Member Info for Moleinahole

Yes its an interesting subject to do a bit of research on. Would have thought to reinject you still need to find a hole you reinject it. If its into the same reservoir you probably need to get some of the oil out first! well worth a bit more study.

Do Baker Hughes have any spare kit like that I wonder.......?

The other part to watch here if they go Eldari b is the associated gas. I do wonder if they have been installing or procuring a solution for the associated gas. They can't drill more wells into Eldari b without addressing the associated gas if they want to put them into production as they can't flare. So would expect that is an area they should have been addressing that we have not heard an update on as well. Outwith the other legal reasons that might also explain why Niko has gone out from Nov if they were to go to the Eldari b.

Free/Star - You are on the right lines of thinking. I'm pretty sure the plan is to choose from these 3 wells the best for a sidetrack into the Eldari b to go along with Niko. The Eldari B zones look interesting in this part of the field if you look at the old data maps in the CPR. I believe there are 10 old wells suitable for re-use in Taribani. We have done 3 and one of the others is Niko and this is the next 3.That would leave 3 old soviets of the lower hanging cheaper sidetrack drills to investigate before you have to do new drills for the full 3,000m. The wider field development plan is the 100+ wells over 10 years which is when you need a lot more kit bringing in.

And yes that works as either a further proving/exploration for the field or production wells in own right and could be part of part 1 and or part 2 of the definitative agreement being worked on. based on previous years they are likely to want to target Feb 2019 to mobilise the drill to site having used the work over rig in Dec/Jan.

Can't see working in the shallower Eldari a on those wells will achieve much. They need to sidetrack, new cement and powerful pumping equipment bringing back to frac Eldari a. I think they will be looking at the well integrity above 2000m and find the point below 2000m to identify the optimal side track point to go deep where a good clean drill and cement job is all that's needed.

If they held 250m shares in that period they should have declared a holding as we had a lot less shares then.

The share price was smashed in that period I remember it very well indeed by YA, DJ capital and Outrider and then by the service provider placings if they held 250m shares through 2016. If they built up to 250m in 2017 and sold in 2017/2018 then I would re-emphasise my point on who could be selling here. Such people could easily have entered at very low averages and still be making very good money throughout 2018. Crocodile tears are often shed here.

The question now is probably could you do the equity element after the non equity finance and indeed do you wait till after Harvey has added additional value? I trust they have enough sense not to give the company away and short change the current equity holders.

Does anyone know if they need to do it all at once for the FID or to secure the non equity portion or could the equity be staged?

All the "heart ache and failed promises since"......... since August 2017? Are you serious? Lucky you weren't here in 2016 for the insolvency and regular placings or 2015 for Varang or for the gas pipeline or 2011 for the restructure or 2008 for the war when we had virtually no communication from the company other than a quarterly cut and paste update!

The news over the past year has been positive. Both YA and Outrider and the debt position predate your investment decision. UD2 may well in time prove to be the bait to catch the 2nd major. If you invested in August 2017 the priority was a 2 well oil campaign with an exploratory gas well at UD2. Since then they have executed that campaign with 3 oil wells and gone deeper and advanced discussion with 2 partners while fending off the government and both YA and Outrider. We have been though plenty of interesting years and this one in terms of angst is way down the list.

Reading posts like those in this series about people claiming they know someone who sold 250m shares and themselves are effectively trading the company down and ask yourself is the decline in share price down to some mystery institution or just down to people selling in a thin market?

I really do start to think this share has been targeted by not just shorters but pretty organised groups of traders as well.

As a result part of me really hopes the company string this out for as long as they need and then just suspend pending deal. Way beyond February would not bother me either. If you were lucky enough to invest in August 2017 then you should be in profit. Be thankful for that as there are many who have supported the company for many years who are not and have seen the price down way lower than here and endured some real angst in prior years..

Probably T16 as that is the one planned for the next phase of work.....

Coggy - is he on Georgian Christmas this year by any chance?

Slight correction: ...centre left of taribani... (Niko and T39 and T45 are to the right of the field centre - Dino to the left).

Would tend to disagree.

1. I would be pretty sure the 2nd major is most interested in the gas. Given the climate change talk going on at the moment that is the future not oil no matter how attractive the low cost onshore environment is.

2. While the BH agreement is pending signing any of the 3 parts of the definitive agreements (and the company is engaged in its legal activities) the 3 well work over prepares the way should either the BH agreements drag on and not be signed or just to have a plan b in place. If you need to bring in a drill it needs to be part of a bigger program to justify the cost and having a 3 or 4 well campaign laid out enables a repeat of the 2018 program executed in Eldari b and applying the same techniques as T39.

The location of the wells subject to the mobilisation is interesting. They have moved towards the central right hand side of the area around the taribani centre. If you look at the old seismic plots for those areas the deeper Eldari b looks interesting and it covers the areas where they have had some of the most prolific eldaro a wells from soviet times.

So I would tend to look at the mobilisation RNS as demonstrating to partners, shareholders and stakekolders (like SAOG that FRR) is not sitting around doing nothing and has both a go it alone and a partner jv plan for 2019.

Trading is very sparse at the moment so these small sells of 2 and 3m are causing movements in price way greater than they really should in thin volume.

(Timster - Mole "The Grinch" is still not guessing Christmas prices!).

Timster/Duster - I just don't do guess the share price. The other thing I don't do is chicken counting by spending the money on whatever before concrete results! AIM is risky and FRR is high risk and can be unpredictable.

