Member Info for Moleinahole

Pyro these I'm pretty comfortable we are aligned here with the Board. In 2016 I was less convinced!

In fact I think the conversion of the RPN into equity even at a discount and subsequent board purchases and indeed possibly the Uniserve/Craft 2016 transactions could all have been at least designed to ensure a blocking % at any time was in friendly hands in the event of a takeover attempt. Its not like there have been no attempts! Remember the odd event when they reviewed the register a few years ago to vote on changing the quorum for the AGM?
Had almost forgotten that part of our history!

Zib/starrage I'm being balanced (they are way down my list of likely candidates) but on AIM I would absolutely never discount anything.

I'm not spooked at all - there will not be many people with a bigger holding than mine here who have held through the worst of times. But its unusual going into news for someone to be selling/transferring shares at a discount!

When looking at this my eyes tend to fall on the others in the list. I think we have discussed before Cayman rules I believe allow larger holding (6%) and there is nothing to stop holdings being broken up. Yes there are rules on holdings but there are many ways round them and these 10m a day trades actually are not billions but hundreds millions at most so well within the holding sizes I have listed.

Star I have had this discussion with Levan several times over the years when we have suspected iceberg holdings here and the company position has always been that it is the holders responsibility to declare. I think we are dealing with volumes at the low end of the reporting scale. Hell we had 100m being sold in 2016 in a day! This is small but interesting none the less.

Bridge: here are some candidates if you read between the lines in my post I can see many and all could have alot of shares.

1. Someone buying ya shares a bit at a time over many years or the Reuters institution.
2. Hedge fund in Feb now outside lock-in.
3. Investors from August 2017 placing.
4. Surplus of underwritten primary bid Feb 2018.
5. Vendor shares nice they dropped below 3%.
6. Service providers uniserve and Kraft I think sold in full. But we do not know if they sold them onto to someone else.
7. Hedge fund with lock-in from Feb 2018.
8. YA could have retained some.
9. I tend to discount the board (Zaza and Steve) but they are outside their lock-in now and they did buy some shares at a lower price so not beyond possibility. But again would expect it to be reported.
10. People have suggested outrider. Possible but that should have been reported as a related party holding and would have been visible on the register.

As I say I think it's most likely something planned could be for tax reasons but could be a preagreed transfer. If it was aimed at knocking the share you would sell in volume. This feels very managed to me. When it stops will be interesting!

Indeed they are persistently selling under the bid on a volume that could command at least the bid price. They either need to find a new broker or they aren't really sales! But if they are a transfer where is the opposite buy transaction to level the book (like you get with a Bed and ISA) - todays 10m looks well disconnected from the sell at the lower price? Maybe the shares are being accumulated by a broker or MM for an entity and their identify gets revealed once the process is complete?

The volumes are starting to rack up and are beyond PI levels so that leaves only a few candidates.

1. The board - not impossible but seems an odd way to go about a transfer.
2. YA - seems unlikely as they don't hold normally but the reuters institutional holding count is unexplained.
3. Institutions that held shares for the small vendors - this dropped below 3% so we think those all sold in 2017.
4. Institutions or individuals that participated in mid 2017 placing. Possible candidate as they are in good profit.
5. The hedge fund that participated in the feb supplementary placing with 6 month lock in. Only just in profit at this level - so unless they hedged with derivatives seems like they would be a holder.
6. An excess from the primary bid in feb? as above.
7. vendors with balances due but shares not yet issued pre-selling. Been going on too long.
The next reason that comes to mind is some sort of VWAP to control a price for some sort of conversion/placing. well if you were doing that you would do more to supress the price.
8. Shorters - I've seen similar goings on at HNR which went on for a long time and the reason was attributed to warrants culminating in a placing with primary bid. I'm not aware of any open warrants here. but the same shorting circle attempted to attack HNR. If its shorters why not increase the volume and intensity?
9. The final candidate would be a predator attempting to suppress the price using a trading strategy to obtain a low Vwap for an offer. Seems very unlikely and ineffective.

Either way its not normal to sell under the bid at low volume repeatedly! Its possible its for tax reasons I suppose and the price is less important than executing the transaction possibly even before news lands leading to a gain that can't be managed so easily to shield from tax.

Kempey - Zaza tends to work out in Georgia and London (and a bit of Houston). The much maligned Steve is the Houston connection. Steve is well connected in the Houston oil scene and people often forget he is now on the US Chamber of Commerce Energy committee.

