Member Info for Moleinahole

Madpunter I have got the answer to your question on the oil auctions by the way from the company:

"Taribani, it has never being auctioned by GOGC and we’re selling it in a similar manner with Trafigura, Vitol, and BP. Auctions are for profit oil and for as called “below curve oil” which is GOGC’s share of crude oil in different PSAs."

This is reconfirmation of what we have been told several times at the meetings, it aligns with the PSA and notes in the various AIM listing documents and prospectus for placings. So you can't use the GOGC auctions to double guess FRR production.

A better way to look at that at the moment is that inspite of the repeated claims we are running out of money from certain quarters it is now 10 months since the last fund raise.

TSBS - there is actually very little information on T16 in any of the documents I know about Frontera. What the tweet shows is there is alot more information in the company possession than many realise. The CPR mentions T16 in passing only in respect of zone 9. But it is pretty near other wells that were the best historic producers.

The company are reminding people that these wells and much of the exploration program in taribani is not about wild catting - its about revisiting wells that were not worked on properly in the past on an active hydro carbon basin. If they have now got the correct technique to drill and cement these wells then its certainly more of a proposition than say a company like SOU where they don't even seem to know anymore where to drill!

The link got shortenned when pasted.

http://www.strandhanson.co.uk/media/1111/frontera-resources-corporation-aim-admission27jul11.pdf

Alot of the information is in the 2005 CPR. The other document always worth a read is the 2005 placement. If you search in google for Frontera, morgan stanley 2005 placement you should find the document.

While reading last night I also noticed on one of the schematics that the original T39 well was drilled to 3100m. So when they sidetracked T39 in the summer they must already have had a very good idea about the well as they had the old well logs. So was T38.

Looking also at the new prospective well locations. T24 that is out to the west. T16 is central to the field with T31 central but down a bit from T16. When you look at the seismic maps it looks like the deeper zones do look thicker as you come across from where they have drilled Niko and T39. So T16 and T31 would be the most likely targets with T24 more an outlyer.

I think they know alot more about this field than some people realise.

Wanger basin edge is almost certainly high on the target of the part of the license the government would love FRR to relinquish it has large prospective but not proven reserves. But FRR will fight hard to retain that play. Canargo drilled a well into Basin edge on the adjacent property. It's a play that should have good hydro carbons but which has proved illusive. The Lloyd well (no doubt in honour of one of out illustrious founders) came very close. We spoke when out in Georgia in 2017 to the guy who drilled it and they were very close to hitting the target when they reviewed post drill logs and drill information..

It's a very significant prospect but after the original campaign came up short it's been a question of cost Vs risk the other fields and plays are lower risk. They always intended to revisit with a more powerful drill and to fund that as part of a deal with a strategic partnership both to fund and tap expertise on drilling that type of play which should be analogous to similar carbonate plays.

At the moment taribani is lower hanging fruit but basin edge as one of the blobs in the block for a deal remains the medium to longer term intention. That is outside the scope of the current BH deal which is aimed specifically at taribani, mirzani and mtsare and in my opinion oil and the associated gas. I think the deep gas and possibly the shale in the west is what the other partner is looking at and basin edge is a third possibly separate part. That aligns with Steve nicandris comment on strategy in 2016 and Zaza comments at the 2017 AGM.

Frontera are firmly of the belief the play remains prospective and that the eldari a and b extends there hence the 5 year study to protect it.

Duster note and I didn't say you said is was a bad RNS either!

The important message is the moves in the share price at the moment on very small net volume means little significance can be placed on them annoying as they are.

Ask yourself why a large drop on net 20m sells!

It was a good RNS.

The fall today makes little sense an 8% drop again on net 20m sells 0.13% of the shares. We have seen this a few times now.

Mad - The golden cross measured like that is interesting. I find charting interesting to a degree. Such a long 50 and 200 average will smooth out a lot - but its missing the 25% drop in the last couple weeks - which would put the short term momentum downward if you compared say 20 and 200! The cross is effectively measuring the effect of the shorting in august and the news since!