FRR of all shares is too unpredictable to guess a short term share price. Long term the price will find a level that represents a multiple of the assets/revenue. At the moment the company is at best running just below break even with a large amount of debt and some tricky stakeholders. As the actions of the stakeholders play out (be theyr Outrider, YA or SAOG, BH) the price will move.

The other problem is that this is both actively traded and aggressively shorted. That is a bigger short term factor as it means sentiment is a more powerful than anything fundamental and even logical at times.

Finally, as a long term investor I'm not overly worried about the short term as long as the company remains solvent and is progressing without excessive dilution and remains communicative to shareholders with a plan I understand.

So to answer a question like what is the share price at Christmas is not something I am tempted to try and guess but I recognise its a bit of fun so will be interesting to see who is closest this year!

Yes. I'm very sceptical about that number. We know other institutions have bought and held over same period (e.g. the feb placing with a lock in). So to me that number is unreliable and I ignore it.

Star - yes the placing in august 2017 was done at a very low level and done very quickly. I don't think at that stage they were investors and we had no TR1 from them. The other two puzzles in 2018 was who bought the underwritten part of the primary bid in feb and who were the institution that bought with lock in in Feb. The problem with those two groups is that their average is too high to be selling now. Equally, I just don't see this as vendors trading - the small vendors from 2016/17 are too small to risk holding FRR shares for any length of time. The larger vendors having waited 2 years obviously don't need the money quickly - so I don't think they would be interested in equity either. So I do tend back towards some sort of institutional activity. They have not been trying to take the share down as they have spread to get best price and manage the disposal/transfer - the TR1 limit should mean the holding had a ceiling in theory. The picture is clouded because I do think you have some substantial PI holders here who do trade largish blocks.

Duster - everyone watches the share price with the very challenging environment at a macro level. Corporate level for FRR the current activity going on in the background is pivotal. None of us should be happy about the various court actions we have had and continue to have which absolutely do hold the company back. I think resolving Outrider is the key at the moment as that should unblock the main news flow but the company can only move as quickly as the process allows. Meanwhile I am pretty convinced we are shipping and selling higher volumes of oil to keep the lights on.

Dusterhater - have a look at the RNS tab. Over the past few days you have had an operational update on the taribani workover and the Cayman court action. You have also have other social media twitter.

It might not be the news you want but don't twist a small decline in the share price in my opinion caused by traders into clamours for news.

Its simply not true you have no news. By any rational measure on an AIM stock you are getting news. When you then consider that they have active court cases and probably arbitration discussions with GOGC/SAOG we are doing well to get the news we are getting.

Star - I have my doubts about exactly who Kickmuch is and what they actually know - perhaps they would like to post again. They obviously read the RNs and the FRR website. But there is seismic on Basin edge so I'm not sure everything they say us accurate. In addition I'm not convinced this is vendor sales. The shares given to UNISERVE and CRAFT in 2016 are long sold into the market. The second tranche of small vendor shares were all sold into the market in 2017. The final $5.6m of vendor balances was never issued. So they can't be selling shares they have not got. I really don't see the 5m/10m sells as vendors - in fact I suspect they are a mix of traders and one of the places from 2017 - who got shares at around 0.10p.

If Kickmuch would like to post again then lets see what they have to say now.

So when you start trading and the share price drops as a result I assume we can look forward to not hearing complaints about the share price? That applies to all of the people who trade and then complain by the way.

Trellis it's more a wake up call to wider industry and politicians to stop playing games and start putting in place environment for business to invest.

With a supportive cornerstone investor and a high board commitment in the equity they would not sell cheap they fully intend to take this all the way to production and if this next step needs more time to get the best result then that's just where we are at for now.

The company have done everything they could on their own work items and shown clear thinking on the plan ahead to accommodate this bump in the road.

Trying to to raise finance with the bexit vote uncertainty especially anyequity element and with ongoing oil price instability which I'm guessing is used as a benchmark for gas pricing would make the outcome less certain.

With LOG agreeing to cover the general expensss gap from the delay from the loan the company has the flexibility to time this important financing to current shareholder and not those that come in on funding advantage.

I would trust the boards judgement on this. I dont doubt the case for development is sound and that we are indeed ready to go. With the Harvey well to look forward too as well this is just one of those things that happens.

The answer is still:

This is a US company registered in Caymans that has a listing on AIM in London.
The business is conducted in Georgia and all the oil sales are in dollars and the oil is sold into the international market and gas into Georgia market.

As a producer the company is now more likely to be effected by the drop in price of oil as a result of Donald Trump conning the Saudi into increasing production and starting a trade war that has damaged global demand.

Frontera as a share has been and continues to be plagued by traders and a campaign of shorting and malicious social media trolling.

The share has seen one or more persistent daily background sellers.

In addition the company is in the process of executing an important piece of legal action which has undoubtably
had an impact on sentiment while the company gets the house in order for the completion of due dilligence by one of the two majors.

I would also attribute some of the drop recently to people swapping in and out of this into other AIM shares (trading) and to a degree covering losses made on other shares as AIM has been hit hard over the last few months across the market.

So there are many reasons why the share price is where it is today. But Brexit is low down on the list other than the overall damage it will have done to sentiment.

Leave the Cayman business to the company. I would caution that you have no idea what the court case with Outrider is actually really about - let alone any evidence you could muster at this stage. The odds remain in favour of it being settled out of court.

While forcing a call on the company professional indemnity insurance might sound attractive to you it would waste management time and increase future premiums. I want them focussed as quickly as possible on resolving the matters in hand not adding additional complexity to the issue. Let them resolve it and get back to the main event - the 2019 campaign with BH.

Yes