Anyway also good to see Levan slide 67 at the AMCHAM meeting on 31st Oct asking questions:

AmCham Georgia hosted a members’ only Luncheon with the Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia, Mr.Giorgi Kobulia. The minister presented on the ongoing projects and future plans of the ministry. The presentation was followed by a lively Q&A between members and the Minister.
http://www.amcham.ge/album.php?item=330

One other little teaser I noticed the other day. Who do you think took over XTO - Steve comparator company that he saw FRR being like in the future?

Anyway another good week. Nice being in the blue.

We have been proving oil I would say for the majority of the 20 years.

Gas the extent is possible hence the CPR is based on 12tcf not 202tcf! But equally I do think they know alot more about the gas from visiting wells like V#18 in the past to get even the 12tcf CPR number!

The gas needs 3d around Udabano/Mtsare and we still don't have a proper commercial volume flowing deep gas well at the moment - quality is there but volume depends as the oil has proven modern clean drilled and completed wells.

The oil organic growth on its own is very valuable. The gas numbers are a different quantum altogether.

Good to see our friendly representative Ted Poe on Georgia. Be interesting to see how much we spent on lobbying in Q3 - the returns should be in pretty soon if not already.

If they do anything involving a dividend pre YA being shuffled to the side they would get to participate. So they would get paid off first then dividend!

I think people need to think about a jv on taribani growing the business organically with BH as a partner. Then a farmin probably on the gas to start with which may grow into something else once a bit more proving is done - with the proving up a key part of the deal e.g. re-entry UD2/New well and 3d seismic. Any surplus generated as part of any of the current activities will first be used to repay debt then it will be used to ensure working capital for activities including Moldova.

Any accelerated development at taribani is profitable after 8 months per well. So the target for 2019 should be 5 to 10 wells if they get a second rig in - Zaza has previously described that as to how to bring forward the WHI model numbers. That would have a very positive effect on the revenue in its own right in 2019/20 while the bigger gas play gets some separate attention and other targets in block 12 like Basin edge remain future possibilities.

I would never rule out a surprise one off here but that has never been the plan unless we got an offer was too good to refuse as Zaza has said previously.

Interesting aren't they. Always under the bid by a couple of points - the sort of ting that happens when you do a Bed and Isa and the broker trades it at the lowest quotable price.

The concerted effort needs to be on focusing on the asset and the company. Stop posting about them. Post about that and shift the agenda the positive.

Zib last post on the crew and then can we return to the real action in Block 12 and Georgia.

They will have increased their shorts. They must be using CFD not real shares unless they are also trading the ranges with real shares combined with CFD both long and short depending on which direction they are betting on. That would also explain why its not enough to take a CFD you also need to try and undermine and get YA to sell or frighten other holders. Unfortunately YA aren't selling like they used too and the holders are not so easily frightened. They are now gambling as we are to a degree that there is a deal on the table. One of us will be proved correct.

So the case for FRR includes YA waving the white flag and BH signing a MOU and confirmation the second major subject to NDA is in play. Against that we have past history offered as evidence so far.

Its make your mind up time.

As I say lets get talking about the asset again.

Pyro I'm intrigued by these trades as ever (its been a subject of debate for many years!). I doubt they are still short unless they have now covered with a long CFD - I doubt the main protagonists are that stupid to sit holding an open short into a rising market.

Well today is T+10 since YA deal was signed. In the past its been my impression that YA have traded on T+10 terms as that has tended to align with their preselling in the past. I wonder if YA have been unwinding the trades with the help of their broker? Very strange really but whatever is going on the inertia it has caused is starting to be overcome by a steady procession of news and buying.

With two good RNS issued no need for a speeding ticket it obvious it should have been higher. As I posted yesterday FRR has a habbit of just taking off when momentum traders try and join.

I hope the shorting crew are starting to capitulate and daily seller/transfer running out ....looks like the brakes are easing off.

This is not about luck. This is about determination to see a plan through and believe in your convictions that Block 12 was worth the blood sweat and tears to get to this point over 20 years.

Its a valid question to ask why is the price today 15 points below where we were in May and what is holding us in this range. I would hazard a guess its the dead weight of shorters and litigation (be it YA/Outrider/GOGC) don't help. The current poor balance sheet and high amount of short term debt will also not help. Past disappointments maybe?

