wonder however if we are seeing at least some investors covering long positions with CFD shorts (in addition to the volatility with nervous sells and stop losses) and that is at least part of the dynamics at play here. The drops are being driven by the A trades not the O trades.

Each to their own but the volume is low and there is a bit of a risk off environment across the market and oil price has become volatile. I'm holding my nerve and not get drawn into trading games as the intention of some here is to start the share on a slippery slope and chase it down as is happening at SOU at the moment. It is a waiting game but some updates should be along shortly. The right update and you will not get back in easily as the shares remain pretty tightly held here inspite of the high number in issue the free float is not that large in this price range.

Read the seeking alpha gas article last night that has been posted on a few boards. That covered the XTO/Excel transaction and is well worth a read links back to the gas price spot price rises of 26% posted earlier. A compelling reason why a second major would be looking at gas.

AJames there are not that many deep drilled wells. Alot of wells for nstance in mirzani are shallow and are just lie producing. The deep wells have the cement problems as they couldn't manage the pressure and most of those are not in the zones with associated gas. Taribani has about 50 wells of which only 10 ever produced oil.

For gas ud1 and ud2 and the v# wells like v#18 were deep but there are not many of those. Which is why the gas play needs more siesmic to fix the 35 well locations for the Mtsare field development. Gas seems to be a wider spacing than the tighter oil.

There are hundreds of wells across block 12 in all the fields. Mirzani is littered with nodding donkeys producing 1 bopd per old well.

The 175/250 well plan depending on spacing s mostly new well locations in taribani alone. Of those there are probably 10 locations suitable for rentry sidetrack.

After taribani you have all the other fields many sitting on same geology and basin edge on the carbonate play.

There is plenty here to support a view that the gokden age is before not behind in Georgia.

Careful what you wish for with some of our loose ends. But I'm sure things are moving behind the scenes as FRR need the fuller or full field development at Taribani to be in place in time for the prime drilling season in Feb. Plans for that and lead times on equipment/personal mean it needs to reach some conclusions soon. The reversal in the oil price (hopefully temporary) will have added to some of the number crunching on taribani.

I've taken an absolute hammering over at SOU over the past few weeks so a bit of quiet is not always a bad thing for a share.

Duster short term I assume your comment is aimed at the traders and whoever has been selling under the bid for the past month.

The wider market is very bearish and oil is declining. By comparison FRR is holding up well against its peers over the same period. Frontera still has a few loose ends to tidy up (Outrider, possible arbitration and the finer details of the current jv arrangements).

The days of shares taking off on speculation alone to silly numbers on AIM are largely long gone. It will take a bit more substance to the current newsflow to get us to escape velocity.

We formed a fiends group for Frontera (FRR) (I'm a rep) for several years when faced with similar issues as you perceive here but worse! As a group we never intended to do anything other than improve shareholder communications and get some answers hence we most definitely did not intend to position it as an action group though at times it came close to that as we were put under a lot of pressure as small shareholders! You have to be careful as you will be perceived as either a threat or a nuisance - especially if you start to build up a high % holding and sabre rattle.

We only made real progress as a group at FRR by attending AGM in person, trying to be constructive (not destructive) in all interactions and gradually building up some relationships. Impersonal email type exchanges are generally totally ineffective. In time when the board were ready to communicate face to face they moved to accommodate and we now have quarterly UK shareholder meetings in London and get much more regular RNS/media updates having had half yearly conference calls as an interim step.

So it can work but it can take a long time to build the relationships up and even then you simply must respect the market sensitivity and not expect answers to questions you know they can't answer!.

The question here would be very much how the board currently view their retail shareholders. Anyone who has been to a meeting or AGM here would be best placed to judge that.

There is no way the potential relinquishment in any arbitration that FRR WILL vigorously defend if it progresses can involve anything other than the eastern part of the block. Mtsare, taribani and mirzani are all in varying levels of production. Listen very carefully to the last meeting on this subject. I came away from the meeting pretty convinced it is the eastern part and came away from the may meeting with the same impression.

If it was about cost recovery they would not have tweeted the section of the PSA in April when they did.

Because they have avoided answering any questions about oil production. You have been told if there had been a material change to what already announced they would report it.

As for the oil auctions I would remain pretty convinced that is profit oil from the other blocks. I really could not see why arbitration would have anything to do with changing that. We have been following the same process for 20 years

The arbitration. It's pretty clear is about them looking for relinquishment of the eastern parts of the block which have not been produced. I have not heard any indication the cost recovery pool is under debate and can't see why it would be.