Coggy the dynamic in Georgia is different. The conflict is frozen. Ukraine is an active conflict. Georgia have learnt their lesson not to provoke and are following a more sensible slow path based in large part around economic improvement. There is a big difference also in US companies entering Georgia and most have not returned to Ukraine. Ukraine will be looking for some support from Trump - so it will be interesting to see whether he does anything or not. An escalation of the conflict wold probably also increase the demands for Nord stream to be shelved in favour of gas coming from the south. So I would say that the action in Ukraine increases the importance of sealing deals like the ones being looked at for block 12.

The other interesting forthcoming short term development will be the G20 and the side meetings on oil supply following trumps failure to do what he said on Iran.

The president is largely ceremonial - the important person is the PM (and the man holding the strings Ivanashvili). But what it might show is what the trend is towards Georgia Dream in the future general elections. But its a healthy election and is good for Georgia considering the goings on over the last 20 years in elections in the Country and region generally. But I would agree block 12 will be a good news story once the deals are signed and the surprisingly quiet coverage will ramp up. Regional sensitivities no doubt play a part in how news is managed.

I see we are down a tiny bit this morning. The RNs can't be used to justify that - its factual and to the point. Wider markets are a bit volatile especially for O & G stocks given the oil price.

WH Ireland are correct in pointing to the importance being a further indication that the Eldari b will feature in the 2019 campaign. The Eldari b for a small extra cost per well gives you two plays in each well with 9 month pay back. Eldari B are high flowing wells so bring in quicker cash flow. The move to Eldari b would not be floated if T39 was not a success. Todays RNS is good news and can't be spun any other way.

Someone asked about Niko - have a read on this link. This also has good background on the other wells.

www.strandhanson.co.uk/.../frontera-resources-corporation-aim-admission27jul11.pdf

Puddy that is unfair. The rig is in the field all the time. They will do doing it very shortly to firm up the drill order for the 2019 campaign.

It makes no sense to order a full drill rig when you have not permitted and selected the following on wells.

Also if they do go eldari b they absolutely will have to have a solution for the associated gas. So cleaning the wells is a sensible piece of work to be getting on with at this time of year if you don't have the full rig.

The main news will I feel follow the resolution of the court case. That could happen very suddenly as I'm not expecting that to actually go to court. It's not in anyone's interest.

Niko was already revisited in the 2016 campaign to zone 9 and is currently in production with the 2nd generation 2016 completion. So is well understood.

Fund raise is unlikely for the wells. The actual campaign for this should be funded either by the JV or a profit share. Fund raise for general expenses will not be necessary as long as current production is around 450bopd from the entire portfolio. Given the known characteristics of eldari b I think T39 should be flowing well and Dino and t45 stabilised nto their own lower flow for longer period character. You can never rule it out but I don't think it is needed.

This will keep us focussed on the work program while the other noise works itself out.

Niko, T16 and T31 were the original Varang wells. All sidetracks.

So this is the start of the revised version of the Varang phased plan. This is company doing its own work pending the signing rather than sitting around doing nothing but you would think having consulted with Baker Hughes.

T24 I need to do a bit of research on. I'm guessing it is close to T23 which was the most prolific of the old Soviet wells flowing 875bopd from zone 14.

Well that does not surprise. It makes more sense to do Niko as part of a larger campaign. I have posted in the past on those wells they have been good in the past in eldari a and should be good in eldari b.

The work over rig will be the company own one so not going to cost alot to clean and check the wells for sidetrack rather than deepening. Once they have checked they can select which ones to follow Niko. By going eldari b they can get high initial flows and don't need to frac. What will be interesting as this campaign develops is how deep they go in the eldari b.

Pending the sgning of the definitive agreement a sensible low cost piece of work for when the agreement is signed.

As Madpunter knows my own view is that Frontera to my knowledge do not auction oil but sell at Batumi.

The increase in auction could easily just be stock oil from earier in the year saved up to sell at higher prices. Now the price is dropping again but could rise later if the US actually do what they said about sanctions then you would sell then. I would expect the other fields particularly those run by Schlumberger to be producing a bit more this year.

