Member Info for Moleinahole

Lubumbashi it's ok. It gives flexibility.

It's nothing to do with either BH or the 2nd major. You need to look at it as part of Frontera own debt restructure not those wider deals. Devex is thinking in the right way about the options it gives and makes an excellent point on the lien and vendor debt as we are carrying alot of short term debt so this deal was also important with year ends accounts to show financing in place for what has been a growing short term debt.

Makes the activities of the $5m man all the more intriguing.

With no equity element in the funding if you want a bit of FRR you need to get shares from somewhere else.......

With any luck this is the first of a series of RNS as various deals and litigation close and focus shifts to operations. The share price should follow that news cycle but feel much more secure this morning on that news regardless of what the short term share price does.

This is the final part of the restructure started in 2016.

FRR had limited options when the old notes expired but have had to work very hard with shareholders substantially helping in the turn around.

Having the ability to simply draw down massively strengthens the company position in removing Outrider and YA. It would also pay for a 50% share with BH of a campaign in 2019 or even pay it itself on a 100% go it alone basis.

Flexibility and options to operate is what a CEO needs. We just need Zaza to deploy the capital wisely and the golden age will indeed be before us. Very much looking like a US drive into Georgia and FRR finally getting some friends to back us.

Very good news indeed.

Skipper doesn't need a geologist non exec it needs a much higher oil price to make offshore heavy oil a viable commercial commodity. My heart sank on the Skipper RNS after the troubles with funding heavy oil at a company I care not to remember! They may go back to Skipper but I hope that's long after the gas is in the bag.

Trellis - exactly what upcoming projects would we need a geologist for? I would have thought Harvey was pretty much understood given the chance of success and once they have proved up the hub would they be looking for more small opportunities nearby or sell the lot?

Happy - given the performance of the holy trinity of Mr Parsons shares I'm not sure I'm pleased to see anyone associated with that lot here in any capacity what so ever. Nice easy money if you can get a "portfolio of non exec jobs" and a perennial issue with boards in many companies in my opinion creating a culture I'm not overly impressed with rewarding in many cases who you know and not what you have achieved.

Look on the bright side FRR is UK listed but is really a US company incorporated in Cayman and trades outside the EU in a commodity priced in dollars!

So if FRR are past using equity (in £) to raise money to spend in $ but is instead earning $ back to a share price in £ then the fall in the £ is probably good for FRR shareholders.

We have limited exposure here is Brexit.

Bigdave - I honestly don't think Zaza is "playing games" for his own benefit. This is deadly serious. He has invested like all of us.

People may well sell if the price rises. With the right news that is not necessarily a bad thing as someone needs to sell for others to buy. With the right news the only people who won't be happy are the shorters and bashers who will have to move on and find another target.

If you look at the underlying business there has been significant progress over the past 18 months. But magic wands are in short supply on AIM these days and this one is being done the hard way against significant constraints and dead weight. People looking for xmas pressies and the like probably should reflect on the market they are "invested" in. Its not like it was 5 or 10 years ago on AIM - its much more difficult environment.

TSBS the problems since 2011 ARE funding related. Be they YA or Outrider. The reason they have held us up is that the previous failures to generate revenue when they did have bountiful funding (and the loss of the EBRD loan following the Azeri goings on) meant the company could not raise funding in the post 2008 environment and then the commodity decline.

The company were left with a large debt on the balance sheet and high general admin expenses. For several years most of what was raised just paid those bills with very little invested in the fields. that has resulted in the SAOG arbitration debate as they simply had not progressed quickly enough.

The push at shareholder expense in 2016 and 2018 campaigns following the Varang no show for the 2015 campaign has been a herculean effort to achieve.

What you are seeing at the moment are outcomes of events and problems started many years ago. Most companies would not have been able to navigate through the barriers erected. Frontera are close to achieving what they have been trying to do for 20 years after the very first Niko well flowed at 960bopd and silted up!

Dave take a step back and have a look.

You have to balance the 2018 campaign likely final results and the prospective deals with majors and its implications on the prospective assets against the poor balance sheet and ongoing legal skirmishing with Outrider and SAOG/GOGC.

The volume has been pretty thin. The 5m/10m seller does not look like a PI and whilst there has been clearly been some trading going on here with people selling down in the wider risk off environment hoping to buy back later I would say that there have been as many smaller holders adding as selling. The balance in most days is this persistent background seller/transferee which still remains enigmatic.

Are the company busy? Well on the ground they have got the workover rig out and got the team cleaning out 3 wells and they will continue to be shipping out increased production from taribani.

Its 9 months since any placing for cash. Given at half year they did not have much cash and not enough for the historic monthly deficit by FRR standards that is unusual and means they are highly likely to be selling increased product to cover not just the deficit but the increased costs they reported as a result of the extended testing.