What would it take to move it up? Maybe closing by shorters? Resolution of all remaining litigation? End to the daily sales (which are deliberately aimed at containing but not crashing the share price)? Signing of the definitive agreements with BH that demonstrate the plan going forwards? From past experience however FRR has often moved for absolutely no obvious reason and carried on once the momentum traders arrive. So far we don't seem to have attracted them. Perhaps the wider market risk off environment that is happening across the market is a factor? Go and look at shares like SOU.

I am of the view that Outrider though potentially problematic has been "spiked" to enable this deal to proceed, YA is a non issue now and aligned with the likely program, GOGC should be happier with FRR bringing a strategic partner. The balance sheet will be sorted out finally with BH helping accelerate the field exploitation. If the wells are continuing to flow then the balance sheet and cash flow will sort itself out as no suppliers that want future business would want to upset the apple cart.

FRR have always sailed into strong political, economic and geological headwinds with the share pirates looking to raid at every opportunity. But making forward progress we most definitely are even if FRR have to keep tacking. Today has been another good day so I'll enjoy a dram tonight and leave the prophets of gloom and doom to worry tonight.

CF read the RNS very carefully.

When it talks about monetisation of the gas the first place that will occur is in taribani associated gas. That has to happen to execute a field development plan involving zone 14, 15, 19, 25. You can't flare gas as per Goerogian oil and gas law. Coggy posted yesterday on the conventional gas being a longer term proposition.

The BH RNS talked about Mtsare, Mirzani and Taribani. All those are producing oil fields. It is entirely possible that BH would do the oil and improved recovery from the existing oil fields (Mtsare and Mirzani). The conventional gas needs further delineation from seismic before a full field 35 well drilling campaign. The 250 well oil development plan for taribani is pretty much ready to execute even if you still would like to decide whether zone 25 is included or not. The gas is not. post UD2 the plan was that the best way was either a sidetrack or a new exploration well. The battle of Ud2 was a short term setback but has yielded important long term information which may yet result in a significant contribution to winning the gas war in block 12.

So I'm not surprised the gas play is behind the oil. Equally I would not surprised if whoever takes more risk on the gas might want a farm in rather than a jv.

Cheer up Bridge its one thing being cautious but try and enjoy the ride a bit from here as hopefully the scary part of the journey is behind us!

I think you'll find in terms of service providers I have said in the past BH with their foot under the table would get first refusal over Schlumberger else we would have used Schlumberger in the 2016 and 2018 campaigns. As to the identity of the other suitors I've left that to others to speculate but the US connection here has been and continues to be very strong that its hard to see in the first instance a Houston based US major is not very high up on the list.

We have speculated about many thinks but I think you might find in the end a lot will come to pass. Some of Steve's commentary from 2016 could prove prophetic.

For the record that's mine.

Very frustrating here. The delays on the current work program have not helped sentiment and the multitude of straws in the wind which all have potential but create a confusing picture of where the priority lies. Things will settle and turn round once the new wells are flowed and they make some decisive moves on the other plays. One feels they may up the pace on the others once more revenue is in the bag from the current wells and the referendum is settled.

The interesting thing to watch now will be how the mm handle the spread and buy/sell sizes. If they have not got a supply in the pipeline from placings to YA and whoever has been selling/transfering stops then the dynamic will favour the bulls and the bears will at some point have to adjust. With so many lth already in their seats with the popcorn and watching it does need some new money to move things on. So far FRR has limited institutional interest. The arrival of that will be the moment we know that the prophets of gloom and despondency have been banished.

I still think they are sorting out the mess from august/september when YA sold shares they did not have and the market remains unbalanced. The missing shares had to come from somewhere as the MM also had to serve a boom in the share sales up to 0.45p at the same time and the price has not dropped in the interim enough to close out everything! The MM may well be short here and we are not helping by not selling.

The share price is a thermometer in the short term but in the long run it is a weighing machine.

Let's see what it measures once this current round of good news completes its cycle.

Thombola how many super majors are developing Shah Deniz?

It's a good RNS on the back of good news from YA settling (I wonder why they settled!) and the BH RNS. The reason Zaza has been confident recently comes from having something in your back pocket to take on those who have been trying to bully Frontera and its shareholders. Well I hope he carries on how and proves the doubters wrong.