Seems like common trading sense to me - sell when the price is high and stockpile when lower. I wold not try to use these auctions as a proxy to FRR production numbers.

Coggy didn't reply last night as I spent 6 hours stationary on the m55 when 10 minutes from home last night.

Niko failed due to sanding attributed to poor cementing and a failed packer. I don't think the very lowest part was even cased properly which won't have helped.

That is why they were excited about T39. The original Niko open flow they attributed I think 60% to zone 19 and the rest the lower zones. It does show the potential of eldari b.

It really is strange that they did not get back into Niko and eldari b sooner. As a company that has to have been a mistake but perhaps they just had to get the drilling the technique and cementing sorted. Plus this was supposed to be done by varang! You have caused me to reread some RNS from 2012. I had not appreciated that the 2nd generation fracs presumably those used in 2016 campaign were designed by Schlumberger. Also Schlumberger did the review in 2012 including the mirzani and northwest extension. That is obviously adjacent to Schlumberger current block. So the switch from Schlumberger towards Baker Hughes today is interesting though Baker Hughes have been with Frontera for a very long time.

Zib it's possible but I don't think it was outrider. Now that's not to say it would not be someone introduced to Frontera by Hope. Remember we have the other hedge fund from Feb placing. Now what was more interesting was agreeing a 6 month lock-in for no obvious reason. That ended just as all the fun started with in August/September. So that looks more suspect to me than the drill fund offer. But you never know.

That is the excitement of the eldari b. Its unfracked - which is why they sent the unit back to Romania after Dino and UD2 and did not do zone 9 last time.

Eldari B is much better character than they expected. The data they got from T39 this time is significantly better than the data used in the old CPR which did some work on zone 19. The zones is bigger, its got better porosity and the associated gas was never recorded properly before. Niko always flowed well (960 bopd from zone 19 and some of the deeper zones) before it clogged and that was not stimulated way back then. So getting down under zone 19 again to see what the deeper zones could do next time they have a go at Niko will be very interesting.

If Baker Hughes also have some new ideas/technology to bring to the party then there is plenty to look forward too here once the other matters are sorted out and the fields move to full field development no doubt starting with the deeper eldari b which has a better profile for cost recovery given the higher up front flow profile compared to eldari a.

Ajames - Thats true of T45 and Dino in Eldari A but T39 will not have any proppant in it. Its the corrected drilling technique and the Baker Hughes cementing that will have won it for us in the end if they all flow. The extra power and propant was only for Eldari A!

That is the attraction now of taribani you have 3 plays in 1. Eldari A tighter fracked oil, Eldari b conventional oil both on top of deeper thick Gareji Gas. With good volumes of associated gas in the Eldari b.

A separate gas field over at Mtsare (of same chemical composition) with additional shallow field and shale gas areas.

Same geology as Taribani at Mirzani and a third play at Basin Edge.

No - the problem has always been getting back to the deeper zones with the correct drilling and completion techniques. You will find oil and gas everywhere but the wells have to be done properly. FRR have been frustrated by the long learning curve on the dilling/geology or the funding/political side. They have up to now never quite got the two aligned.

Hopefully we are close now to seeing the drilling, geology, funding and politics align.

You are correct its a prompt to focus on the prize and the assets. I'm privileged to have visited the block 12 mud volcanoes. They are in the area around Mirzani and beyond Taribani many km apart.

Having seen the travails over at SOU this week trying to work out where to drill - you don't have that problem in block 12 as you get some very obvious clues on the surface which is the old fashioned way before seismics and there is varying amounts of hydro carbons every where they have drilled!

Timster as I say its hard to guage what the "security" is. We do know Outrider are trying to have the injunction on it removed.

Could the "security" actually be the loan note itself rather then the security that underpinning the loan note!!!!! In which case FRR might be trying to stop Outrider moving it or selling on into somewhere they can't easily get at!

That would put a totally different complexion on the matters in hand and would align with the related legal action in US we saw earlier in the week.

Blown doubt that will not apply here. You need to be looking at the company articles and probably Cayman case law around fiduciary duties of a director.