I think without the Outrider and SAOG arbitration detours we would have seen more in Q4. The share has tracked down a bit with the price of oil but they need to get these legal matters sorted and then they can resume focus on the field development. Not ideal but that's where we are at the moment. When I look at my portfolio of O & G stocks they have all been hammered recently - FRR has actually been pretty stable once YA stopped shorting the preference shares.

I think the date those have been pushed out to is a good indication that the company intend the 2019 program to be in full flow by then - the important short term news is how the legals are progressing to a conclusion.

It depends on what news you are hoping for.

The court case almost 100% there will be an update before Christmas. Whether its resolved or not depends on whether they decide to settle or not.

If they want to drill in Q1 2019 then there is a very reasonable chance of some further operational news. This could be just an update on the workover operations or it could be more substantial if they are ready to proceed either on their own or with BH as part of the definitive agreement. They equally could announce the results of the 2018 campaign or progress on funding the 2019 campaign.

I think todays OPEC announcement was positive for us planning the 2019 campaign.

The outside chance is a further update on the 2nd major but I personally see that more further out 2019 event but a "black swan" event on that can absolutely never be ruled out.

I personally would like to hear if there has been any movement on the arbitration request and proceedings in Q4.

The AGM is now overdue - but we may get notice for a meeting in Jan 2019.

I remain of the view that they need to sort out both the Cayman case and to a lesser extent the arbitration for the main news to progress.

correction: ...inside Ukraine...

Zoff the MOU goes back to when FRR were first looking at UD2 and around the time of the estimates of gas in place increased substantially. There has been a recurring idea and one that Steve Nicandros has floated a few times for LNG to be shipped across to Ukraine. The context is that LNG shipments are blocked passing Istanbul and so Black Sea nations wanting to avoid Russia needed to look south.

So I would think the talk was about some sort of oftake from Block 12 to supply Ukraine. Obviously that would require significant capital for the LNG processing and secondly actually producing gas in volume from Block 12 having drilled wells! Also at the time Sakashvilli (the ex Georgian PM) was a governor of Odessa the likely destination.

Since then Frontera have started to look at concessions inside Georgia so the focus in Ukraine has shifted to a license. But I don't think the MOU itself is dead. Also don't forget Steve N has special responsibilities for Ukraine as part of his US Chamber of Commerce position.

I would tend to not look at it from the FRR angle but look from the other side. FRR continue to have to scrap and fight to defend their rights and interests in Block 12. They have had to do it this year with YA, Outrider and SAOG/GOGC. At least two of those actions remain in play.

I would hazard a guess that given the 2nd major was further out that it suits not to be associated at this time and I'd guess that is at the request of the major not FRR. I don't think FRR would hesitate to name them if they could.

Baker Hughes is a slightly different arrangement and they were already associated with FRR across campaigns for many years and the MOU is a deepening of that relationship.

One is Baker Hughes. You have been told. The other is subject to NDA and you have also been told one of the deals was more advanced than the others. The pace and timing of such deals and announcements is not in the gift of FRR to give.

Aubree - have you looked at the wider market today? Everything is wobbly at the moment - shorters could make money on just about any share. As I have said before a large part of the blame lands firmly at Trump's door. He will go down in history if his tax cuts and trade war undermine the global recovery.

The international pipes run to the west of taribani - its easy to see on google earth but its cross the border in Azer.
At the top of block 12 it passes through what would be our shales play but close to Udabano/Mtsare with a main processing station just across the border. Theya re all with I would say 20 - 30 km.

Canny - Flaring - I believe they can't flare in production as it is specifically prohibited in Georgian Oil and gas law but during testing would be unreasonable! I suppose one grey area would be tolerance of it during extended flaring if you tested for a long time. But I'm guessing you would be pushing it if you kept drilling "test wells" and they all flared without a solution in place.

Ajames: If you look at the topography I doubt they would bother going to the Mtsare facility. There cold be a local connection at Despoleska I would think into the same local grid that would be nearer and there is an existing old oil pipe run you can see near the road from Taribani. But the longer game you look west across the border where much closer you have the large international export pipeline. I don't think the associated gas will be big enough to justify that - the deeper Gareiji under taribani would be when you look at that. The gas around Udabno is much more attractive in that regard as its closer to where the main facilities and pipe cross Block 12 near Garibani power plant. Hence the gas around Mtsare to me makes more sense in short term for second major. In future the existing facilities used for the shallow gas at Mtsare would be left for local network.

Perhaps we are going to buy a load of crypto machines and generate crypto currency with our gas to diversify!

R8 I know - but if you drilled 3 or 4 Eldari b wells all with associated gas you could only use so much power!